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The state of the economy at the street level

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wayneL said:
Let's apply the same rules to financial institutions and other "too-big-to-fail" companies.

Seriously I would be in that.
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I would be happy with that, but what you are talking about there is not really valid for two reasons.

1, the GFC type situation is more akin to freak natural disaster, not an all season allowance that can be applied for any time.

2, The "Bail Outs' weren't a hand out, they were loans and asset sales and the central bank and the government actually made money from it, while share holders/owners in most situations lost a lot of their investment, so paid the price for their sins and more.
 
Value Collector said:
1, the GFC type situation is more akin to freak natural disaster
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Uhhh, more like self harm. GFC was completely predictable (not exactly when but that it would eventually happen) and all of us were sitting around in in our pyjamas and scratching our balls, knowing it was going to happen in some way.

Let the ASF record show....
 
Floods are predictable, as are bush fires and droughts, what’s your point?

Still it changes nothing, as I said the “bailouts” were not hand outs, the Fed and the US government profited from the loans and asset sales that were labelled bail outs, and the share holders took a hit.

Also, the whole point of the Fed is to bail out the banking system, and it uses the banks own deposits to do it.
 
A true story about if the GFC was predictable

At that time a daughter was employed at a Listed Fund owned by a big $ bank, at a board meeting it was stated that no one could have predicted the GFC.

She quietly said to her workmate ( I don't know about that, my father took 6 figures out of stocks, he told me it was coming and the forums were all saying When not if)

She copped a few filthy looks from her superiors and they then voted to suspend fund withdrawals for a few more months.

Two friends both said we were all wrong, I said I am a chicken I am 95% out, good luck

One lost $700k the other $600k, both in their early sixties, a very bad time to take a hit

There is another Crunch coming that will be Far worse than that or we could simply sell the world to China in exchange for Mandarin lessons and some chopsticks
 
Craton said:
I hear what you're saying and understand but without the primary producers there'd be no jobs for a lot us and most would starve.
BTW according to the ATO fishermen are Primary Producers too.

I do see your point though.
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Ps none of the producers i know got that allowance nor do I
 
qldfrog said:
Ps none of the producers i know got that allowance nor do I
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Would they tell you? I am pretty sure most people would not share such personal info unless you are very close, so you might know people that claim it.

Ps None of the city folk I know are drug addicts, nor am I.
 
wayneL said:
GFC was completely predictable (not exactly when but that it would eventually happen)
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I distinctly recall reading a fairly extensive article in 2002 on the subject. It went into a lot of detail and specifics about the US mortgage lenders, the automotive manufacturers, investment banks and so on.

Reading that article opened my eyes big time at the time, even more so when it turned out to be alarmingly accurate some years later.

A couple of years later, about 2004, at least two websites emerged compiling information specifically on a real estate crash they'd foreseen, focusing on the US and UK. One was still around in 2007 and at that point compiling a list of failed mortgage lenders - a list that was rapidly growing by the end of that year indicating the proverbial was hitting the fan.

The GFC wasn't simply predictable, it was actually predicted and documented in real time well before it hit the headlines.
 

This bloke is a good example of what happens when seniority decides who gets to be Boss.

Absolutely no imagination, forethought or planning, he seems to struggle with the concept that Australia is an independent economy with its own special quirks

Our RBA needs to actually make decisions relevant to us not wait for others to pat us on the head or hold our hand

I have booed from the side lines ever since he got there but at least he is consistent, too late going down and too late going up.
 
rcw1 said:
rcw1 would live in the bush any day of the week over the city. Communication by smoke signals, I say...

Kind regards
rcw1
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flashing mirrors work on sunny days ( as well )

some might still have CB radios ( from their trucks and tractors )

but could you survive without your daily (over-) dose of ads
 
moXJO said:
It feels like money is drying up a bit. Then I go somewhere and it sometimes looks like it's booming
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Perhaps it’s just the ads I get served up online but it seems that this “black friday” sale thing is being really pushed hard this year by some retailers.

Those selling durable goods mostly. Furniture, appliances and so on. The kind of thing consumers generally don’t actually need to buy at any particular time and which are substantial purchase decisions.

I’ve also heard reports of builders starting to drop prices.

So I think it’s really quite mixed. Some sectors are booming, others seem to be struggling.
 
Black Friday is an American Concept that has been growing steadily here for the last 10 years or so. This year was definitely the biggest year so far.

It’s the Friday after thanks giving, and often thought of as the beginning of the Christmas shopping season.

We don’t celebrate thanks giving here, but some how Black Friday has taken off, at first is was an online thing here that over flowed from Amazon and other online American retailers, but now it’s gone main stream.
 
there would be some retailers overstocked by delayed goods trapped by the virus/lock-down bottleneck , so am guessing some would try to piggy-back Black Friday ( hype ) to reduce inventory , just in case this Xmas bites ( in a nasty way )
 
Xmas sales .... anecdote . Neighbour works for Hasbro, major toy wholesaler/ importer, and says sales are less than sluggish. Buyers either going down price or reducing the number, from say 3 to only one $50 pressie.

Of course this is all stock that was decided on months or even a year ago; the big challenge they're facing is the next season's orders . Things looking very glum
 
Good evening Dona Ferentes
Here's hoping consumer demand picks up that one week, 10-day block prior to Christmas Day.

Did venture out today, a rcw1 adventure... hobbled around the Cluden Racetrack in Townsville. Did notice no reduction in patrons from previously sorties.... Same bookies and the beer was nice and cold... too, some things never change ha ha ha ha

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous 2023.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
wayneL said:
Was at the local shopping centre yesterday (Saturday) with my Mrs.

Easy parking, normal activity etc, but then remembered about Xmas. With that in mind, it seemed dead quiet.
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i am guessing the folks in your area are ( at least partially ) financially savvy

here , it is like the lunch room at the UN , ethic folk from all over the globe

so harder to judge the festive seasons , that dominant retail , but the local shops NOT bursting with activity when i visit in the middle of the working days, maybe they are hoping for last minute mark-downs ( on the perishable stuff )
 
I’m seeing mixed signals.

Major events seem to be drawing huge crowds no matter what the event is. Even decidely “has been” acts seem to have no trouble drawing a crowd.

On the other hand I’ve noticed a definite quietness outside on weekends. Quietness as in sound - the sum total of road traffic, mowers, building works and so on has definitely diminished. It’s quieter.

Also I’ve noticed a change in advertising. Definitely more for things like tyres, car maintenance, household maintenance, cleaning services and so on. So I assume demand is dropping off somewhat.
 
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