The transition to Futures trading

[CanOz]

Thanks CanOz - do appreciate you describing how to trade with DOM, but I'm yet to "see the matrix" yet! Can see benefits in saving a tick or two with limit orders though if things aren't moving too fast....

Yeah TBH without the Jigsaw DOM it was really difficult to see the stacking and pulling of orders, icebergs and spoofing...Jigsaw is so good its almost like cheating!

 

[pavilion103]

Smashing down!

Hugely bearish for the medium term.

Watching 6830 and 6810 levels.

Will probably go to bed now.
Nothing to do but hold.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Long black bars. Mmmm. Nice pickin' Pav.

 

[pavilion103]

At 6810 support level now.
If I had more, here would be a good place to lift.
But the plan is a position trade with this one.

 

[MichaelD]

Smallish short overnight, but

1. divergence between US price action (down then flat) and futures action (blow-off down move then rising as US prices stayed flat)
2. news universally immediately fearful, and
3. IG clients selling like crazy into a rising futures market

I hold a bullish view again.

(Last time I stuck my neck out like this I had my best ever short trade about 2 hours later. Let's see what happens.)

 

[pavilion103]

Here is some of my analysis for my potential position trade.

Note entry shown at the red area is a position I took lower down, not the original.
Original at 6872.5.
Only holding the one still.

Tonight I will look for an re-entry if there is a good one on open.

The plan was originally to take 3 contracts.
I took 2 with the intention to add 1.
As it turned out I hastily exited 1 contract when I should have just walked away from the screen.
I didn't take the re-entry at 6870 highlighted on the chart.
Glad I at least have 1 running. Not too bad.

30 min chart

and

5 min chart with setup analysis

 

[VSntchr]

Smash down action on the FTSE.

 

[pavilion103]

Smash down action on the FTSE.

Had 2 failed short attempts which cost me total 15 points.
Then got on at the high of the big down bar at 6832.
Stop to BE on this position.

One contract from last night entry 6872
One from tonight 6832

Both running.

 

[MichaelD]

Nothing but small range trading noise for the last 24 hours for me. The range is unusually small so I haven't been able to take anything out of it. Sitting on hands time until the market decides which way it will go next week.

Pav, good to see there was money to be made on the FTSE. It still intrigues me that the SPI and the FTSE don't track each other.

 

[cynic]

I seem to have developed a knack of picking tops and bottoms!

Twice this financial year I've terminated profitable deployments by hitting the proverbial panic button, phoning a friend (my friendly neighbourhood broker) and saying "Get me the FTSE outta here".

On both occasions, unbeknownst to myself, the market was about to reverse from a near term extreme.

In effect I managed to dump long exposure right near the low and canned short exposure right near the high!

Most annoying and certainly not conducive to profitable trading!!!

Congratulations to that skilful/lucky DAX trader. 20K+ Euros is a great result for one and a bit of a day's effort! Consider yourself lucky that I lost my nerve!!

(I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in touch with him lately Pav?)

 

[Newt]

(I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in touch with him lately Pav?)

WE WANT DUCK!
WE WANT DUCK!

BRING BACK THE DUCK!
Where are you Tech!?

 

[cynic]

WE WANT DUCK!
WE WANT DUCK!

BRING BACK THE DUCK!
Where are you Tech!?

+1

Apart from missing his insights, I particularly want to know if he's the culprit behind my recent DAX failures! (I've simply gotta have somebody else to blame!!)

 

[MichaelD]

Quick short on the open. Client sentiment showed lots of buying, so the obvious direction for the market was down. Not a hugely profitable trade as position size was very small, but always nice to start the week with a pyramided winner.

Stopped out by my trailing stop on the highest tick of the relevant bar which may or may not turn into a dead cat bounce.

 

[MichaelD]

Dead Cat Bounce. Back short. Interesting open.

 

[cynic]

Dead Cat Bounce. Back short. Interesting open.

I can certainly see the dead moggy, but where on earth is that bounce?!!

 

[CanOz]

Its a risk off day on the HSI and HHI for sure....

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I seem to have developed a knack of picking tops and bottoms!

Twice this financial year I've terminated profitable deployments by hitting the proverbial panic button, phoning a friend (my friendly neighbourhood broker) and saying "Get me the FTSE outta here".

On both occasions, unbeknownst to myself, the market was about to reverse from a near term extreme.

In effect I managed to dump long exposure right near the low and canned short exposure right near the high!

Most annoying and certainly not conducive to profitable trading!!!

Congratulations to that skilful/lucky DAX trader. 20K+ Euros is a great result for one and a bit of a day's effort! Consider yourself lucky that I lost my nerve!!

(I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in touch with him lately Pav?)

I know that feeling, in 08 when the RBA said no more rate rises.... i told my work mates the AUD is over.. well did i short it no.... off to 60 cents it went. one client has sold 10 lots rode it all the way to 70 cents.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Spot GLD

Getting interesting... watching it atm for a buy set up.

Higher low off double bottom support with a trend break setting in. no buy yet but looking promising.

 

[MichaelD]

I can certainly see the dead moggy, but where on earth is that bounce?!!

The market opened with a straight line down finishing with a long tail.

More often than not that's the last of the crowd who ran for the exit on the open (aka mean reversion time screwing them over).

Sometimes it's just the beginning... (aka all those buying the dip getting screwed over).

IG Clients are still buying this dip furiously instead of giving up and selling. I'm very bearish right now...but we are heading for an area where rounditis may well apply.

I therefore predict that the market will do one of the following things in the next day or two;
- go down
- go up
- go sideways.



FWIW, I've taken a decent second chunk out of this further move down, this time with much larger position sizes. Steak tonight instead of mince meat.

 

[pavilion103]

"The Duck" made a tidy killing on the DAX last Thursday night.
The same time I got on my FTSE short.
Some emails and texts back and forwards last couple of weeks.


FTSE is so interesting right now. Big volume coming in on that upthrust and the following bar, which pushed lower but held (for now).
I am still holding 1 contract. Looking to add a second (or maybe third) tonight for the medium term move.

Looking at the DOW, S&P, FTSE charts, I'm kind of just waiting for a day to smash down 100 points on the FTSE any day, although I could be terribly wrong.

Looks very toppy to me.

If I could be holding multiple contracts I'll be happy.

We will see if this unfolds....

I seem to have developed a knack of picking tops and bottoms!

Twice this financial year I've terminated profitable deployments by hitting the proverbial panic button, phoning a friend (my friendly neighbourhood broker) and saying "Get me the FTSE outta here".

On both occasions, unbeknownst to myself, the market was about to reverse from a near term extreme.

In effect I managed to dump long exposure right near the low and canned short exposure right near the high!

Most annoying and certainly not conducive to profitable trading!!!

Congratulations to that skilful/lucky DAX trader. 20K+ Euros is a great result for one and a bit of a day's effort! Consider yourself lucky that I lost my nerve!!

(I wonder if a certain T/A black duck was trading the DAX last monday and tuesday. Have you been in touch with him lately Pav?)