The state of the economy at the street level
- Thread starter Tyler Durden
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Just to compare statistically... for what its worth (coronavirus cases)
Taiwan has an median age similar to ours A 38years T 45Years and populations similar A 25.5M T23.8M and is also an island.
3rd last column header should read total deaths / million.
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I suspect that the second storm will be when economic reality hits the masses.
It'll be an outright miracle if we don't end up in a recession that takes quite some time to properly recover from.
FRED's NOWCAST indicator is a leading indicator and is forecasting a GDP contraction of -13.74% for the USA.
St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index (ENI) uses economic content from key monthly economic data releases to forecast the growth of real GDP during that quarter. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter.
It doesn't make any claims to the length of time, but earnings season is going to be messy.
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Do we have a supply of masks to be wearing?
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Yes count how many small business shut close by when they open a new wharehouse.
Remember the mask does not have to be medical standard, it is to stop asymptomatic people infecting others before they know they are ill.
On the cruise ship in the USA there were over 700 people with CV19, about 300 had no symptoms at all, they did not even feel sick.
Asia has been there before, mask up and carry on is their way of coping, the figures support it as a viable option
Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
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"The output gap is the lost economic output a country will experience during a period in which the economy is effectively shut down. The longer the output gap, the deeper the economic damage. The duration of the output gap will largely depend on the effectiveness of the health response taken by governments." -Magellan
- The French central bank estimated that every two weeks of lockdown could reduce annual economic activity in France by 1.5%.
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We managed to shut down the borders fairly early.
Being an island is an advantage.
How many people spilled across the border from Europe into the UK before they knew what was happening ?
This is the best thing that happened for Brexit, sad as the deaths are.
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And this is conservative, at least that
One thing not to forget is that the impact on companies is much higher
Your yearly profit is income - cost
If you close a month and your income is decreased by 1/12. Your costs are not and things like rates water power all the various fees insurance licensings and permits still have their yearly costs unchanged, the body corporate fees stsy the same, your car still need to be service after 6 months or ehatever even if km ate done,bthe oil changed the fire extinguisher will have to be controlled
The higher the regulatory pressure, the higher the cost so here again we are starting defeated vs Asia
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Apologies for the fat fingers
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Alright everyone, I just got back from Woolies, toilet paper is back on the shelves and nearly everyone was walking out with some under their arm.
Crisis averted.
XJO to 9000.
Crisis averted.
XJO to 9000.
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Check out this analysis on the current economic situation in Australia and consider how our economy is being affected by COVID 19. The impact on retail has yet to officially documented - but our eyes tell us tourism and tertiary education are cactus.
China’s GDP collapse caps off a week of bad Australian economic news
By
Robin Bromby
-
April 18, 2020
China’s economy contracted 6.8% in the March quarter.
FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailPrint
China has been reporting quarterly GDP figures for 28 years and there has never been a contraction — until the March quarter just ended and the contraction came in at 6.8% on Friday.
That sent a shock wave around the world. It ended a surge of Chinese economic growth that dates back to 1976.
It will be an especially hard jolt to Australia with its heavy reliance on China as an export market.
Even before the Chinese data was released on Friday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison earlier in the day was warning Australians that the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus will hit this economy “like a truck”.
https://smallcaps.com.au/china-gdp-collapse-bad-australian-economic-news/
China’s GDP collapse caps off a week of bad Australian economic news
By
Robin Bromby
-
April 18, 2020
China’s economy contracted 6.8% in the March quarter.
FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailPrint
China has been reporting quarterly GDP figures for 28 years and there has never been a contraction — until the March quarter just ended and the contraction came in at 6.8% on Friday.
That sent a shock wave around the world. It ended a surge of Chinese economic growth that dates back to 1976.
It will be an especially hard jolt to Australia with its heavy reliance on China as an export market.
Even before the Chinese data was released on Friday, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison earlier in the day was warning Australians that the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus will hit this economy “like a truck”.
https://smallcaps.com.au/china-gdp-collapse-bad-australian-economic-news/
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Noticed while driving around a lot of commercial property up for rent, not sure if its just my imagination but I think commercial property is taking a massive dump at the moment... its going to get messy.
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was already the case in Brisbane, been trying to sell /rent an industrial shed for 2 years, got a tenant for limited time only, but activity was dead for new tenants or upgrading existing ones already, at best business were stable but not growing and no creation here in North Brisbane
It started before all this was going on. This is just feeding into it.
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Is it just me but is the quality of vegetables seem to be improving. Best bunch of capsicums I had seen for a while! But looking across all the other produce it was all looked good.
Maybe vege exports have waned and us locals are get the quality?
Maybe I was just lucky today.
Me.. noticing vegetables.. I MUST have been hungry!!
Maybe I was just lucky today.
Me.. noticing vegetables.. I MUST have been hungry!!
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Good rain after long drought.
Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
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The 'deregulation' is interesting ... local cafe has a fridge where the customers once sat, selling milk, avocados, all the ingredients that went in the BLTs. Bookshops (that still exist) are doing a roaring business. Buses here are loading through the middle doors.
Causing some friction for people buying takeaway, then going to a park to eat and getting moved on.
Heard a good one from friends in Melbourne; a walking degustation, strolling through the restaurant district and the QV market, grazing here and there. There's an App for that.
Causing some friction for people buying takeaway, then going to a park to eat and getting moved on.
Heard a good one from friends in Melbourne; a walking degustation, strolling through the restaurant district and the QV market, grazing here and there. There's an App for that.
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