The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

[tech/a]

Bill
All well and good if your holding remains at least 10%
more than your initial or accumulated purchase price.
TLS was considered cheap ---- once ---- at $ 6.

Purchasing purely for dividends can be very costly
If the core holding continues to tank
A deminishing dividend doest instil confidence in the future

 

[RandR]

Bill
All well and good if your holding remains at least 10%
more than your initial or accumulated purchase price.
TLS was considered cheap ---- once ---- at $ 6.

Purchasing purely for dividends can be very costly
If the core holding continues to tank
A deminishing dividend doest instil confidence in the future

If it has negative 5% earnings growth (comsec forecast) ... where do people expect there 10% dividend to continue coming from ?

 

[alexc2005]

Bill
All well and good if your holding remains at least 10%
more than your initial or accumulated purchase price.
TLS was considered cheap ---- once ---- at $ 6.

Purchasing purely for dividends can be very costly
If the core holding continues to tank
A deminishing dividend doest instil confidence in the future

You seem to be very negative about everything?

Or do you just look at everything from a purely technical point of view?

Are you still of the mindset that the worst is yet to come?

Dividend trading can be very successful if you are good at it. Many people make their money this way..

Obviously you have to be smart about it though because the share will shed its div price when it goes ex div. You just have to be sure it will recover + a bit to get your advantage.

 

[mr. jeff]

QBE has always paid a decent div, sometimes as much as 6.6% per year.


4 year chart. OUCH.
(blue chip all the way, can't go wrong, pays a great reliable dividend yield, always about 6%. 6% x $ 13 = 0.78 cps, 0.78 cps / $34.00 ps = 2.3 cps plus you have 62% capital loss. Be careful which stocks pay dividends for you.

A bit off topic for the ASX is tanking panic thread but maybe I can encourage people to talk shorts on the shorting thread now that the weeks of panic are over. Or are they?

 

[VSntchr]

QBE has always paid a decent div, sometimes as much as 6.6% per year.

View attachment 44030
4 year chart. OUCH.
(blue chip all the way, can't go wrong, pays a great reliable dividend yield, always about 6%. 6% x $ 13 = 0.78 cps, 0.78 cps / $34.00 ps = 2.3 cps plus you have 62% capital loss. Be careful which stocks pay dividends for you.

A bit off topic for the ASX is tanking panic thread but maybe I can encourage people to talk shorts on the shorting thread now that the weeks of panic are over. Or are they?

Good proof of why you shouldnt even buy extraordinary businesses if they are expensive (like QBE was at ~$30)...
IMO its only now starting too come into value. That said I wouldnt be suprised to see it go closer to $10....

 

[tech/a]

You seem to be very negative about everything?

ALEX do you actually read the content of my posts or do you simply form a view with no thought on the matter posted?

Or do you just look at everything from a purely technical point of view?

Clinical yes. like any business and I have a few.

Are you still of the mindset that the worst is yet to come?

Dont know that its a "mindset" but all analysis points that way both technically and fundamentally in the long term and at THIS POINT in time. I'm certainly not long term bullish.

Dividend trading can be very successful if you are good at it. Many people make their money this way..

If your talking about dividend stripping then yes in a bull market it "Can" be but try it in a bear market.!

Obviously you have to be smart about it though because the share will shed its div price when it goes ex div. You just have to be sure it will recover + a bit to get your advantage.

Here is a few Hrs reading on the topic.
Rosella was the best I've ever seen on the topic.

http://aussiestockforums.com.au/forums/showthread.php?t=454

 

[Julia]

I don't day trade, while my comfort zone is broad, its most definitely not ultra short term...i often think that the major "edge" i have is time, its one of my great advantages over the ultra short term punters.

How have you objectively and actually determined that you do have a "major edge" over "ultra short term punters?"

Hey Bill...i would be interested to know just how many dividend and distribution cheques did you get last financial year?

For the record i received 36 payments.

I'd have thought the net amount of dividends would be rather more relevant than the number of cheques!

I manage both mine and the wifes portfolio, between us we got about 44 dividend drops. It doesn't sound like much but I have some large holdings like TLS that pay close to 10% FF yield. As an exercise with TLS (for example only, not suggesting this is a good idea) one could hold 400K worth of that stock and pull 40K a year in dividends tax paid. That is near $800 bucks a week, some people work a year for that kind of money. I have a portfolio full of dividend payers with some preference shares paying 13% gross dividend.

How is your capital going, Bill? Growing? Down?

I've only recently begun to understand the full implications of comfort zones and how they affect behaviour in the individual...in life you can pretty much put any human behaviour in the context of personal comfort zones...a space where the individual is comfortable and thus able to operation rationally and deliberately.

Move them outside that zone, or move the zone and panic and irrationality will begin...if we use trend following as an example one could say that certain people are attracted to trend following because they feel comfortable doing it and have success because they can act with deliberate and rational thought and so profit using the rules of trend following.

Or alternatively you could eschew such emotional notions as comfort zones and say that trend followers (or followers of any given technique) have objectively worked out that this offers them the best means of preserving capital and profits, and minimising losses.

Now when the comfort zone moves for a typical trend follower..say in a steeply falling market they would sell as that's what the rules of trend following tells them to do, and so they stay within there comfort zone by selling...so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding and so liquidate to regain a level of comfort thus accelerating the market decline.

Oh please, SC. Markets fall quickly because a massive number of unconnected people are all sitting around navel gazing and contemplating their 'comfort zones'???

It's no more complicated than the fact that if an uptrend has reversed, we will preserve our profits by exiting the stock. It's a purely objective, non-emotional decision.

Could be that they don't allow emotions to influence their trading and therefore they just apply one of of the three S's when it starts to cost money, ie, Sell, Sack or Stop it.

Good traders don't allow emotions to influence their decisions, the market is just numbers that they work with, emotions distort common sense.

I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.

There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.

I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?

Zackly.

 

[Julia]

QBE has always paid a decent div, sometimes as much as 6.6% per year.

View attachment 44030
4 year chart. OUCH.
(blue chip all the way, can't go wrong, pays a great reliable dividend yield, always about 6%. 6% x $ 13 = 0.78 cps, 0.78 cps / $34.00 ps = 2.3 cps plus you have 62% capital loss. Be careful which stocks pay dividends for you.

QBE is a great example of the futility of buying because (a) it has a decent dividend, and/or (b) It's a so called great business.

This is the thing I just don't get about so many who buy for yield. That's fine if the stock is also growing, or at least trading sideways, but to hold on to a stock where you are losing capital at a far greater rate than your grossed up dividend just makes no sense to me.

Unless, perhaps, you're washed up in a nursing home, don't care about your capital any more, and just need the income to pay the fees.

 

[Ves]

How is your capital going, Bill? Growing? Down?

One thing I have always wondered is; if you have a stock that provides a steadily growing income stream (compared to when you bought it 10 years ago, obviously TLS does not come into this equation) why do you care about short-term capital fluctuations?

Then again, show me a stock with consistent historical dividend growth that has a declining historical share price.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I manage both mine and the wifes portfolio, between us we got about 44 dividend drops. It doesn't sound like much but I have some large holdings like TLS that pay close to 10% FF yield. As an exercise with TLS (for example only, not suggesting this is a good idea) one could hold 400K worth of that stock and pull 40K a year in dividends tax paid. That is near $800 bucks a week, some people work a year for that kind of money. I have a portfolio full of dividend payers with some preference shares paying 13% gross dividend. It is those kind of stocks I buy when everyone sells them at ridiculously low prices, cheers.

Good one Bill.

gg

 

[Bill M]

How is your capital going, Bill? Growing? Down?

In all honestly TLS is down, on paper for the batch that I have now. But I bought and sold this stock heavily at the T3 float. I originally sold 20,000 TLS stock that was in 2 names and that I paid $3.60 for. They hit $4.60 after the float and I sold off the lot for a profit. Then I waited a while and re bought them for lower prices. Although TLS is in the red for this batch I am about square on the capital part of it. In the years since T3 the dividend has been happily collected. TLS is by no means the star of the portfolio.

I do a full weekly summary of all my assets, down to the final calculation, as is warts and all. My portfolio is still going up and I am well up from last year however my portfolio has not increased since February this year. Well it has but this correction has bought me back to February. I am not at all worried about this, it is well positioned for when the market does finally kick off. To be holding firm (for this year) considering all the spending I do and with the major correction that we are experiencing I think that is not such a bad position. Just to clarify to those that don't know me, I am a self funded retiree, I am not a trader of any sorts. I spend several Months a year travelling outside of OZ and I do not need to look at a computer screen daily to manage my investments, cheers.

 

[tech/a]

Bill
As a self funded retiree
Where do you get funds to " buy heavily " in this down turn.?

Or do you have superfluous passive income-- a fair bit of it!

 

[Bill M]

Bill
As a self funded retiree
Where do you get funds to " buy heavily " in this down turn.?

Or do you have superfluous passive income-- a fair bit of it!

I hoard my dividends and put it in UBANK until these downturns come, then I buy but not all at once. I should say, now I do not buy heavily just small parcels these days. Still have some dry powder should it drift to 3800 again. While I am at it, I read your commentary in the XAO Technical Analysis thread, it is very useful and helpful to us all, cheers.

 

[notting]

I think this dog is ready for a good run in the next 12 months. They looked so smug at the meet and with the new wireless tech coming down the line they are very well positioned.
One head wind apart from the idiot running the future fund, I see is the fact that they have had to agree not to price too cheaply to make it hard for the NBN. Can you believe that?

 

[LifeChoices]

Remember the Dow is comprised of only 30 or so stocks.

Thanks for that. I think your post is closest to explaining the large discrepancy between the dow and the xao.

Now that everything is fixed in Europe and the US someone should reopen the "buy with open arms" thread

 

[wayneL]

Bill
As a self funded retiree
Where do you get funds to " buy heavily " in this down turn.?

Or do you have superfluous passive income-- a fair bit of it!

I've asked this question of others elsewhere.

Folks talk as if fully invested and suddenly have boxes of cash when the market goes down the ****-chute.

Not pointing the finger at anyone in particular, but I think there is a fair bit of embellishment at times here.

 

[notting]

Chips for dinner anyone?

 

[LifeChoices]

I've asked this question of others elsewhere.

Folks talk as if fully invested and suddenly have boxes of cash when the market goes down the ****-chute.

Not pointing the finger at anyone in particular, but I think there is a fair bit of embellishment at times here.

Yeah, I know where you are coming from. Lots of fakes here.

If you have endless boxes of money - why even bother with the stock market and this forum. Posts are often about buying in the downturn. I think some peeps must have some very sad lives.

Being in this game is about buying and selling - It seems a lot of people only brag about buying when the market is tanked and people are panicking - very rarely do you hear about people bragging about selling when the market is peaking.

 

[Ves]

Why is it such a stretch to believe that most people have cash reserves?

Do you two seriously put every dollar that you have into the market at any one time?

Sounds like the joke is on you if you do not have any cash reserves.

 

[notting]

It seems a lot of people only brag about buying when the market is tanked and people are panicking - very rarely do you hear about people bragging about selling when the market is peaking.

Maybe they sold too early and feel like idiots, then get very excited when they can finally buy again and feel vindicated.

However, I feel sorry for the old holders! In a market like this.
Yet being up front makes for a better forum!
I did notice a bit of day account flashing from day traders after one or two good one's amidst many!!