The transition to Futures trading

[tech/a]

Yep my thoughts too. Looking for a short setup form this consolidation.

First trade would have been in 6471, out 6441 - 30 points.

Let's see what happens in this consolidation...

- - - Updated - - -

Now looks to be moving up a bit. No test of the consolidation highs. Will wait for another setup.

Off to dinner.
leave you with this.

 

[pavilion103]

Interesting inside bar

 

[pavilion103]

Some personal notes that I wrote down in my "Futures Master File"

- See BE trades as exceptional, disciplined trades - not as frustrating trades)

- Move to BE ASAP. I can be wrong an infinite number of times and will never muck up my R:R.

- Highs and lows will both be tested. Wait for BOTH to be tested. Don't be hasty.

- Many many opportunities will come each week. Be patient. Just don't lose much.

 

[pavilion103]

Not the best R:R with support below. But I was stalking this move. Low risk area. Topping behaviour.

 

[pavilion103]

This might benefit some

 

[tech/a]

Nice.
Hope your still short it looks really weak.
I'm not trading finished for the night.

 

[kid hustlr]

I really like the look of that last trade Pav, As you note the bearish behaviour in the background (volume resistance as the duckman would say) is a huge plus and your can set your stops nice and tight given the tight consolidation pattern.

As an aside, Usually I would set my stop one tick above the reversal bar as well (like you did) but in this case I think I'd be tempted to have it a couple of ticks higher. Maybe 6450 as it's one tick above the higher volume reversal bar from a little earlier. Pretty nit picky though.

See picture.



I swear this game is easy. Look for areas of high volume, study the patterns and the reaction of this area and set your trades accordingly.

 

[pavilion103]

That area of high volume on the low was the exit.

I looked for another trade as it consolidated but not forthcoming. It looked weak with a lot of little up trusts and bearish behavior but it didn't eventuate.

Appears easy. But to really "get" this it requires a lot of pieces to come together. Look at how many mistakes already I've made in this thread. Can't get them all right but I guess the loss limitation is what keeps us in the game.

Not sure about easy. But definitely simple.

 

[kid hustlr]

That area of high volume on the low was the exit.

I looked for another trade as it consolidated but not forthcoming. It looked weak with a lot of little up trusts and bearish behavior but it didn't eventuate.

Appears easy. But to really "get" this it requires a lot of pieces to come together. Look at how many mistakes already I've made in this thread. Can't get them all right but I guess the loss limitation is what keeps us in the game.

Not sure about easy. But definitely simple.

yeah that 'easy' bit was me talking to myself trying to convince myself I can do this. Great trade, one for the goodies!

 

[pavilion103]

yeah that 'easy' bit was me talking to myself trying to convince myself I can do this. Great trade, one for the goodies!

So what exactly is your background and experience with this. I know you've been on the sim. Are you recording your stats?

Have you trades equities?
How much time have you spent on education? How long have you been looking into trading for?

Sorry if you've answered some of these previously. Short memory.

 

[kid hustlr]

So what exactly is your background and experience with this. I know you've been on the sim. Are you recording your stats?

Have you trades equities?
How much time have you spent on education? How long have you been looking into trading for?

Sorry if you've answered some of these previously. Short memory.

I'll PM you so as to not clogg up the thread.

Tech, if you get a chance could you take a look at this? 10 year bonds - 15 minute chart

 

[Trembling Hand]

Tech, if you get a chance could you take a look at this? 10 year bonds - 15 minute chart

11:30 fireworks.

 

[kid hustlr]

11:30 fireworks.

yeah ta mate I didn't take it for exactly that reason, just interested as to whether its an ok set up.

not sure if the HSI moves over aussie data but good luck!

 

[kid hustlr]

I'll PM you so as to not clogg up the thread.

Tech, if you get a chance could you take a look at this? 10 year bonds - 15 minute chart



View attachment 53292

I took this trade long @ 96.255 stop set at the top of the highish volume wide range bar @ 96.235

Still interested in your thoughts tech.

As an aside, the intuition of buying this thing after it has already some 15.5 points in the last 24 hours is mind boggling haha

 

[tech/a]

I took this trade long @ 96.255 stop set at the top of the highish volume wide range bar @ 96.235

Still interested in your thoughts tech.

As an aside, the intuition of buying this thing after it has already some 15.5 points in the last 24 hours is mind boggling haha

Ok I dont have this chart.

The bar you have highlighted with really low volume.
In this context is NO DEMAND.

Youve had a huge gap and a corrective consolidation and that is a pause.
Inside the corrective consolidation is this No Demand Bar.

If it was me Id have set a short order off the low with a view of a partial gap fill.

Thats about all I can tell at this point.

So what happened?

 

[kid hustlr]

Ok I dont have this chart.

The bar you have highlighted with really low volume.
In this context is NO DEMAND.

Youve had a huge gap and a corrective consolidation and that is a pause.
Inside the corrective consolidation is this No Demand Bar.

If it was me Id have set a short order off the low with a view of a partial gap fill.

Thats about all I can tell at this point.

So what happened?

Thanks tech, i'll write up the follow up now. I think I'm still I confused by the low volume bar, could you go into a little more detail? (I'm a little slow perhaps). Isn't this a pretty standard break out where it booms up, pulls back slightly, is unable to fill the gap (bullish) then begins to head back up towards the highs and (hopefully) break again?

Perhaps my understanding of the low volume bar is still off. I understand we need confirmation from the next bar but we are trying to build a context as to where the pressure is. It's that context which I'm struggling with.

 

[tech/a]

Thanks tech, i'll write up the follow up now. I think I'm still I confused by the low volume bar, could you go into a little more detail? (I'm a little slow perhaps). Isn't this a pretty standard break out where it booms up, pulls back slightly, is unable to fill the gap (bullish) then begins to head back up towards the highs and (hopefully) break again?

Perhaps my understanding of the low volume bar is still off. I understand we need confirmation from the next bar but are trying to build a context as to where the pressure is. It's that context which I'm struggling with.

I feel your confusion. $1000s are made on it!!---Kidding.---sort of.

Pretty easy.
All bars should be read IN CONTEXT to what the Price action is trying to do.

In THIS CASE.

Huge effort to alter direction (Bullish)
Then a consolidation and some reversals (Bearish to Neutral.)

The LAST 2 BARS are certainly telling us that there is no effort to push this higher.
If there was youd see demand in volume.
A reversal bar with volume would indicate Supply.

 

[kid hustlr]

I feel your confusion. $1000s are made on it!!---Kidding.---sort of.

Pretty easy.
All bars should be read IN CONTEXT to what the Price action is trying to do.

In THIS CASE.

Huge effort to alter direction (Bullish)
Then a consolidation and some reversals (Bearish to Neutral.)

The LAST 2 BARS are certainly telling us that there is no effort to push this higher.
If there was youd see demand in volume.
A reversal bar with volume would indicate Supply.

thx mate. I think I just need to work on the context, that reversal off the highs was quite strong and I think I need to recognise that better. As you say its the last 4-5 bars which are important.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Huge effort to alter direction (Bullish)
Then a consolidation and some reversals (Bearish to Neutral.)

The LAST 2 BARS are certainly telling us that there is no effort to push this higher.
If there was youd see demand in volume.
A reversal bar with volume would indicate Supply.

I just don't know about that Tech. I can just about guarantee that bar and the ones around it will 80-90 % of the time be very very low volume and very low range. The reason being is that the trading floors that provide all the liquidity (over 50% in just 1 floor) are deserted....... completely. So if you are going to be taking that as a significant bar its going to trigger just about every day.

The profile of that market is nothing like a EOD stock or even equity index futs.

 

[kid hustlr]

Appreciate the input TH. Completely agree with how this market is different to a stock or index future, they just don't trade the same. I think I touched on it a while back when I said that these markets just 'don't chart well' and I think that's what I was getting at. When this contract trades at night I read the 'low volume bars' with a grain of salt. As you said the other day though its all relative to the time of day you are trading.

Tech,

As I posted above I ended up taking that trade. I was comfortable taking this in the more 'classic breakout trade' It went well and I took a small profit. It didn't pop initially like I was hoping it would, it kind of staggered for 5-10 mins then it popped nicely, I was able to move to b/e pretty quickly with all things being equal. Exited the trade based on an area I deemed to be resistance as well as a number of things I saw in the DOM.



it has since turned around a fraction but it wouldn't surprise me if it pushed to the upside again.