The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread
- Thread starter RexBudman
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I see resistance at 4300-4350.
I'm no expert (and always defer to those in the know)but my system is still bearish(long term) at the moment.
Yes I've already closed half my positions out last week, and all my positions out on Monday. (posted in the October thread).
In the short term at least there is a very high probability of a pullback.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/?p=2508
Lots of bloggers have the view we'll see a sharp pullback.
I am thinking of buying in either next Monday or Tuesday, depending on how the charts are looking. (especially if the week closes down sharply) But we will see.
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US debt now closer to $15TRILLION or 100% debt to GDP!
The Fed has deep pockets, but not sure if they can hold up the markets, anymore, in the face of a capitulation ie a 1000 point drop in the Dow? It's warming up - cooler in shorts
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Regardless of what happens with the supposed 'plans' that are soon to be unveiled...slow growth/recession is inevitable in many parts of the world..no matter how great or bad the policies are that come out...2012 is not going to be a great year IMO...
Shorts are coming into season arent they uncy
Shorts are coming into season arent they uncy
US debt now closer to $15TRILLION or 100% debt to GDP!
The Fed has deep pockets, but not sure if they can hold up the markets, anymore, in the face of a capitulation ie a 1000 point drop in the Dow? It's warming up - cooler in shorts
Yes this printing money business will just cause inflation in the US and reduce the value of the US dollar. Mess mess.
Maybe it's what they want to do to short change the Chinese who have invested heavily in US T-Bills.
skc
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Clifford Bennett, from Empire Economics, was just on Switzer saying how the ASX 200 will have a 100% rise to over 8000 over the next two years. Of course he gave no reasons for this sudden rise, but seriously, what world is this guy living in?
Anyone know anything about this guy? I've never heard of him before...
We can get there easily with some hyperinflation.
Apparaently the German stock market went up ~95x in 3 years during 1920s. Too bad inflation was like 1000x so it didn't quite cover the reduction in purchasing power.
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Clifford Bennett, from Empire Economics, was just on Switzer saying how the ASX 200 will have a 100% rise to over 8000 over the next two years. Of course he gave no reasons for this sudden rise, but seriously, what world is this guy living in?
Anyone know anything about this guy? I've never heard of him before...
Peter Switzer is one of Australia’s leading business and financial commentators, launching his own business 20 years ago. The Switzer Group has since grown into three successful companies spanning media and publishing, financial services and business coaching.
Peter is an award-winning broadcaster, twice runner up for the Best Current Affairs Commentator award for radio, behind broadcaster Alan Jones. A former lecturer in economics at the University of NSW, Peter is currently
•weekly columnist for Yahoo!7 Finance
•a regular contributor to The Australian newspaper
•host of Talking Business for the Qantas in-flight service, Radio Q
•finance commentator on Vega FM
•host of his own TV show, Switzer, on SKY News Business Channel
From this website: http://www.switzer.com.au/
You could well be right - depends what noises we see from Europe etc
I think it'll rebound slightly Monday morning if we hear positive noises, otherwise we really are in for a big fall and I shouldn't have cashed in my short position today
Julia
In Memoriam
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Ves might like to clarify, but I took his comment
as referring to Clifford Bennett, not Peter Switzer.
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You are correct Julia, I misread the question, thanks for pointing it out.
Bennett is a currency expert on Switzer's site and well respected according to his bio:
Clifford Bennett has been ranked “the world’s most accurate currency forecaster” by Bloomberg News New York, out of a survey of the top seventy investment banks and think-tanks.
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just a very rough guess..we had a low of 3091 at the eye of the gfc...the only reason it bottomed there was because the governments started their stimilus plans. When europe goes i wouldnt expect it to have a move of that magnitude on it's own. but rest assured once the US go under which wont be shortly after europe you'll see lows of maybe 3000...and then the nail in the coffin will be china's HARD(not soft
) landing which could probably see us to around 2500? it's hard to tell who will go first, china or the US. just depends how rapidly china deteriorates. once again this is just my opinion! i'm sure majority of people will strongly disagree.
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US debt now closer to $15TRILLION or 100% debt to GDP!
The Fed has deep pockets, but not sure if they can hold up the markets, anymore, in the face of a capitulation ie a 1000 point drop in the Dow? It's warming up - cooler in shorts
15 tril is just the government debt. public and finance sector debt combined with unfunded liabilities total in excess of 60 tril. the feds "deep pockets" has just created an even bigger problem than if they had of just let it go. Europe included. We need to ditch Keynes' theory and realise it doesnt work and never will work long term(over decades).
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And let's not forget the $250Tn derivative market - more than double the size of the entire world's GDP, 95% of which is held by the big 5.
Not sure why the S & P 500 and ASX CFD prices have jumped a little this morning....all the news is very poor - even Gadaffi cant be completely good news - we have no idea what infrastructure is left or whether peace will break out straight away.
I am a big bear today for sure
I am a big bear today for sure
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My reading hasn't lead me there yet.. Will look into it on the weekend
Dow was marginally up over night.. I'm backing flat to small losses depending on news throughout the day.
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Unsubstantiated rumour that EFSF will be able to buy bonds of EU countries in secondary markets.
nulla nulla
Positive Expectancy
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The djia bounced 267 overnight on the euphoria that Europe might get it's act together with their bailout and funding plans. Talk about irrational exuberance. The US sovereign debt is so far underwater (like their collatorised debt obligations and ninja loan based "prime" mortgages) and yet the djia is climbing back toward 12,000.
Kind of ironic that our xao is struggling at 4200. The aussie banks should be up on monday (unless of course there is some discord in Europe over the weekend).
Kind of ironic that our xao is struggling at 4200. The aussie banks should be up on monday (unless of course there is some discord in Europe over the weekend).