The transition to Futures trading

tech/a · 16 January 2015

pavilion103 said:
The main dilema for me was my psition trade.

When the market smashes down so hard I want to take the big profit. At the same time I figure it would take a lot to then turn around and take out the highs. I'm only in by about 110 points now and with current volatility that isn't much.

Given my target was 6150-6200. Maybe lifting at 6240 like I did my other one would have been smart given 50-100 points to gain and 300 to give back. However, my thinking was that things look dire and it could go further. It's always a dilema but just need to make decisions after analysing each day and stick to them.

DOW still looks very weak. That's the other consideration for me.

Interesting.

But one decent push up and I'm gone.
Some resistance above which is good.
Hoping for a down night from the open!

PAV

You witnessed an OUTLIER.
Not the sort of price action you generally see.
You should incorporate a plan for outliers and if your lucky enough to be at the screen then
buying back at low levels if you see them and can get off in that instance is great trading!

Your thinking has to be around the outlier and its effects on the market your trading.

The market is being influenced by a rare event--- so a standard position and understanding of
what's happening around that position is at best tenable.

Easy in hindsight

pavilion103 · 16 January 2015

tech/a said:
PAV

You witnessed an OUTLIER.
Not the sort of price action you generally see.
You should incorporate a plan for outliers and if your lucky enough to be at the screen then
buying back at low levels if you see them and can get off in that instance is great trading!

Your thinking has to be around the outlier and its effects on the market your trading.

The market is being influenced by a rare event--- so a standard position and understanding of
what's happening around that position is at best tenable.

Easy in hindsight

Well yes. This is exactly the point.
I have no plan for an outlier.
Probably instinct was to get out. Original plan was to stay in. I didn't want to break my rules. But I didn't have a plan for outliers whereby exiting is an exception to my initial rule.

I think given my time again (not just in hindsight but in future instances), I'd exit. A bird in the hand......

But I can't be upset that I followed my plan. My own ignorance and lack of consideration of such outliers lead to confusion. I was forced to process information in real time rather than having a default decision incorporated into my plan.

Happy to close out 200 points.
At least I wasn't stupid enough to just leave them all and end up with nothing.
I had a clear idea of how I would trade intra-day positions in the case of an outlier. EXIT at the first sign of the down move ehalting and reversing. I got a great exit right near the low.
Calm enough to let it run down.
Smart enough to get out at the first sign of this halting.

Let's see what happens tonight.

tech/a · 16 January 2015

Outliers can come in all sorts of timeframes
The GFC lasted weeks.

pavilion103 · 16 January 2015

tech/a said:
Outliers can come in all sorts of timeframes
The GFC lasted weeks.

How do you recommend someone like me deal with various outliers? Or at least how to approach developing an approach?

pavilion103 · 16 January 2015

DOW futures down 150 at the moment.

SPI in a decent down move today.

CanOz · 16 January 2015

tech/a said:
PAV

You witnessed an OUTLIER.
Not the sort of price action you generally see.
You should incorporate a plan for outliers and if your lucky enough to be at the screen then
buying back at low levels if you see them and can get off in that instance is great trading!

Your thinking has to be around the outlier and its effects on the market your trading.

The market is being influenced by a rare event--- so a standard position and understanding of
what's happening around that position is at best tenable.

Easy in hindsight

That "outlier" is turning into a black swan, fxcm is in trouble now too.

cynic · 16 January 2015

CanOz said:
That "outlier" is turning into a black swan, fxcm is in trouble now too.

I recently received the following advice in a pop up message on one of my forex accounts:

"...would like to notify you that margin requirements for CHF Pairs will be adjusted immediately due to recent price changes. Please Check your..."

It appears that misery does indeed like company:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-franc-move-cripples-currency-brokers-1421371654

I was rather surprised by the comment about one broker forgiving negative client balances and am wondering whether that might be pursuant to specialized contractual agreements (i.e. guaranteed stop losses etc.).

pavilion103 · 16 January 2015

This is just not behaving as expected.
My position trade has already come up once and had a failed test.
This is the second rise and is weird action.
I'm moving my stop to the high of today to lock in around 100 points. All handy towards my goal of $50,000 this year.
If it falls over night I will attempt to get back on early next week.

One of my rules is that if it doesn't act as expected get out. I've had a balance of leaving it and now locking in some good profit.

pavilion103 · 16 January 2015

SPI setup today.
Example of a limit order after a re-test + consolidation

Literally turned it on for 5 mins and this came up. No intention of taking a trade today.

Lifted for 30 points. No waiting around.

pavilion103 · 17 January 2015

I've been very open with my journey. I have wanted to give a unique experience on a form for people to see day-to-day how I have transitioned from a futures trader beginner to being profitable. I have discussed strategies, setups, mistakes etc.

For the first time I want to give a peak into my analysis at the end of the week. My spreadsheets are much more detailed and record other information/charts/breakdown of markets but this is a bit of a summary. This is a peek into how I like to analyse things at the end of the week.

*Note these results are with the assumption that my FTSE position trade will be taken out overnight at 6,450 where my stop is.

This has saved me doing the analysis over the weekend. I can forget about trading totally for 2 days

This week gone is my biggest every profit week. Closely beating my previous best.

After a good start to the year well above my profit target (and expectations), the goal is to remain focused and stick to the $50,000 profit target, not chase the stars. Maybe in doing so I will reach them anyway.
At this stage locking in a $1,000-$2,000 at a time is very much the priority rather than risking it to make more on trades (unless a pre-identified position trade).

peter2 · 17 January 2015

Nicely done, Pav. Do you think you would have accomplished this much if you hadn't blogged your progress from the start?

Would you encourage others to do something similar?

ps: I'd keep the lines but get rid of the projected figure. My biggest losses have come soon after my biggest wins.

pavilion103 · 17 January 2015

peter2 said:
Nicely done, Pav. Do you think you would have accomplished this much if you hadn't blogged your progress from the start?

Would you encourage others to do something similar?

ps: I'd keep the lines but get rid of the projected figure. My biggest losses have come soon after my biggest wins.

I agree. Projected figure is stupid at this stage. Really is a meaningless exercise right now. Even an average is only useful with a good sample size.
I dont intend to post results like this up again in the foreseeable future. This is just a look into what I'm doing in terms of some end of week analysis. Given that I've been so active the last 2 weeks I figure everyone has seen how I'm doing so no harm. I'll be keeping results more private now.

Blogging - for me this has just been a fun part of the journey. I don't think it has had a major impact in my success. I'm passionate and this is an outlet to share things with like-minded people. So I wouldn't necessarily say yes or no for others to. Personal preference IMO. It might put too much pressure on some.

But certainly it's had a positive impact and I have taken ideas on board with feedback.

What I would encourage others to do is find a good mentor.
Tech has helped me tremendously from the start until I could stand on my own feet.
He has fast tracked my development so fast that I cannot express.
Charts, comments, emails.
Apart from diligent study and commitment THAT has been the major factor in my progress.

pavilion103 · 18 January 2015

For those who don't know... US public holiday tomorrow.

tech/a · 18 January 2015

pavilion103 said:
For those who don't know... US public holiday tomorrow.

Great I'll nick over there and get a day off!

ThingyMajiggy · 18 January 2015

pavilion103 said:
I agree. Projected figure is stupid at this stage. Really is a meaningless exercise right now. Even an average is only useful with a good sample size.
I dont intend to post results like this up again in the foreseeable future. This is just a look into what I'm doing in terms of some end of week analysis. Given that I've been so active the last 2 weeks I figure everyone has seen how I'm doing so no harm. I'll be keeping results more private now.

Blogging - for me this has just been a fun part of the journey. I don't think it has had a major impact in my success. I'm passionate and this is an outlet to share things with like-minded people. So I wouldn't necessarily say yes or no for others to. Personal preference IMO. It might put too much pressure on some.

But certainly it's had a positive impact and I have taken ideas on board with feedback.

What I would encourage others to do is find a good mentor.
Tech has helped me tremendously from the start until I could stand on my own feet.
He has fast tracked my development so fast that I cannot express.
Charts, comments, emails.
Apart from diligent study and commitment THAT has been the major factor in my progress.

Nice spreadsheet pav, is that automatically done or do you add in all your trades at the end of the day/session?

The mentor thing must be a huge help, especially from traders that are actually making money themselves. Tech is great with his help, as is TH. Wish I could get more from them, but don't want to bother them too much, plus need to put some effort in and do the hard yards yourself to put into practice what they're passing on etc. Screen time screen time screen time!

pavilion103 · 18 January 2015

ThingyMajiggy said:
Nice spreadsheet pav, is that automatically done or do you add in all your trades at the end of the day/session?

The mentor thing must be a huge help, especially from traders that are actually making money themselves. Tech is great with his help, as is TH. Wish I could get more from them, but don't want to bother them too much, plus need to put some effort in and do the hard yards yourself to put into practice what they're passing on etc. Screen time screen time screen time!

With the sheets, all I enter is my total net points at the end of each day and the rest automatically calculated. I've put formulas in the cells and linked them together.

pavilion103 · 18 January 2015

This week.....

We have seen some strength towards the end of the week, however we are still at resistance and until it's taken out I am unable to be confident to the long side. The past 2 weeks I have been confident in the immediate direction and was aggressive and capitalised. In my mind now I am taking a pause and waiting for further information to re-assess. If the high is clearly rejected then I will look to get back in to the short side. I am not really wanting to trade too much while I am unsure. Monday I will take a look, but I won't be trying to hit home runs.

I'm also entering an interesting period of the year. Like last year I am doing my Bible course and the times are Monday 6:30-9:30, Tuesday 6:30-9:30 and Wednesday's during the day. This commences in 2 weeks. So effectively for 2 months (until D/L savings changes) I will not be on at all on Monday's and Tuesdays. Given that I have other commitments at times too I will be trading 2-3 nights per week for 2 months during this time. It is my final year of study and just the price I have to pay this year.

Keeping this in mind I will strongly consider the times when I can hold trades to capture moves when I am not at the screen. If I feel that those opportunities are there I may trade that way. It may also make me more interested in the SPI, where the hours suit me.

Things to consider...

tech/a · 19 January 2015

DAX short 10197.
If I get taken.

pavilion103 · 19 January 2015

33 points on FTSE.

Got on at the high. Low volume. US closed.

No stuffing around 33 points is 33 points. Lock it in Eddie.
Tomorrow I can look for a bigger move.

tech/a · 19 January 2015

pavilion103 said:
33 points on FTSE.

Got on at the high. Low volume. US closed.

No stuffing around 33 points is 33 points. Lock it in Eddie.
Tomorrow I can look for a bigger move.

Yeh arrived late to the party.
Dead
Cancel order back to cricket.
Nice little trade PAV

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