The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Thought the same thing.
Down 15 for the night.
QE will be interesting. Won't impact me. No trades on.

Net for the week = -$375

 

[tech/a]

OK Bed
Set buy stop to 10256
Stop at 91

Didn't get to B/E so shortened target.

Night all.

 

[tech/a]

Needles to say I was stopped.
Taking a long term position from a 2 min chart is a little crazy!


Click to Expand

 

[pavilion103]

Optimistic. Low percentage. But not silly.
I've nailed 1 min chart entries at the low before and they've held for 2-3 days!

But this chart from yesterday is so typical. Always easier in hindsight.
Only a stop at the low or within a few ticks of the low holds.
This gets tested so often.
One of my entries was 77,71 long which was exited at around BE.
When I took it I knew I was hoping a bit and that it would come back. I left my stop at 73 which was below another bar. Alternatively I could have reentered.
But they love taking out a good setup at the low.

Then it flies 100. It is just so typical.
So often it pays (on these days) to get in right on open with a stop below the initial low. Just risk 5-6 points and leave the stop at the low.

Just some of my observations that I see so often!

 

[pavilion103]

For those more intelligent than me...

What does QE mean now?

Does it mean it will likely keep the market moving up in the medium term?

Will it be anythjng like the US

 

[tech/a]

For those more intelligent than me...

What does QE mean now?

Does it mean it will likely keep the market moving up in the medium term?

Will it be anythjng like the US

Generally short term positive.
Quantative easing just gives governments the licence to print money and pay their debts.
Which in turn increases public debt as they issue bonds to guarantee the money print.
Bonds have a rate which need to be paid and a revolving expiry date.

So in the end the short term gain adds to the long term pain.

Governments default and all hell breaks lose!

 

[Trembling Hand]

Needles to say I was stopped.
Taking a long term position from a 2 min chart is a little crazy!

I'm very surprised that you thought holding a position through the announcement was anything but a stupid idea. Especially one that wasn't monitored.

 

[tech/a]

I'm very surprised that you thought holding a position through the announcement was anything but a stupid idea. Especially one that wasn't monitored.

No it was always a stupid idea.
In hindsight its still stupid.

 

[notting]

From what I was hearing before the fact, alot of people had the same stupid idea.
Machines ate em up.
Watching to see if this Europhoria will have legs like the US QE did for the US.
What do they have over there any way apart from, Paris and Dyson vacuum cleaners?

 

[Trembling Hand]

No it was always a stupid idea.
In hindsight its still stupid.

Ballsy. It was exactly as flagged weeks ago yet it still whipped 100 points both ways pretty much instantaneously...... twice! Had there been something of a surprise.........

 

[tech/a]

Was taken out around 30 mins before the sweep.

Id like to know how many trades took the contracts.
IE 1970 contracts and X trades.
Then 5000 contracts for X trades.
Then 3700 odd
Who's getting set for what direction---long---I think.

As you say if something un predictable came out!
Plus positions below the sweep are set!--

Not that ballsey 1 contract.
50 contracts would be plain dumb not ballsey.

Anyway I was satisfying Wsys request.

 

[pavilion103]

Well hey like I said. Had you taken one within a few points of the low at the open and left the stop you'd be 100 up plus the potential for this to keep pushing up now. 5-6 points at risk not to stupid if the announcement had potential to move things.

I wasn't too far off!

Risking 20 points would be stupid IMO when anythjng can happen but 5-6 I can understand.

 

[tech/a]

NEXT

 

[Trembling Hand]

Id like to know how many trades took the contracts.
IE 1970 contracts and X trades.
Then 5000 contracts for X trades.
Then 3700 odd
Who's getting set for what direction---long---I think.

Not many. And probably was just a few minutes trade for "them". Those announcement sweeps are different to the good old days (pre 2007). They just used to be almighty sweeps in one direction a few seconds after the ann and then either keep on churning in the same direction or fade and relatively slowly roll back to mean, depending on the larger time frame set ups. Not any more!

They have turned into nasty whipsaws that give very little indication of the next 2-10 minutes let alone the rest of the day. I think it has turned in to an instant type trade for algo hedgies and prop who get set and just push and flip back then square off with the larger volume available now.

Basically they used to be fun playing with good set ups beforehand. Now they are just widow makers. :evilburn:

 

[Trembling Hand]

Risking 20 points would be stupid IMO when anythjng can happen but 5-6 I can understand.

But Pav that is my point. If you think that your stops are worth anything in these announcements you will have some nasty days ahead.

A stop of 5 points is just fantasy when there is news like this. You are talking 100 point blow outs if you are lucky. Ask the CHF traders whats possible and they will tell you that 1000s of ticks! Your stops are not what you think they are.

 

[tech/a]

Licence to print money if your big enough.
When volume on each side is low enough and the algo can work that out.
Sweep and set-- profit.

 

[avion]

How was Hokkaido TH? (Have you done the trip...?) :frosty: Welcome back...

 

[pavilion103]

But Pav that is my point. If you think that your stops are worth anything in these announcements you will have some nasty days ahead.

A stop of 5 points is just fantasy when there is news like this. You are talking 100 point blow outs if you are lucky. Ask the CHF traders whats possible and they will tell you that 1000s of ticks! Your stops are not what you think they are.

Ok I see your point.
That makes sense.

I didn't realise you could be so exposed. I thought maybe lose a few points but you reckon I could be taken out well below my stop?

 

[tech/a]

Ok I see your point.
That makes sense.

I didn't realise you could be so exposed. I thought maybe lose a few points but you reckon I could be taken out well below my stop?

Yes can happen.
EG a small flush of 100 ticks below your stop when your executed.
No big deal if its 1 contract---but start multiplying until it hurts.
Then till you cant pay the call---actions over-----price is where ever it settles and your DONE!

thing is these aren't outliers they're orchestrated!

 

[Trembling Hand]

How was Hokkaido TH? (Have you done the trip...?) :frosty: Welcome back...

Great as always. But I will be back there next week. Just taking a 1 week holiday from my holiday. Its tough being away for 4 months straight in paradise.

Ok I see your point.
That makes sense.

I didn't realise you could be so exposed. I thought maybe lose a few points but you reckon I could be taken out well below my stop?

Absolutely. If someone throws a 1000 lot 50-100 points away from the market(which is exactly what they do regularly in these ann) your stop will trigger and only be left with the next way way out orders in the order book.

But it can get even worst if you are not monitoring these trades. Since all the rule changes since the flash crash & GFC stop orders in most exchanges are actually not true 'at market' orders. The exchanges will only accept stops that are set for example 1% away from the trigger. So they are really limit orders. If the sweep goes past your limit price and doesn't return your stop is meaningless. If it keeps running you will wake up and find the market 2-6% past your worst case scenario. You guys really need to get your head around this with announcements and over night trading. Stops are fine in a normal market, useless in a smash up.