Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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WhoToTrust said:
Do it for a year and what do YOU win?
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Have you heard of the microsoft product called excel?

It's like this spreadsheet thing. Anyway, you can work it out from there. Ask Jeeves about it.

Ok, I'll do it for you.

on day one you invested $100 on day 365 you would have $3,740.93 if you made 1% everyday and compounded the interest

What do I win?
 
LifeChoices said:
Have you heard of the microsoft product called excel?

It's like this spreadsheet thing. Anyway, you can work it out from there. Ask Jeeves about it.

Ok, I'll do it for you.

on day one you invested $100 on day 365 you would have $3740.93 if you made 1% everyday and compounded the interest

What do I win?
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Looks like you win 3640 odd bucks, so what percentage over the year has your portfolio increased.

While 365 is over realistic, I am sure you will get my point.
 
WhoToTrust said:
If you trade once per day and make a modest 1%, how much do you make? This is a compounding question and if you are unaware of it, what are you basing your exit strategy on?
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I don't day trade, while my comfort zone is broad, its most definitely not ultra short term...i often think that the major "edge" i have is time, its one of my great advantages over the ultra short term punters.

Its like the ultra short term holders dump stock because the market has moved out of there short term comfort zone right into my long term comfort zone...and so there's a transfer of wealth from them to me...lest that's how it feels sometimes.

Bill M said:
I do not need to redeem my capital nor do I have a margin loan, no forced selling from this investor. Keep up the good work, there is nothing like those dividend cheques coming in.:D
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Hey Bill...i would be interested to know just how many dividend and distribution cheques did you get last financial year?

For the record i received 36 payments.
 
So_Cynical said:
I don't day trade, while my comfort zone is broad, its most definitely not ultra short term...i often think that the major "edge" i have is time, its one of my great advantages over the ultra short term punters.

Its like the ultra short term holders dump stock because the market has moved out of there short term comfort zone right into my long term comfort zone...and so there's a transfer of wealth from them to me...lest that's how it feels sometimes.
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I agree that time is often overlooked.

When I said 'one trade a day' I did not mean intraday, or day trading. I meant for one given day, a profit of 1% was made.

I do not understand this 'comfort zone' you speak of, can you elaborate?
 
WhoToTrust said:
I do not understand this 'comfort zone' you speak of, can you elaborate?
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I've only recently begun to understand the full implications of comfort zones and how they affect behaviour in the individual...in life you can pretty much put any human behaviour in the context of personal comfort zones...a space where the individual is comfortable and thus able to operation rationally and deliberately.

Move them outside that zone, or move the zone and panic and irrationality will begin...if we use trend following as an example one could say that certain people are attracted to trend following because they feel comfortable doing it and have success because they can act with deliberate and rational thought and so profit using the rules of trend following.

Now when the comfort zone moves for a typical trend follower..say in a steeply falling market they would sell as that's what the rules of trend following tells them to do, and so they stay within there comfort zone by selling...so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding and so liquidate to regain a level of comfort thus accelerating the market decline.

Least that's how ive come to look at it.
 
Funnily enough, not investment related, but I had a conversation about comfort zones tonight with a close friend. He left his comfortable job, became more sociable (he was a bit of a shut in). He now earns a better salary, enjoys his job, has expanded his friendship group, is seeing a new girl etc.

Funny what taking a risk does. Comfort zones arent the end of the world.
 
So_Cynical said:
I've only recently begun to understand the full implications of comfort zones and how they affect behaviour in the individual...in life you can pretty much put any human behaviour in the context of personal comfort zones...a space where the individual is comfortable and thus able to operation rationally and deliberately.

Move them outside that zone, or move the zone and panic and irrationality will begin...if we use trend following as an example one could say that certain people are attracted to trend following because they feel comfortable doing it and have success because they can act with deliberate and rational thought and so profit using the rules of trend following.

Now when the comfort zone moves for a typical trend follower..say in a steeply falling market they would sell as that's what the rules of trend following tells them to do, and so they stay within there comfort zone by selling...so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding and so liquidate to regain a level of comfort thus accelerating the market decline.

Least that's how ive come to look at it.
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From what I understand I can understand your point of view. It has it's roots in psychology.

I am no expert in this by any means, but have researched the subject for my own wellbeing and personal interest.

And to elaborate I thing Jung's(?) views on the subconscious are correct!

Forgive me if I have misspelled this name, it is friday night and I have been drinking. :alcohol::alcohol:
 
So_Cynical said:
Now when the comfort zone moves for a typical trend follower..say in a steeply falling market they would sell as that's what the rules of trend following tells them to do, and so they stay within there comfort zone by selling...so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding and so liquidate to regain a level of comfort thus accelerating the market decline.

Least that's how ive come to look at it.
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Could be that they don't allow emotions to influence their trading and therefore they just apply one of of the three S's when it starts to cost money, ie, Sell, Sack or Stop it.

Good traders don't allow emotions to influence their decisions, the market is just numbers that they work with, emotions distort common sense.

Some people allow themselves to be taken out of their comfort zone and then refuse to accept that that it is because of their actions (or inaction) so they look for comfort in blaming others...
So_Cynical said:
so we can see why markets fall so quickly is because a certain number of market participants feel uncomfortable holding
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or are in the business of not giving back profits
 
WhoToTrust said:
Impossible, we are emotional entities, it can not be done. What the are saying is you have to MANAGE you emotions.
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I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.

There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.

I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?
 
Boggo said:
I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.

There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.

I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?
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Ok, yes, emotion CAN be denied. Why are you buying stock? Do you want to succeed(emotion)?
 
Boggo said:
I use a calculator or a couple of mental calculations based on reward/risk to calculate my stop loss when I buy a stock.

There are no emotions in that, its simple numbers based on controlling loss, emotion doesn't come into it.

I don't have to manage emotions because it is just a simple calculation. Why include emotion ?
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Your doing what you feel comfortable doing and your arguably comfortable with it because you know it works for you....your comfort zone includes taking regular small losses...mine doesn't.

Its not about me not accepting reality or being emotional, as anyone can see in my sig i have 12 losing Trades, proof positive that i have been wrong before and accepted that and exited those trades at a loss.
 
WhoToTrust said:
Ok, yes, emotion CAN be denied. Why are you buying stock? Do you want to succeed(emotion)?
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I want to retire early, play golf, ride my bike and take regular holidays.

The end result may have some emotion associated with it if you dig deep enough but you just cannot allow emotion to be a factor or influence in the process of getting there, if you did you would never get there.
Trying to apportion the blame for a poor performance in an erratic market on the assumption that the comfort zones of others have caused the markets to fall is definitely a sign of a form of emotion.
 
Boggo said:
Trying to apportion the blame for a poor performance in an erratic market on the assumption that the comfort zones of others have caused the markets to fall is definitely a sign of a form of emotion.
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Because im looking to 'blame' something to satisfy an emotional need? :cwm10:

I tend to want to have an understanding of why anything happens, ive never thought of it as an emotional need, more a logical need because if i can understand something then i can have empathy and thus a more whole, complete view...see things from the opposite view point and so gain a greater understanding.

Comfort zones are a very easy tool to use in understanding pretty much any human behaviour..this thread for example is a panic thread started by someone who clearly felt uncomfortable with what was happening in the market.

2 years ago at close to the bottom (for Golds stocks) of the first GFC dip, someone sold me shares in TRY for $0.77 CPS ~ sold the other day for $4.07

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2299&p=362067&viewfull=1#post362067

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2299&p=651063&viewfull=1#post651063

Now ive often wondered who in there right mind sells stock in a profitable, unhedged gold miner with no debt and 60 million in cash producing 5000 ounces per month...in the middle of an unprecedented gold bull run?

i can only imagine that who ever sold me those shares that day was felling very uncomfortable or they were totally demented...anyway ive been wanting to publicly thank them so here it is.

Thank you, thank you, thank you...who ever you are. :)
 
skc said:
We can't keep free falling like this for too much longer...

Buying today would probably see one in profit by the end of the week. But unless those profits are taken, heavy losses by end of the month is also a likely scenario.
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I never thought this would come true but what do you know. However, if you did buy Monday and set sensible stop losses you probably got stopped out all on Tuesday morning and still :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: now. Another example of "it's hard to make money even if you are right".

So_Cynical said:
I tend to want to have an understanding of why anything happens, ive never thought of it as an emotional need, more a logical need because if i can understand something then i can have empathy and thus a more whole, complete view...see things from the opposite view point and so gain a greater understanding.

Comfort zones are a very easy tool to use in understanding pretty much any human behaviour..this thread for example is a panic thread started by someone who clearly felt uncomfortable with what was happening in the market.
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I think that's not a bad way to explain things. I just don't know what practical use you can make out of this theory/explanation. In fact it might be an impediment. You might think that people are only selling because they are out of their comfort zone in a volatile market, while they are in fact selling because they are correct in their assessment of the situation.
 
The Gumnut "Buy Ute" is garaged.

One only needs to buy once or twice a decade.

Roll on Wave 3.

gg
 
It's over.

Stop panicking.

The eurobulls are stampeding for the Wild West rodeo - buy your tickets for the show before they runout..

Enjoy the party, dudes!
 
So_Cynical said:
Hey Bill...i would be interested to know just how many dividend and distribution cheques did you get last financial year?

For the record i received 36 payments.
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I manage both mine and the wifes portfolio, between us we got about 44 dividend drops. It doesn't sound like much but I have some large holdings like TLS that pay close to 10% FF yield. As an exercise with TLS (for example only, not suggesting this is a good idea) one could hold 400K worth of that stock and pull 40K a year in dividends tax paid. That is near $800 bucks a week, some people work a year for that kind of money. I have a portfolio full of dividend payers with some preference shares paying 13% gross dividend. It is those kind of stocks I buy when everyone sells them at ridiculously low prices, cheers.
 
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