Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Irrational exhuberance about right.

Been caught before by the US results season, a few US companies report well and the US market lifts, only to fall flat afterwards. Current examples IBM, Apple, Citi, BofA.
 
nulla nulla said:
Talk about irrational exuberance. The US sovereign debt is so far underwater (like their collatorised debt obligations and ninja loan based "prime" mortgages) and yet the djia is climbing back toward 12,000.
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Might be Mr Market's last desperate gasp for life-giving air before the heavy debt sinks him to the deeps?

:cool:
 
oh well the way things are going Monday should be easy enough.

Scalp trade the ASX upwards. Not gonna hold a position due to the bouncability (is that a word) of the markets.

Got a small selling position on the SP500 for the predictable downturn when something negative happens...if the level goes past 1250 i'll sell some more of it but i doubt that'll happen, not Christmas yet!
 
Aussiejeff said:
Might be Mr Market's last desperate gasp for life-giving air before the heavy debt sinks him to the deeps?

:cool:
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Haha.. This will be about his fifth 'last gasp'? I'm sure they'll fill his floaties with a fresh bailout that will somehow be different from previous b/o's:rolleyes:

Unfortunately floaties are no good in a tsunami
 
interesting how the us index has only fallen 3% yet the asx has fallen far further and the banks in aussie who are far better off due to their lending criteria are about to to announce impressive profits.

Positive noises this weekend from Europe are going to result ina very decent one day bounce IMO. Futures is at 4,202...I doubt market will open that high - there's a quick buck there Monday AM for the bulls.
 
willstor said:
interesting how the us index has only fallen 3% yet the asx has fallen far further and the banks in aussie who are far better off due to their lending criteria are about to to announce impressive profits.
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How are our banks better off? They are immensely exposed to the aussie housing bubble which is yet to pop.

How are they going to achieve profit growth when there have been virtually no new home loans over the last several months? Financing is totally flat.

The market isn't stupid.



Also, what good news from Europe? Looks more of the same plan for a plan nonsense. When are they actually going to announce any real plan? They could be planning for a massive Greek default which will have unforeseen global repercussions for all we know.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...and-backbiting-in-the-corridors-of-power.html

What part of that is good?
 
Starcraftmazter said:
How are our banks better off? They are immensely exposed to the aussie housing bubble which is yet to pop.

How are they going to achieve profit growth when there have been virtually no new home loans over the last several months? Financing is totally flat.

The market isn't stupid.



Also, what good news from Europe? Looks more of the same plan for a plan nonsense. When are they actually going to announce any real plan? They could be planning for a massive Greek default which will have unforeseen global repercussions for all we know.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...and-backbiting-in-the-corridors-of-power.html

What part of that is good?
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The sentiment is good - whether Europe sort themselves out this week or the banks are profitable next year or not doesn't matter for today's trading.
 
willstor said:
interesting how the us index has only fallen 3% yet the asx has fallen far further and the banks in aussie who are far better off due to their lending criteria are about to to announce impressive profits.
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The US has at least a potential QE3 rumour to prop things up a bit.

Starcraftmazter said:
How are our banks better off? They are immensely exposed to the aussie housing bubble which is yet to pop.

How are they going to achieve profit growth when there have been virtually no new home loans over the last several months? Financing is totally flat.

The market isn't stupid.
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I guess "yet to pop" is better than "already fallen through the floor" as in the US. And at yields of 6.5-7% and PE in single digits, the banks are hardly priced for growth...
 
All sing now.... (I suggest in the style of Herman's Hermit's "No Milk Today")

"No tank today,
The Bear has gone away,
The banks are having fun,
Beneath that Aussie sun..."

:)
 
Aussiejeff said:
All sing now.... (I suggest in the style of Herman's Hermit's "No Milk Today")

"No tank today,
The Bear has gone away,
The banks are having fun,
Beneath that Aussie sun..."

:)
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How could they know just what this summit means
The end of Greek's hopes, the end of Europe's dreams
How could they know the palace there had been
Behind the door where Goldmans reigned as queen
 
Unbelievable. 4193-4232 in half an hour on the basis that we 'think' Europe will have a solution.

Keep an eye on the house of commons in the uk and David Cameron's continuing spat with the French - could we see a small slide tomorrow? Futures currently at 4,254 down from 260 - all the good stuff now priced in - you know what that means :)
 
willstor said:
Unbelievable. 4193-4232 in half an hour on the basis that we 'think' Europe will have a solution.

Keep an eye on the house of commons in the uk and David Cameron's continuing spat with the French - could we see a small slide tomorrow? Futures currently at 4,254 down from 260 - all the good stuff now priced in - you know what that means :)
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i'm still at a HUGE loss as to what could be regarded as a positive solution? can someone please enlighten me on what could possibly happen that would fix this, or what could possibly happen for you to think we're good to go? it's clear bail-outs don't work long term, in fact they're barely working short-term, and yet this is all we're going to see.
 
young-gun said:
i'm still at a HUGE loss as to what could be regarded as a positive solution? can someone please enlighten me on what could possibly happen that would fix this, or what could possibly happen for you to think we're good to go? it's clear bail-outs don't work long term, in fact they're barely working short-term, and yet this is all we're going to see.
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The truth is there have to be bailouts.

The alternative--- default will lead to Credit Default swaps being called upon.
So as banks cannot pay their liabilities other banks with totally un related swaps will fail as banks who hold some of their swaps are called up as default comes through no fault of theirs.
So the dominoes will falL so fast that no amount propping will be available.
Simply money will run out and banks---- lots of them will collapse.

Try to imagine what would happen if banks collapsed and Govts couldn't help!

Businesses lose all their funds and operating capability
Now what would that mean to governments?
 
tech/a said:
The truth is there have to be bailouts.

The alternative--- default will lead to Credit Default swaps being called upon.
So as banks cannot pay their liabilities other banks with totally un related swaps will fail as banks who hold some of their swaps are called up as default comes through no fault of theirs.
So the dominoes will falL so fast that no amount propping will be available.
Simply money will run out and banks---- lots of them will collapse.

Try to imagine what would happen if banks collapsed and Govts couldn't help!

Businesses lose all their funds and operating capability
Now what would that mean to governments?
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i understand the reason for bailouts. but why can't they see that they aren't going to fix anything? i know governments need to appear to be doing something but surely they know their efforts are futile? if they truly had their nations best interests at heart they would stop delaying the inevitable and let deflation take hold. greece IS going to default, they have now created a far worse situation than if they had just taken their medicine in the first place.

what this will mean for governments is a front row seat to the worst depression in history, that will make the 1930's look like a boom.

This is a necessary step in the cycle. It's gotten to a point where the money in your wallet is becoming increasingly worthless day by day. The world economy MUST collapse. This debt creation simply has to cease and correct itself(which it is trying so very hard to do), it's unsustainable and so very very toxic.
 
young-gun said:
This is a necessary step in the cycle. It's gotten to a point where the money in your wallet is becoming increasingly worthless day by day. The world economy MUST collapse. This debt creation simply has to cease and correct itself(which it is trying so very hard to do), it's unsustainable and so very very toxic.
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You may be quite correct but it is difficult if not impossible to put a timeframe on the cycle. These are big cycles (30-50yrs) and you can't guess the end with any sort of accuracy. You might be right in the end but you can easily be off by a few years.

Never under-estimate the power of things to muddle through for longer than you imagine.
 
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