The transition to Futures trading

[Caveroute]

Now I really have no idea what point you are trying to make. First you said there was only a few "high probability" trades per day. Now you are saying the shorter the time frame the "the higher the probability your target will be met". By that logic you agree with me and not with your first point. That is, a ten point target trade is now MORE "high probability" than your two trades a day aiming for more points.

Ok, let me see if I can put this another way.

Assume that your trade has a scalp component and and a swing component - where lets say you trade 2n contracts, sell n at 4 ticks, move your stop to b/e and let the rest run, say to a stop on the opposite side of a channel.

Now the scalp component has a higher probability of making it than the swing component, for example your b/e stop will routinely be taken out, except on the very best trades.

You can choose to scalp all, swing all, flatten at any point, it's a judgement call.

Clearly you win bigger when the swing component comes home.

That's it, and if this conflicts with anything I said earlier then this takes precedence.

 

[kid hustlr]

Should we be trading the june contract yet?

edit: im thinking march contract today then after that probly june

 

[Trembling Hand]

Ninja trader is saying June roll day is the 21st but i always just have both up and when pre open vol is greater in the new one thats when I switch.

 

[kid hustlr]

Ninja trader is saying June roll day is the 21st but i always just have both up and when pre open vol is greater in the new one thats when I switch.

View attachment 57290

yeah looks like rolls have been going through the last 2 days but id say at this stage there is still more volume in the marchs. rolls week so annoying not sure how you deal with it once a month TH

 

[CanOz]

I'm thinking a rotational day today in Europe. Fed day, plus three directional days prior to today. Thinking we might bracket here for a bit. Could be the end of the short covering?

 

[kid hustlr]

tempting long @ 88 there Pav, not sure if you took it or not?

 

[CanOz]

looks like a grinding rotational day too....hate it when the order flow is like this, really rough and random...

 

[CanOz]

UK news soon....

 

[kid hustlr]

I got on that long took 15 points wonder if I've got out way too early here. Pav you will murder me when we analyse this later in the week for getting out I think. Market looks pretty well bid now imo

 

[kid hustlr]

I got on that long took 15 points wonder if I've got out way too early here. Pav you will murder me when we analyse this later in the week for getting out I think. Market looks pretty well bid now imo

lolol got that wrong.

fortune favours those who plan for a range day and then trade to it even though at the time it looked like a really bad sell.

 

[pavilion103]

Hey haven't been on.
Saw the open yesterday.
Yes would have likely taken that long.
But remember in these conditions a 15 point move to the initial open against the overall tide isn't a bad move.

It's just the trend days that you don't want to be hasty with your exits.

If I was on the last few days I would be looking for 20 point moves not 40 to the upside.
I'd consider being more aggressive to the downside with the medium trend being down.

 

[kid hustlr]

Hey haven't been on.
Saw the open yesterday.
Yes would have likely taken that long.
But remember in these conditions a 15 point move to the initial open against the overall tide isn't a bad move.

It's just the trend days that you don't want to be hasty with your exits.

If I was on the last few days I would be looking for 20 point moves not 40 to the upside.
I'd consider being more aggressive to the downside with the medium trend being down.

yeah there were two possible longs last night. the initial one which you probably would have been stopped at then then the re-test which I was lucky enough to get a piece of. in the end I got it right getting out but not sure if it was luck or good trading.

ill be on tonight for the first hour but super tired so unlikely after that. not sure where we go from here. I know you are a permabear at the moment but I'm a little unsure now. Bit of a longer term trend line nearing and truth be told I'm on the fence which way is next.

 

[pavilion103]

haha. I don't care which way the market goes.
I've traded the long and short sides over recent months.
Last couple of nights had a bit of a long bias (with caution).

I will be cautious with overall market direction, but I can't see how it is long after the last 2 nights action.

Will look at criticial S/R levels, but am more thinking it will break lower soon than not. But who knows.

 

[kid hustlr]

Should we be trading the june contract yet?

edit: im thinking march contract today then after that probly june

looks as tho volume is now pretty much 50/50 ill stick with march today i think as all my pretty pictures are already using march numbers

 

[pavilion103]

On tonight.
Looking to short around
6575
6750

And 6500 is the support.

 

[kid hustlr]

maybe instead of just staring there looking at it i should just take it.

EDIT: I feel sick.

 

[lesm]

maybe instead of just staring there looking at it i should just take it.

EDIT: I feel sick.

What can happen if you take the trade?
1. Make some points
2. Lose some points
3. Break even.

Trading should be a positive action, you take it or you don't take it.

If indecisive maybe better to leave it alone and look later with fresh eyes or do something else

 

[CanOz]

What can happen if you take the trade?
1. Make some points
2. Lose some points
3. Break even.

Trading should be a positive action, you take it or you don't take it.

If indecisive maybe better to leave it alone and look later with fresh eyes or do something else

Hey Lesm, really good to see you around again, what ya been up to for the last 4 years or so?

 

[pavilion103]

2 contracts at 6642 I think.

1st one closed at 6607. Wanted to hold longer but bed time.
35 locked in

Currently broken below the 6600 support
Open profit 75 points.

 

[pavilion103]

Need to maybe trade 3 in future only for ones on the open in high probability areas.

Would love to exit one if it falls another 30 then hold one overnight.

If I had to go to bed if wait 15 mins now and see if it breaks lower if not close.


Trading 2 though.
Next 30 minutes determines if I hold.