The transition to Futures trading

[dlineinvestor]

Not everybody has your IQ

Nothing to do with IQ .. Experience "yes
Entries need to have an edge if you set entry orders where trapped traders are going to exit that is your edge.
EG I did it today and it worked, set short orders where I thought longs were going to exit .... I never use to think like this before ..... that's what I took from his posts.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Where I think LONGS will exit next

 

[tech/a]

Where I think LONGS will exit next

Other than the small consolidation
What else indicates that this is where longs will or are exiting?

 

[dlineinvestor]

Tech
I see a few other reasons as outlined on chart, but feel free to add anything I've missed.
I can't say they "will but "if they do I'll be in short on a stop order ...
I'm not short atm.
Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Just interested in your analysis.

 

[payday]

Tech
I see a few other reasons as outlined on chart, but feel free to add anything I've missed.
I can't say they "will but "if they do I'll be in short on a stop order ...
I'm not short atm.
Cheers

My 2 cents based on your chart is this : I see lot's of tails on that hour chart around where you have set your stop short entry order. To me, I see this as prime buying territory - not shorting. I look for those tails as clues as to where the buyers are lurking. I would be expecting a pinnochio lower through that line you have drawn, and then a reversal from there back through that line you have drawn. My logic is simple - traders see that broken line - enter short, buyers pick it up and squeeze the shorts as price breaks back into that range. All of a sudden, the shorters are losing money, they add to the order flow producing a big squeeze up. Of course, all this is subject to change as price bars progress. The scenario I have described is what I naturally would like to occur. I like those "false break" setups. They are my favourite to trade. But, conversely, if I see the bears gathering strength, as would be indicated by bearish bars and buyers no longer stepping up, then I would change my mind and join the crowd and go short. My way of thinking is not set in stone. It changes depending on that market conditions and how I am reading the price action bar by bar by boring bar

 

[Trembling Hand]

Tech
I see a few other reasons as outlined on chart, but feel free to add anything I've missed.
I can't say they "will but "if they do I'll be in short on a stop order ...
I'm not short atm.
Cheers

That is a dubious Bearish wedge is it not?

 

[tech/a]

That is a dubious Bearish wedge is it not?

Is likely to be a Chanel sometime this week.

In general I don't disagree with the analysis.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Is likely to be a Chanel sometime this week.

In general I don't disagree with the analysis.

Yeah far enough. I just never like those CFD charts. They for some reason just never look right. Especially when going out to the SYCOM session. But each person sees different stuff I guess.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Tech,
If you don't mind commenting

On average ... % wise.

After setting SL to BE, how many times does price action come back to your SL, to close the trade ?

Hoping to use your experience to see if it is a good policy for me.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

If I'm impatient and go looking for trades rather than have them scream take this --- idiot!!

Often--- frustratingly often!

But each time it hones my skills and without a great deal of financial damage.
But as said before when we get it right it doesn't come back!

 

[pavilion103]

Tried to go long on open. Down 14 points overall from that.

Now short from 72. No idea where this will go. I thought 40. Now it's below maybe 00.

 

[fiftyeight]

My time in exile seems to have proved a success, for now. I missed my short by a few measly points twice, but have n gone on tilt and sold at market "just" to get in.

But sooooo many points missed

Still deciphering you reply TH. I have a few thoughts but ill ponder them over my holiday and hopefully arrive at an answer my self.

 

[CanOz]

That is a dubious Bearish wedge is it not?

Its a wedge, its channel, no its a wedge...

I like when wedges break really convincingly, this is a dribble more than a spurt...

 

[pavilion103]

I'm out for 50 points. I only had the one contract on tonight.

Reasons for exit. .

1. I'm going to bed and don't want to leave it overnight. We aren't smashing down so 50 points is great for me.

2. 50 points is in the zone of taking profit when not in a huge trending market.



There was no technical reason for me to sell. I saw some potential support at 6240 which is pushed through. The next level I see is 6200. I was actually hoping price would smash down at some point on big volume to give me an obvious exit but not to be. It may happen after I go to bed.

Weird action. Just grinding lower.

Up 35 for the night then taking into consideration my earlier losses.

 

[pavilion103]

My entry....

I missed the initial short at 6280 because I was thinking long.


I jumped in at 6772 and simply put a stop at the high 20 or so points above. I could tell at that stage that it was heading down and that I'd be reasonably safe taking the trade the way I did.

 

[pavilion103]

Looks like it turned around near that low just above the 6200 level.

I contemplated putting on a long at 6220 to leave overnight but didn't want to risk 13 points to where the stop would have been.

Could have been worth holding that.

 

[dlineinvestor]

I like when wedges break really convincingly, this is a dribble more than a spurt...

ASX200 Trade:
For this very reason I was convinced that my target (5269) was not going to happen.
but 10 points in my bag after all

Negatives of this trade :

I got stopped in after hours when it was a 5 point spread ...
It went against me immediately ...
Price action was meagre, and not bearish at the break of that consolidation area ... ... we did have a leg down but clearly for now markets are making higher lows / highs

 

[fiftyeight]

Had the day today to watch the SPI today and I am attempting to watch the action and analyse as TH did the other day.

One of the problems I am having is where to start. I have no idea if the initial volume is the big boys accumulating or taking profit from previous entries, maybe both haha

 

[Trembling Hand]

Had the day today to watch the SPI today and I am attempting to watch the action and analyse as TH did the other day.

One of the problems I am having is where to start. I have no idea if the initial volume is the big boys accumulating or taking profit from previous entries, maybe both haha

What are you expecting today? What is the main theme you reckon will be played out?