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- 6 September 2016
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I would challenge the interpretation by Millennial Tim on this spending.
This is debt.
It is spending by muppets. The middle class and public servants are holding on to their savings.
Another reason cash is down is that all the drug affected people and dealers are in lockdown. Household break-ins are down. I could quite happily have lockdown for a few years.
The economy is rooted and will stay so for 3-5 years. China is gone. The Universities and tourism are wrecked. Even that much maligned cohort of grey nomads are only venturing as far as Aldi.
Let's be honest none of Europe or US china Japan debt can be repaid and standard inflation.. the standard solution is not taking so we can change currency and decreed inflation /change rate new to old dollars, wipe the debt and plenty in between including sizing assets and compensating with new monopoly money
I have only one certitude the 99% will be the screwed 9nes.. probably more like the 99.9pc
Why else destroying purposely our economy?
More at home, the flattening the curve is morphing into eradication..which is madness in concept unless we start a North Korea country wide isolation from the external world...
Makes no sense
It has been, but to swing it back on thread, it has been great to walk the streets again, have been enjoying 'sit down' coffees. I am glad to see that the shops are sticking with taking names and numbers (for tracing) and keeping to the customer limits. Not surprising they would be diligent - many businesses would fear another lockdown.Getting obviously fully out of subject for the thread
Yes I think a lot of the stimulus money has been sitting in a draw, now as the clouds are starting to lift over the virus issue, people are loosening their purse strings.Harvey Norman was packed just now. Electrical goods are selling well. Talking to a salesman and the have been flat out. People fluffing the nest.
Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.
With regards the bikes, the wife and I do a lot of bike riding and since the virus started the amount of people on bikes is unbelievable, family groups as well.Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.
went to a local shopping center today and had to go thru the 5 coffee places there, then come back to our favorite and queue to be able to get a table for 3..Does not mean the place was very busy, quite empty actually ..But with the 10 customers limit here in qld, it is hard to actually spend your money.With regards the bikes, the wife and I do a lot of bike riding and since the virus started the amount of people on bikes is unbelievable, family groups as well.
Also our local BigW store is empty of bikes, I asked the shop assistant, he said they all sold in the first couple of weeks.
So obviously bike supplies from China have been affected, or the store would be re stocked by now.
It will be interesting to see if the trend continues after everything re starts, or if we see a lot of bikes on the verge, next junk pick up time.
Drove from Perth to Mandurah at 16.45, the traffic is back to pre covid levels, bumper to bumper for the first 20klm.
Stop start, for the first 10klm.
Three weeks ago, hardly any traffic at the same time same day, last week a lot heavier, today back to normal.Maybe a few trying to make an early getaway before the long weekend? I imagine the roads South will not be much fun tomorrow.
Initially I came across your posts as a systems trader only. But now I am awedat your level of thinking and knowledge in the wider scheme of things and they are very much aligned with my own views.
I was thinking about all this well before the virus, how unsustainable the sovereign debt growth of all the QE nations are and how and when it would unravel or resolve itself.
My thinking is, we are the 99%, unless there is a Central Bank financial elite in this forum or one of their investment bank buddies who gets all the QE benefits like JP Morgan etc. But I am also one of the least pessimistic. May sound, but if I can put it humbly: I am the sort of guy who can be buried in a sewer to drown but may still come out eating through all that . So despite what/who we might be up against, we will still fight for the best outcome.
I have thought about the debt issue and what a reset may look like quite a lot over the last few years actually. I was hopeful for a global debt forgiveness type of reset where the nations unable to pay back or even make interest payments on the debt may be forgiven or written off. But with the geopolitical tensions and trade wars with the super powers of the world I think such a dreamy fairytale is unlikely. So it may come down to what you described, which may include seizing of assets to repay the public debt. At what level I don't know:
Whatever happens, we will have little control other than gambling on asset allocation hoping one asset may be favoured over another or protesting on the streets when it all happens etc. So my most optimistic answer is, we will carry on as usual and I'll join all you ASF buggers on the street when the protesting begins where our assets starts getting seized/confiscated one day...
- At public company level, by slicing a portion of all public companies i.e. share market
- At property level, by introducing new land and property taxes or hiking existing ones
- At income level with even higher taxes
- At Cash level by giving citizens a fraction of the purchasing power with a replacement currency or freeze the banks and take a % off all deposits as happened in some of the European nations that defaulted on their sovereign debt
- At individual level of seizing personal assets like confiscating of all Gold privately held by the Government as has happened in the USA in the past
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Thanks for reading the post lindsayf, but I think it's not meant to be pessimistic. I love to be optimistic in most things but sometimes a reality check of the bigger picture keeps you humble and also somewhat nimble.Haha
Thats a very pessimistic post by a not pessimistic person
I don't know if people understand the irony but these people who got the benefits already had some buffer to get through the hard time:
It was not the case with most part-timers, casuals and other people who didn't make up the "Un-employment" numbers. They had the least benefits if their gig or part-time/casual income dried up and I feel they were left in the dark with these schemes as they received nothing !
A good perspective. Yes it could be looked at that way in flexing their political muscle and the eligibility being back & white as to whether someone was eligible or left to fend on their own suggest they are looking after their voters only.A cynic would say that those who are more likely to vote for the Coalition received a handout whilst those who probably vote Labor didn't.
I think jobkeeper was done to avoid company collapses and allow fora restart.A good perspective. Yes it could be looked at that way in flexing their political muscle and the eligibility being back & white as to whether someone was eligible or left to fend on their own suggest they are looking after their voters only.
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