The state of the economy at the street level

[InsvestoBoy]

I would challenge the interpretation by Millennial Tim on this spending.

He's just quoting an AFR article.

This is debt.

It is spending by muppets. The middle class and public servants are holding on to their savings.

The point of the thread is to talk about the state of the economy at street level.

If credit card spending is up year over year, that is a huge amount of spending.

Either you are right and it's muppets and the middle class is not participating: in which case that means the money spent on net is even more massive, to drive a YoY increase.

Or you are wrong, because I can see plenty of middle class people at the shopping centers in Sydney who are spending and lining up to spend, which I posted example observation of recently.

Another reason cash is down is that all the drug affected people and dealers are in lockdown. Household break-ins are down. I could quite happily have lockdown for a few years.

I know this is wrong because again, at the street level, I still see syringes on the street and the usual area junkies doing their thing.

The economy is rooted and will stay so for 3-5 years. China is gone. The Universities and tourism are wrecked. Even that much maligned cohort of grey nomads are only venturing as far as Aldi.

Bring us some observations from the street Garpal. What I see today when I am outside doesn't look like a rooted economy, regardless of how I feel about what "should" happen.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Let's be honest none of Europe or US china Japan debt can be repaid and standard inflation.. the standard solution is not taking so we can change currency and decreed inflation /change rate new to old dollars, wipe the debt and plenty in between including sizing assets and compensating with new monopoly money
I have only one certitude the 99% will be the screwed 9nes.. probably more like the 99.9pc
Why else destroying purposely our economy?

This is just recycling the same economic talking point that has been so consistently wrong for so long. Japan has been growing their debt that can't be repaid more and more without issue. New bonds are sold regularly with heavy demand.

Our own Government is auctioning billions of AUD in bonds on a weekly basis without problems.

Forget what you think should happen and look at what is happening.

More at home, the flattening the curve is morphing into eradication..which is madness in concept unless we start a North Korea country wide isolation from the external world...
Makes no sense

I agree with flattening the curve vs eradication, but that said, I think we are learning more and more about the virus and it's not so simply as we first thought. Some people have caught it, felt fine and then suddenly had a stroke. We don't know enough about asymptomatic carriers still. Lack of caution could result in catastrophe, so until we learn more better to be safe than sorry.

 

[qldfrog]

Answer deleted.no point

 

[jbocker]

Getting obviously fully out of subject for the thread

It has been, but to swing it back on thread, it has been great to walk the streets again, have been enjoying 'sit down' coffees. I am glad to see that the shops are sticking with taking names and numbers (for tracing) and keeping to the customer limits. Not surprising they would be diligent - many businesses would fear another lockdown.
All this names and number taking makes wonder when I will be getting sms on the phone offering Discounts on Doughnuts from about 30 different coffee shops. Yummmm.

 

[qldfrog]

Indeed first sit down coffee and cake last week was a delight

 

[moXJO]

People are spending. Only problem is the supply routes are not keeping stores stocked. Price hikes in stores I bet.
I actually lashed out on some updated crap. Nothing like sitting round the house noticing things are a decade or more old and can't keep up.
Also picked up more hobbies so more money to waste. I think since November last year to now is the most consumer spending I have done in a while.

 

[moXJO]

Harvey Norman was packed just now. Electrical goods are selling well. Talking to a salesman and the have been flat out. People fluffing the nest.
Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.

 

[sptrawler]

Harvey Norman was packed just now. Electrical goods are selling well. Talking to a salesman and the have been flat out. People fluffing the nest.
Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.

Yes I think a lot of the stimulus money has been sitting in a draw, now as the clouds are starting to lift over the virus issue, people are loosening their purse strings.
If this proves to be the case, it has been an amazing navigation of the economic dip, I've never seen anything like it in my life, unbelievable if it works.

 

[sptrawler]

Earlier this morning on a walk by the beach noticed bikes were everywhere. Mainly aged 40 plus. Haven't seen that many in decades.

With regards the bikes, the wife and I do a lot of bike riding and since the virus started the amount of people on bikes is unbelievable, family groups as well.
Also our local BigW store is empty of bikes, I asked the shop assistant, he said they all sold in the first couple of weeks.
So obviously bike supplies from China have been affected, or the store would be re stocked by now.
It will be interesting to see if the trend continues after everything re starts, or if we see a lot of bikes on the verge, next junk pick up time.

 

[qldfrog]

With regards the bikes, the wife and I do a lot of bike riding and since the virus started the amount of people on bikes is unbelievable, family groups as well.
Also our local BigW store is empty of bikes, I asked the shop assistant, he said they all sold in the first couple of weeks.
So obviously bike supplies from China have been affected, or the store would be re stocked by now.
It will be interesting to see if the trend continues after everything re starts, or if we see a lot of bikes on the verge, next junk pick up time.

went to a local shopping center today and had to go thru the 5 coffee places there, then come back to our favorite and queue to be able to get a table for 3..Does not mean the place was very busy, quite empty actually ..But with the 10 customers limit here in qld, it is hard to actually spend your money.

 

[Humid]

Northern suburbs of Perth you would struggle to see any change
Bunnings possibly more busy during the week than normal
Everything else is business as usual
Traffic is same same

 

[wayneL]

Still a mixed bag in my circle. Some doing as good or better than normal.

Some totally FUBAR.

I'm still operating as normal ATM... But some supplies getting harder to get hold of.

 

[sptrawler]

Drove from Perth to Mandurah at 16.45, the traffic is back to pre covid levels, bumper to bumper for the first 20klm.
Stop start, for the first 10klm.

 

[wabullfrog]

Drove from Perth to Mandurah at 16.45, the traffic is back to pre covid levels, bumper to bumper for the first 20klm.
Stop start, for the first 10klm.

Maybe a few trying to make an early getaway before the long weekend? I imagine the roads South will not be much fun tomorrow.

 

[sptrawler]

Maybe a few trying to make an early getaway before the long weekend? I imagine the roads South will not be much fun tomorrow.

Three weeks ago, hardly any traffic at the same time same day, last week a lot heavier, today back to normal.
But as you say the long weekend may have had an effect, but not many cars with bikes and gear on them, tommorrow will be bedlam IMO.

 

[lindsayf]

Initially I came across your posts as a systems trader only. But now I am awed at your level of thinking and knowledge in the wider scheme of things and they are very much aligned with my own views.

I was thinking about all this well before the virus, how unsustainable the sovereign debt growth of all the QE nations are and how and when it would unravel or resolve itself.

My thinking is, we are the 99%, unless there is a Central Bank financial elite in this forum or one of their investment bank buddies who gets all the QE benefits like JP Morgan etc. But I am also one of the least pessimistic. May sound , but if I can put it humbly: I am the sort of guy who can be buried in a sewer to drown but may still come out eating through all that . So despite what/who we might be up against, we will still fight for the best outcome.

I have thought about the debt issue and what a reset may look like quite a lot over the last few years actually. I was hopeful for a global debt forgiveness type of reset where the nations unable to pay back or even make interest payments on the debt may be forgiven or written off. But with the geopolitical tensions and trade wars with the super powers of the world I think such a dreamy fairytale is unlikely. So it may come down to what you described, which may include seizing of assets to repay the public debt. At what level I don't know:

• At public company level, by slicing a portion of all public companies i.e. share market
• At property level, by introducing new land and property taxes or hiking existing ones
• At income level with even higher taxes
• At Cash level by giving citizens a fraction of the purchasing power with a replacement currency or freeze the banks and take a % off all deposits as happened in some of the European nations that defaulted on their sovereign debt
• At individual level of seizing personal assets like confiscating of all Gold privately held by the Government as has happened in the USA in the past

Whatever happens, we will have little control other than gambling on asset allocation hoping one asset may be favoured over another or protesting on the streets when it all happens etc. So my most optimistic answer is, we will carry on as usual and I'll join all you ASF buggers on the street when the protesting begins where our assets starts getting seized/confiscated one day...
View attachment 103855

Haha
Thats a very pessimistic post by a not pessimistic person

 

[aus_trader]

Haha
Thats a very pessimistic post by a not pessimistic person

Thanks for reading the post lindsayf, but I think it's not meant to be pessimistic. I love to be optimistic in most things but sometimes a reality check of the bigger picture keeps you humble and also somewhat nimble.

I hope we will be in better shape than some of the other developed nations and I hope our policy makers do things that are in the interest of the nation's prosperity in the long term. So I hope some of the things I mentioned does not ever come to fruition so that we can carry on as normal.

I think outside the normal boundaries and the system set for us by the elites of society. These include Governments, Councils and other law making organisations and Central and Reserve bankers etc. These things I talked about are really big picture stuff and I am sorry if I sounded pessimistic. I will not post such views going forward. What I think doesn't matter anyway as I am not in a position high enough to action my views to steer Australia to ensure we stay 'the lucky' country, so I am really really hopeful others with power and Governance will do that for all of us.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The End On Macro Economic Pessimistic Views ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Change of subject:
---------------------

Getting back on subject, since we are talking economy at street level, what do people think about the Job Keeper, Job Seeker and PM's new Job Maker schemes ?

I don't want to open a can of worms, but I think our community has been unfairly treated. So I will go ahead...

With the Job Seeker/Keeper schemes, there was a very vulnerable group of people who missed out on any assistance during this period of shutdowns, job losses and reduced incomes. They are the part-time, casual and workers in alternate careers such as arts/music etc.

You see, some of these part-timers and casuals and even some artists etc barely get by even in a normal economy that was operating in full capacity in 2019. Some work two or more part-time or casual jobs or do some odd jobs in the gig economy where the incomes already fluctuate so much that they tend to worry if they have enough work just to get by month-on-month. So when the lockdowns hit and when these group of workers in our communities hot hit hard, their applications for any assistance was rejected.

Instead it was given to employers to continue to fund the full time employees who didn't have a job with Job Keeper or to Unemployed with Job Seeker. I don't know if people understand the irony but these people who got the benefits already had some buffer to get through the hard time:

If you were an eligible Job Keeper, you already had payouts from your employer for retrenchment payouts, any accumulated sick leave pay and accumulated annual leave pay. And for Job Seekers, they always have the safety net of the Dole which was ramped up and re-named to Job Seeker if you lost your full time job as a result of Covid-19 lockdown.

It was not the case with most part-timers, casuals and other people who didn't make up the "Un-employment" numbers. They had the least benefits if their gig or part-time/casual income dried up and I feel they were left in the dark with these schemes as they received nothing !

I think Kevin Rudd's stimulus package that supported all Australians without discriminating whether you formed part of the Employment number statistics or not during the GFC was much better designed to help the most vulnerable in our community. What do others and lindsayf think ?

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't know if people understand the irony but these people who got the benefits already had some buffer to get through the hard time:

It was not the case with most part-timers, casuals and other people who didn't make up the "Un-employment" numbers. They had the least benefits if their gig or part-time/casual income dried up and I feel they were left in the dark with these schemes as they received nothing !

A cynic would say that those who are more likely to vote for the Coalition received a handout whilst those who probably vote Labor didn't.

I gave Labor some heavy criticism for that approach during the last election campaign and I'll equally criticise the Coalition for doing it now.

I'll also add that if the rate of payment on the dole is deemed unacceptable amidst a lockdown and needs to be doubled then it's rather hard to argue that it's enough during normal times when the unemployed have the additional costs of trying to actually find a job.

 

[aus_trader]

A cynic would say that those who are more likely to vote for the Coalition received a handout whilst those who probably vote Labor didn't.

A good perspective. Yes it could be looked at that way in flexing their political muscle and the eligibility being back & white as to whether someone was eligible or left to fend on their own suggest they are looking after their voters only.

 

[qldfrog]

A good perspective. Yes it could be looked at that way in flexing their political muscle and the eligibility being back & white as to whether someone was eligible or left to fend on their own suggest they are looking after their voters only.

I think jobkeeper was done to avoid company collapses and allow fora restart.
It is not people welfare, it is company welfare.
Without it, for companies..and i mean the bread and butter SMEs running this country, not the big corporations, ,: They would have had to sack employeesay all the due holiday leaves, extra redundancy payment.
If not collapsed by the extra cost, at restart,rehire retrain new people having lost their best employees and skills.it would have been an economic carnage.
So the government tried the save the economy first, which is not a leftist idea, but actually makes sense.
Was it hard for the casual and students etc left behind, oh yeah, but if the economy is left to restart, they have a chance to get a job again whereas otherwise, no one would be left to employ them
No perfect solution
Jobseeker was supposed to care for them.did it fail? I know about job keeper,not enough about job seeker