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The Top of the market is Looming?

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moXJO said:
You can have opinions, but trade what's in front of you from a neutral mind.
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This x 1000.

In any sort of business the value of contemplating what might happen is so that you can be ready to act.

You know how to (for random examples) invest to profit from an oil price surge or a bear market because you've previously considered that they could occur and on that basis you investigated what you'd do in that situation. You are thus ready to act.

What you actually do though is follow what's actually happening.
 
More stuff on Burry's current position here. A new movie may be in the works.

 
A lot of reading with this thread and started out very bearish but I guess it's not easy to predict when it will eventuate. So, although there is reasons to be cautious, I think it's good to have market exposure.

I am usually looking at themes within specific sectors or certain commodities or small to mid caps that has good growth potential. Themes and trends change, so it's good to be able to be nimble enough to roll with the punches.

or example Gold price has been appreciating lately (I am talking in weeks/months as I don't day trade), so currently getting some exposure to that via purchase of junior Gold mining stocks. Have bought two so far ALK, FFX which are discussed in some detail, therefore providing reasons for the purchase in the Speculative Stock Portfolio

There is no way to predict the market with a high degree of accuracy. Even if the prediction is correct, timing could be awful. So in my experience, it's good to be aware of macro themes developing and prepare accordingly but not to fall in love with either the Bull or the Bear too intimately, they can both hurt us.
 

I am not Bearish so to speak, but I am at the stage where I am beginning to deleverage.

Eg. Over the last decade or so I have been pretty aggressive with put options and margin loans which has worked fantastically, however I am now reducing the size of my put option portfolio as they expire and using my investment portion of my dividends to reduce margin loan debt.

While I am not selling any of my investments, I am deleverging and building reserves so as to increase my capacity to take advantage of any correction that does happen in the future.
 
So took a while for confirmation on the 24hr time frame, Though now i haven confirmation the bearish divergence has been noted from the RSI and the strong break down and close below the 50 day ma,
From my perspective seeing large volume i can only assume that the institution has waited to move large volumes with out tanking the market through distribution .
I have moved now to 85 % to cash,
What i expect to happen,
Over the next 2- 4 weeks a downtrend correction. Though greedy retail investors will come in to buy the dips and show a steady bounce back , over time this massive signal of a bearish divergence crossed with the close of the day below the 50ema - could now signal a change in market structure.
Inflation will continue to move higher and we the current fiscal policy of printing endless money..sooner or later interest rates will need to lift to turn the tide....and we begin the the crash..
I think the tide has turned..enjoy the ride
Pls note : this isn't financial advice pls DYOR
 

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I can only see a top of a market after the bear has done his business... ? and we are well into the decline... ?

But I've been reading this thread eagerly and if we can be at least a bit prepared to a looming market top, that's got to be a good thing.

You guys have provided good rationale and reasoning for your hypothesis...

Unlike constantly preaching doom and gloom like what's his name, who basks in glory when it eventually happens after years or decades later...

So I am watching the ball , no it's not crystal, otherwise I won't be reading this thread
 
Even after the pounding of this week, SPXL & UDOW both up about 17%, TQQQ flat:



TQQQ looks like it's double-topped, the others are clearly still on a bull trend, albeit one that's been pounded over the last few days.
 
For those posters and punters who follow property markets can I suggest taking a big short position on funds that invest in Miami beachfront condos?

I reckon they are going to come down in a rush.

The collapse of the condo a couple of days ago is going to expose every building on that foreshore to complete structural scrutiny. The building insurers are going to want cast iron evidence that the building they are insuring isn't going to fall down next week. Likewise the banks that loan against any new purchasers. .

Objectively I can't see how scores of other building of a similar age and construction aren't in a similar position. It's just that human nature being what it is no one wants to talk down their tower.

Authorities scramble to find cause of Florida condo collapse. But there are some clues

Theories are emerging about how a Florida apartment building collapsed without warning in the dead of the night.
www.abc.net.au
 


For anyone that cares about/uses the technicals.
 
Michael Burry has re-activated his Twitter account and has been tweeting again... and then deleting them shortly after. Here are a couple of the latest deleted tweets.

Needless to say, he's got very firm views about where all this irrational exuberance is going to end.



 
Many investors, depending on the domain invested in, will see quite different pictures of events. The view of a boom continuing for sometime after the decline in countries in America and Europe looks set and may well continue until 2029 in line with what happened in America after the First World War and the roaring twenties - 1929 and maybe 2029 will be similar in the end.
 
The roaring 20's market was preceded by a sideways bear of 10 years.
Does the current juncture look to be the start of a new bull market or the tail end of the one that started in 2009?
As you say everyone has the 2c worth but whatever unfolds the next 10 years will be nothing like the last 10 years and I doubt a continuation of it as the best of this advance is probably already history...
 
Maybe some of these quotes are worth considering when playing the guessing game. Plus making sure we always remember cash is king in the end: As never mind what it is including cryptocurrencies it is always related to cash in the end. Being short of cash or negative must be avoided.

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." — George Soros

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over." — Warren Buffett

"The biggest risk of all is not taking one." — Mellody Hobson

"The four most dangerous words in investing are, it’s different this time." — Sir John Templeton

"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." — Warren Buffett

"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself." — Peter Thiel

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." — Peter Lynch
 
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