The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Interesting night. It just churned down slowly. Couldn't find a great shorting opportunity.

The open will be interesting tonight. It has pushed below the lows now by about 12 points. If it heads lower it could keep going and set up a great opportunity tonight!

 

[pavilion103]

Not sure if this was stupid or not but last night I considered putting in an order when I went to bed.

6430, stop 6500

I thought 70 points is a lot of money for me at the moment so it might be silly if I don't quite know what I'm doing.

I was thinking of a position trade, if it took out support, which it now has. Will look for a short near the open maybe.

 

[tech/a]

Not sure if this was stupid or not but last night I considered putting in an order when I went to bed.

6430, stop 6500

I thought 70 points is a lot of money for me at the moment so it might be silly if I don't quite know what I'm doing.

I was thinking of a position trade, if it took out support, which it now has. Will look for a short near the open maybe.

PAV

Don't take trades like that if a loss of that magnitude would damage
your capital base.
All the hard work you've done preserving capital could be un done in an instant!

Patience you'll get on a running position trade soon enough!

 

[pavilion103]

PAV

Don't take trades like that if a loss of that magnitude would damage
your capital base.
All the hard work you've done preserving capital could be un done in an instant!

Patience you'll get on a running position trade soon enough!

I agree and that is why I didn't take it.

A loss of 70 points wouldn't give me a whole lot of emotional grief, but it would wipe out some good profits in what could be a reckless move.

I need to put myself in the position for a big move, but maybe now isn't quite as higher percentage time as it was a few days ago.

I'm thinking that when I think a position trade is on the cards, to maybe take 2 contracts in a normal trade and hold one if it becomes a runner. It's at these times of large profit potential that I'd want to be a little more aggressive, because the opportunity cost of missing a move is larger!

A few strategies going through my head.

 

[peter2]

Well said tech/a. A very timely reminder for this thread.

Classic newbie mistake: Impatience.
Symptom: Considering a gamble for a big result while ignoring your primary goals to build capital, gain experience, acquire skills.

(Edit)
Pav: You can put yourself in a position trade using a 3-5m chart if you plan for it.
It requires a very different trade (and risk) management style than what you and others are illustrating in this thread. You are either intra-day trading during the UK session or not.

 

[pavilion103]

Well said tech/a. A very timely reminder for this thread.

Classic newbie mistake: Impatience.
Symptom: Considering a gamble for a big result while ignoring your primary goals to build capital, gain experience, acquire skills.

I agree.

I think at the same time that IF the chart does pose a great position trade (not saying this one is), then it does make sense to take a bit of a bigger risk if it presents great profit potential.

If we are talking like 150-200 points then forget it. It's silly. If it is 50-100 points, then possibly depending on the chart. A 500 point move would make a bigger difference than a 100 point loss. Having said that, you'd want to be very sure. Even then I'd probably be trailing my stop where appropriate.

 

[Trembling Hand]

(Edit)
Pav: You can put yourself in a position trade using a 3-5m chart if you plan for it.
It requires a very different trade (and risk) management style than what you and others are illustrating in this thread. You are either intra-day trading during the UK session or not.

Yep.

 

[pavilion103]

I understand what you're saying.

 

[tech/a]

I put this move at 6291 on the immediate longer term.
If we want to look at a macro approach to the index
we can have a look at it

Plenty here to ponder!

Click to Cringe---ERR expand

 

[tech/a]

Now I don't want to be labelled as Biased.

But You have to admit that when a number of indexes show very similar patterns
As it did in 2008!!

Something is about to happen.
I feel there is a good chance that that will be BIG.

Pav
Look seriously at those position trades!!
Remember these are monthly so you could time it better
than now for some.

 

[pavilion103]

I agree. This is why I am considering greater risk to profit from this opportunity should it arise.

Now how to go about it is another question for me.

All looking very weak to me

 

[kid hustlr]

Monthly XAO and FTSE are really interesting.

Tech, in your experience, would you expect the recent FTSE highs of 6861 (on the monthly) to be tested to a greater degree or do you think the price action at the start of august was effectively 'that test'.

P.S you're only labelled bias if you get it wrong.

 

[tech/a]

Monthly XAO and FTSE are really interesting.

Tech, in your experience, would you expect the recent FTSE highs of 6861 (on the monthly) to be tested to a greater degree or do you think the price action at the start of august was effectively 'that test'.

P.S you're only labelled bias if you get it wrong.

I cant be sure.

But what I can say and see is that right now there is no real sustained push towards the highs of any bourse.

Had an email discussion with PAV and suggested that a position trade from here may take a few goes before it gets some breathing space.
IE The high is likely to be tested---or it may well already have been tested.

So for those who don't want to place a 100 tick stop (or so) the option is to keep setting the trade and suffering the frustration of being stopped out at B/E or close while we wait for a thrust lower to give space.

Everything seems to be rolling over so I will also be looking to get set.
To do so Ill be looking at a much higher timeframe'(Daily/Weekly) and using the index itself.

Ideally getting set short this week earlier was the play! (The day the FTSE dropped 100 Ticks and we/I were playing the wrong side!)

But not too late.

My immediate thoughts.

The weekly FTSE looks very much like a wave 1 of a possible 5 wave correction on the weekly
This is where we should be looking at timing.
Any test of that high would in my view be an entry opportunity.
Any thrust lower also the earliest available short play chance (NOW).
Stop at the top of the possible wave 1

Bit wide but if it goes no choice and should be able get on a lower wave 3 which wont re visit the high.

 

[pavilion103]

Any implications for our momentum portfolio?

Or as long as the setups are there we take them? That's how I understand it. When things turn down the setups will simply no longer be appearing?

 

[tech/a]

Any implications for our momentum portfolio?

Or as long as the setups are there we take them? That's how I understand it. When things turn down the setups will simply no longer be appearing?

Yes there are.
As we have seen in the portfolio it is behaving like everything else.
No momentum to the up side.
Frustratingly being stopped out of good setups.
Starts turning over on themselves.
All early signs of lack of demand.

So I'm looking to see if there is a breakdown of 2 things.
Firstly ---continuation patterns if they dry up.
Emerging patterns are being stopped more than anything as profit or losses are taken on any sign of strength!

Then of course the index it self seeing that roll over.
As there would in my view be a trigger from Overseas
the portfolio would be turned off once this occurred.
nothing is making strong profit at the moment as we can see
with all of the methods trading on ASF at the moment.
Its a real struggle.

Who'd want to trade SHARES for a living!

 

[Trembling Hand]

nothing is making strong profit at the moment as we can see
with all of the methods trading on ASF at the moment.
Its a real struggle.

Who'd want to trade SHARES for a living!

I wouldn't say nothing. I would say who would want to trade momentum for a living?!

Here is the daily P&L for my month so far,



Clearly in worst to best rather than date.

 

[tech/a]

I wouldn't say nothing. I would say who would want to trade momentum for a living?!

Here is the daily P&L for my month so far,

View attachment 53932

Clearly in worst to best rather than date.

Yes I think the answer to

Who'd want to trade SHARES for a living!

Is they don't!

 

[kid hustlr]

Sold 6437, initial stop 6440.5

took it at 6430 feel like a dingus now.

 

[pavilion103]

Well I'm out of action.

Bloody IB margin BS.

I'll have to sell a couple of Aussie Stocks, holding too much atm.

They said they should have the margin issues sorted out in a couple of weeks.

 

[tech/a]

If your doing ok with your stocks then fine

If not---but you'll have to wait for tomorrow!

short 26