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The transition to Futures trading

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havaiana said:
I can't for the life of me work out what this is and I have such a sore head now. I'm going to have a shot at it in the hope you will come back and answer

time?
and maybe for the second one current volatility or something along those lines?
Click to expand...

Sorry bit tardy on replying. But yes Barney had it. You can predict time 100%. The other that is very reliable is Range. Add the two together, as I do on some setups, and I find that in the markets I follow there are lots of trades to be taken based on an entry at one extreme after its run for a secret Freemasons pre-determined time. I don't wait for a pause or a slowing in volume - quite the opposite, I will standing in front of any move. The "fade when it seems like the worst time to do it" trade. Then the exit will be close to a set time after the turn.... if there is one.

Frank's work is based on similar ideas.
 

Yep makes complete sense.
Average range is X 1.5 x in the first 30 min good chance your going to fade---As a loose example.
 
I used to have a system that traded on the DAX, open range breakout or ORB (also called Initial Balance). 60 minutes has been the most common time frame from memory on allot of markets....

I have studies on initial balance duration for a few markets, can post if anyone is interested.

For example here is the range considering different IB durations on the SPI.

So can anyone list the trade ideas that some from these stats?
 

Attachments

  • SPI IB Durations dist.png
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Interesting, have you have tried to filter by range, so something like;
just the days after an inside day or
or only if the previous day was the smallest daily range in x days

Basically something that will create a sort of systematic triangle?

Editied.
 

I only tried that with the DAX, i tried inside days and GAP days. GAP days led to a higher probability that the Initial Balance would be broken.

On CL for example, figures from another forum, roughly 65% of the time the high or the low will break. 35% of the time both the high and the low of the 60m Initial Balance Range will break.

I can in theory, have this information for any market i have data for. So if you would find this useful i could arrange it to have it posted by Monday, if my eLancer 's not too busy
 
At a crucial level 6523.

Interesting to see which way this goes.

Got home at an interesting time!
 
pavilion103 said:
At a crucial level 6523.

Interesting to see which way this goes.

Got home at an interesting time!
Click to expand...

Me too, just back.

Looks like if you had picked the trend that began ~8pm, you were away.

So simple, the clues were all there, and yet so hard !

Easier to see on the 75 tick chart imho ....
 
I don't mind waiting for the major resistance levels. Then if it consolidates possible hit it with another contract.

Looking to see how it behaves around 6575 if it gets there.

I'm not usually on this late. What time does the FTSE close? Or liquidity dry up?
 

Varies depending on daylight savings time in UK and Australia. Currently, a little after 1AM AEST is when things start to wind up with my favourite "bucket shop" provider.
 
pavilion103 said:
Long 6538
Click to expand...

How'd this end up Pav? brutal downthrust in the last 20 mins of trading so hopefully you took your profit and were catching z's by then!

Nice '3 rips to a low' on declining volume at the start of last night which eventually marked the low. Each retracement was pretty big as well. Need to be aware of these things (not that I was trading last night)

6.36 inside bar might have produced a nice entry? All good in hindsight.
 
Didn't quite go as I'd hoped. That trade only produced 8 points profit. One of the deep retracements to 6545 took me out. Gotta be careful of this. Starting to get a better feel for how they take out stops.

Was looking for about 35 points on this move. Didn't quite work out but happy with the trade.

I'm not disappointed I didn't get in earlier in the day. Didn't see anything that I liked (wasn't able to read it), so best to step aside.

A good feeling getting the stop to BE and sitting back with 30-40 point upside potential and worst case scenario a BE.
 
Thanks for those stats canoz.

Am currently in the process of working out how long to 'hold em' for.
 
DAX long 8265 if Taken

---taken!

Stop 52



To B/E--65
 
Nice trade Tech, bit of short covering there...
 
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