Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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US and Europe down...dead-cat bounce anyone? :eek

@doctorj

For all the might and power of the Australian economy, it accounts for less than 1% of Global GDP. The EU accounts for around 26% of global GDP and the US around 23%.
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...and hence my confusion, why did we take a 'double' dip compared to the rest last friday. If our markets were down 2%, fair enough, but a double whammy when really our house looks to be in better order than some others....as Swannie would say he goes to bed feeling great 'cause every other treasurer in the world would swap places with him in a hearbeat! :p:

If people in the US and Europe don't shop as much in Walmart and Asda and they stop buying their big screen TVs etc, Japan and China stop buying Australia's rocks. Everything is interconnected and with only 22mm people, Australia is particularly dependant on the health of the global economy.
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Following is a question answered by economic Nobel prize winner Michael Spence, who incidently will be appearing or has appeared? this week at the National Press Gallery. Who also advises China on its growth strategy

But doesn't China's sustained growth depend on the rest of the US and Europe in regard to recession?

Not any more, Spence says. "Right now the emerging economies that are trading with each other are self-sustaining. They can grow even if the major industrial powers just plug along.

"If you go back ten years that wouldn't have been possible. Weak growth in Europe or the United States of 1 or 2 per cent would have dented growth in China and associated emerging nations. But not now. China will become increasingly decoupled as time moves on. Its own emerging middle class will drive its own growth."
 
France and their banks are in trouble; denied by the banks and French government. So, that means they must be in trouble in these markets.
A mixed picture following a people move increasingly to gold. Some Governments may have to unload their gold but China, India and Asia should grab all they can.
Gold touched very close to $1,800 per ounce in New York.
Copper, zinc, lead, nickel etc., are falling.
Will bank troubles in Europe necessarily hit Aussie banks very hard indeed, probably not, but a decline in the sector looks all but certain.
Country wise, basically, Italy, Spain and Portugal problems may cause Germany to exit the euro fairly shortly.
 
Uncle Sam? Can we borrow that machine for a little bit?

Wonder how Faber's US Bond short is traveling?
 
Aww sheeit- Another bloodbath on the cards?

Dow Jones down 520 points...

This is very interesting to watch, as painful as today may be.

I clicked the sell button a few times yesterday but didn't follow through.

Interesting to see what happens today.

Time for some smart people to make some smart buys. I don't think I'll be buying just yet though. Not until the market stabilises a bit.
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
A butterfly in the Amazon forest mate,

A butterfly.

gg
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These moggies are getting murdered faster than I can breed their reinforcements.

Could you please provide GPS coordinates so that I can nuke that darned butterfly before it flatulates again and thereby necessitates the terminatation of my residual feline livestock!
 
Tuesdays low should not be taken out and a lot of gaps will be closed.

Down today, up tomorrow?
 
noirua said:
Country wise, basically, Italy, Spain and Portugal problems may cause Germany to exit the euro fairly shortly.
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This would actually be the best thing for all parties, and would probably be very good for the world economy & stock markets. So I do hope it happens.
 
Starcraftmazter said:
This would actually be the best thing for all parties, and would probably be very good for the world economy & stock markets. So I do hope it happens.
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I'd add one rider to that.... eventually.

Short-term, if that were to happen you could only guess how far some euro stock exchanges would plummet. 10%? 20%? 50%? Closed for business as traders feel too ill to attend?

It 's not all beer and skittles or so simplistic. If the PIIGS (major trading partners of France & Germany) are cut free to sink or swim, how long would it take them to devaluate their individual currencies and inflate their debts away to sustainable levels?

The mind boggles....

Good luck today for anyone trying to trade the swings....
 
There is no exhaustion followed by consolidation until we see that we cannot definitively call a bottom.

For the above to happen (In my view) there will need to be either
(1) a joint governments effort to bandaid up debt AGAIN
(2) governments take a long term view to stop debt and decrease it.

The third option is highly likely
(3) debt has passed the point of repair and we will find a re adjustment of financial economics world wide.

A long way DOWN

Unfortunately if (1) does occur it will just be delaying (3) and making (2) increasingly impossible.
 
ok dow down another 4.5% in overnight trade on EU debt concerns now. Rewind a few months back and the same news would have likely caused a 1-2% drop in the DOW. Seems to me its a massive over reaction unless im missing something.
 
Thank heavens the POO is rising sharply! At least our energy stocks won't get hammered as much...

Oil surged the most in three months in New York after U.S. crude supplies declined the most in a year and demand increased.

Futures rose as inventories fell to a five-month low and demand reached the highest level this year. Oil also gained on speculation that the Federal Reserve will take more action to bolster the economy after the Fed said it would keep interest rates near zero until mid-2013. The dollar slipped to a one-week low against the euro yesterday after the announcement.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-on-fed-statement-iea-sees-risks-in-2012.html

Could get interesting for our inflation figures if the lil' Ozzie bleeder keeps falling and the POO keeps rising?
 
indeck said:
ok dow down another 4.5% in overnight trade on EU debt concerns now. Rewind a few months back and the same news would have likely caused a 1-2% drop in the DOW. Seems to me its a massive over reaction unless im missing something.
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Indeck, All the the hoo ha in the last couple a months have been in with regard to greece which is one of the smallest countrys in the EU.

The hoo ha in the last couple of weeks have been about the down grade of US/ Frances credit rating which is the biggest economy world and the second biggest economy in the EU (i think).

So the stakes are getting bigger!
 
lenny said:
Indeck, All the the hoo ha in the last couple a months have been in with regard to greece which is one of the smallest countrys in the EU.

The hoo ha in the last couple of weeks have been about the down grade of US/ Frances credit rating which is the biggest economy world and the second biggest economy in the EU (i think).

So the stakes are getting bigger!
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Correct.

By GDP for the EU, it is as follows:

1. Germany
2. France
3. United Kingdom
4. Italy
5. Spain
6. Russia
7. Netherlands
and so on...

See trading economics for a more comprehensive overview - http://www.tradingeconomics.com/
 
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