The transition to Futures trading

[CanOz]

zzz, expecting some chop here...might have a snooze

 

[kid hustlr]

Just another perspective. I rarely give a toss about volume. I personally have never seen a bar complete and considering the action and market position gone "gee that was a surprise" or gee that was a signal I missed.

I actually think it is just another lagging indicator.

Yeah fair point T/H.

A few of the set ups Pav and I have been looking at I Feel work better on lower volume (or more accurately decreasing volume). I remember you saying a while back that the best break out trades are the ones where it cuts through a price and there is just nothing above/below it to hold it in. It can just run on absolutely nothing.

 

[tech/a]

I actually think it can be a leading indicator.
But I also think few can read it correctly.

Most of the time it's telling the exact opposite
to what people think is being indicated.

 

[kid hustlr]

zzz, expecting some chop here...might have a snooze

Yeah its pretty slow.

I'm long here @ 6487.5, I got hit and it immediately went against me but has recovered ok now. initial stop 6479.5

stop to b/e most likely get stopped I reckon

 

[Caveroute]

Just another perspective. I rarely give a toss about volume. I personally have never seen a bar complete and considering the action and market position gone "gee that was a surprise" or gee that was a signal I missed.

I actually think it is just another lagging indicator.

Yes, I agree, especially for futures

However if your a VSA/Tradeguider enthusiast I guess your locked in, not that I know anything about it!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Yeah fair point T/H.

A few of the set ups Pav and I have been looking at I Feel work better on lower volume (or more accurately decreasing volume). I remember you saying a while back that the best break out trades are the ones where it cuts through a price and there is just nothing above/below it to hold it in. It can just run on absolutely nothing.

Yeah but is that "decreasing volume" actually decreasing price advancement? (lack of activity = lack of range = stuck/stopped).

Do you need the bar/s to complete to know its a good set up. And does it increase win rate? Because it almost certainty increases your stop size.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I actually think it can be a leading indicator.
But I also think few can read it correctly.

Most of the time it's telling the exact opposite
to what people think is being indicated.

How can it be a leading indicator when it has to happen before it can be read? You are waiting for it to happen first. You cannot place a trade based on its information before it happens because there is no information, therefore its lagging.

 

[CanOz]

How could there be any leading indicator in the futures or FX markets? Wouldn't the quants have that figured out already and be arbing away any edge out of existence before a mere mortal could exploit it?

The only leading indicator we have is between our ears for this game.

 

[kid hustlr]

Yeah but is that "decreasing volume" actually decreasing price advancement? (lack of activity = lack of range = stuck/stopped).

Do you need the bar/s to complete to know its a good set up. And does it increase win rate? Because it almost certainty increases your stop size.

I feel like you're making the point that 'I should be able to see this in the depth well before it gets printed on a piece of paper.'

Hard to argue with that statement and I have no doubt it would decrease the stop size.

The bars do help paint the recent context though.

 

[Trembling Hand]

How could there be any leading indicator in the futures or FX markets? Wouldn't the quant have that figured out already and be arming away any edge out of existence before a mere mortal could exploit it?

The only leading indicator we have is between our ears for this game.

I know 1 that's 100% accurate.

And another one that's pretty accurate.

Any guesses what they are kiddies?

 

[Caveroute]

Slightly off topic, but you might find this of interest.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cm0ZLiuGiY&feature=em-subs_digest

 

[Trembling Hand]

I feel like you're making the point that 'I should be able to see this in the depth well before it gets printed on a piece of paper.'

Hard to argue with that statement and I have no doubt it would decrease the stop size.

The bars do help paint the recent context though.

Nah I'm not trying to smash you over the head, just give another view/perspective. For me the conflict with others approaches comes from me not giving a lot of weight to TA as a short term trading method. Especially entries.

 

[CanOz]

I know 1 that's 100% accurate.

And another one that's pretty accurate.

Any guesses what they are kiddies?

No idea, please...the suspense is killing me now

 

[kid hustlr]

Nah I'm not trying to smash you over the head, just give another view/perspective. For me the conflict with others approaches comes from me not giving a lot of weight to TA as a short term trading method. Especially entries.

TH how could you ever come across as trying to smash someone over the head?:axt:

In all seriousness the way I've traded the curve this week I probably do need a good smash over the head. This time next week I'm gonna be on the street or even worse, broking.

I have no doubt I'm giving up some expectancy by 'trading the charts' and not learning to read the ladder. That being said we are still looking for the same things, those good at reading the tape might just be seeing it a little quicker than I am.

All in good time though I can learn these things, best I understand the basics first.

 

[tech/a]

How can it be a leading indicator when it has to happen before it can be read? You are waiting for it to happen first. You cannot place a trade based on its information before it happens because there is no information, therefore its lagging.

I'll show you in a minute just mark up some charts

 

[CanOz]

Hmmm, bit of spike, short covering? Don't see any news?

 

[Caveroute]

short 6499, top of range

stop 6500

 

[CanOz]

short 6499, top of range

stop 6500

yesterdays VPOC on the FTSE is 6506, this might get tested. Thinking more push for the DAX too

 

[barney]

I know 1 that's 100% accurate.

And another one that's pretty accurate.

Any guesses what they are kiddies?

Lol .... I'd like to hope you haven't wasted your time "educating" some of us wannabe's (that would be me) around here TH

I'm hesitant to even comment cause I believe I am close to "comprehending" order flow based on what you have said over the years, but ....... (Range/Percentage that a move has moved relative to Time/time frame/ time of day etc etc would be a good place to start looking .....)

 

[Caveroute]

yesterdays VPOC on the FTSE is 6506, this might get tested. Thinking more push for the DAX too

Maybe, I'm a KISS man myself.

That's keep it simple .... btw.