Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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To state the obvious.
We need to whatch the volumes on the rallies.
If they are week then the cruel mistress may be winding back to deliver her sucker punch.
It's not like Euroland is no longer a cause for concern :eek: to understate - they can't print yet.
 
Kauri said:
Does anyone have any idea what fuelled the rally? The biggest turn-around I and possibly many others have seen. Bernanke says rates will not move for 18 months or so .. which I would have thought was a damming indictment of the US economy, or at least his view of it currently. The dow immediately sells off for an hour or so, then takes off and heads for the heavens, possibly following the bond market??.

Before I get castigated by the masses and get told not to worry about the reasons and just trade the charts, what you see etc, that is what I do, I am merely curious about what actually inspired it, (PPT and other American conspiracy theories aside).

Personally for my longer term trading I am standing aside to see if there is enough fuel in the tank to mantain the run or if it was a last powerful sputter before the tank runs dry.

Good trading to all, which ever side you dress ...

Cheers
............. kauri
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A butterfly in the Amazon forest mate,

A butterfly.

gg
 
alexc2005 said:
This is actually what i have been considering at the moment.
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What were you planning when you baught?
The plan is what should hold your hand when fear strikes!
Keep it in mind. If you don't have a plan
Maybe listen to your Dad till then!
The market can make you a total mental case. Will make you feel like yesterday morning till it has all your money!
It's not a giver it's a taker.
Look at all the bears here!
They have eaten all the bulls! Accept for a few Really Fat Ones. :D
 
Kauri said:
Does anyone have any idea what fuelled the rally? The biggest turn-around I and possibly many others have seen. Bernanke says rates will not move for 18 months or so .. which I would have thought was a damming indictment of the US economy, or at least his view of it currently. The dow immediately sells off for an hour or so, then takes off and heads for the heavens, possibly following the bond market??.

Before I get castigated by the masses and get told not to worry about the reasons and just trade the charts, what you see etc, that is what I do, I am merely curious about what actually inspired it, (PPT and other American conspiracy theories aside).

Personally for my longer term trading I am standing aside to see if there is enough fuel in the tank to mantain the run or if it was a last powerful sputter before the tank runs dry.

Good trading to all, which ever side you dress ...

Cheers
............. kauri
Click to expand...

My speculative reason is that US investors think it highly likely that keeping interest rates between 0-0.25% by the Fed will not be enough to stimulate the US economy and Uncle Ben will need to crank up the printing presses again in the near future.

I'm still staying out of the market for the present and reading through the reports being released to work out my strategy going forward.
 
notting said:
What were you planning when you baught?
The plan is what should hold your hand when fear strikes!
Keep it in mind. If you don't have a plan
Maybe listen to your Dad till then!
The market can make you a total mental case. Will make you feel like yesterday morning till it has all your money!
It's not a giver it's a taker.
Look at all the bears here!
They have eaten all the bulls! Accept for a few Really Fat Ones. :D
Click to expand...

My plan from the start was:

Deploy capital into companies that have:

A good history of performance
A good amount of assets with minimal debt
Good results and findings

A prime example of this is AUT.

And my plan has been so far, to hold on to them longer term and reap any rewards.

There is only one share i have that i bought for short term fun and that was a fail. I could have bailed out with profit but i got greedy.

My plan has been to hold all these shares till about nov/dec and bail out into the housing market.

Obviously selling along the way if opportunities presented themselves. But the one reason i haven't sold yet is similar to the reason i didnt sell when AUT was at 3.40. Because i believe that the company will succeed long term.

I probably sound like a bit of a douche from my posts in this thread. But I'm sure you can all see it from the point of view of a young enthusiastic trader getting burnt and not knowing what to do.

Lessons Learnt.
 
Well if oil keeps tanking your plan just might work.
Check back at Christmas. You've rolled the dice!
Good luck.
 
alexc2005 said:
My plan from the start was:

Deploy capital into companies that have:

A good history of performance
A good amount of assets with minimal debt
Good results and findings

A prime example of this is AUT.

And my plan has been so far, to hold on to them longer term and reap any rewards.

There is only one share i have that i bought for short term fun and that was a fail. I could have bailed out with profit but i got greedy.

My plan has been to hold all these shares till about nov/dec and bail out into the housing market.

Obviously selling along the way if opportunities presented themselves. But the one reason i haven't sold yet is similar to the reason i didnt sell when AUT was at 3.40. Because i believe that the company will succeed long term.

I probably sound like a bit of a douche from my posts in this thread. But I'm sure you can all see it from the point of view of a young enthusiastic trader getting burnt and not knowing what to do.

Lessons Learnt.
Click to expand...

AUT quick review:
A good history of performance - only made a profit once in the last 10 years
A good amount of assets with minimal debt - negative Earnings and cash flow, debt coverage negative
Good results and findings - exploration companies are a gamble, there is no way to quantify good results here

It looks like you are gambling.

Normally how it works is like this: someone goes into the stock market, makes a few trades and ends up with a profit (looks easy doesn't it), then a string of losses follows as a preparation for the final act, that is the market ending up in a bearish orgy of red while the Beethoven's 5th Symphony plays in the background lol... the result: the wannabe trader ends up in deep sh*t.

The bottom line is: it takes a minimum of 2 years and a major drop to develop a wining strategy, look at it this way, it is like paying for a hands on training course.

If you believe that you have what it takes to win then go for it, the rewards will be handsome one day.:)
 
notting said:
To state the obvious.
We need to whatch the volumes on the rallies.
If they are week then the cruel mistress may be winding back to deliver her sucker punch.
It's not like Euroland is no longer a cause for concern :eek: to understate - they can't print yet.
Click to expand...

How many of you are aware of the Vickers Insiders Reports?

This is an interesting methodology to ascertain buying volumes amongst those that should know the economic future of the various companies...IE those that WORK inside the company.

The report details industry and market wide ratio's of buyers to sellers that fit within the category of "inside".

It's copywrite material so can't post it here...but worthwhile in looking at.

Cheers

Sir O
 
littleshire said:
AUT quick review:
A good history of performance - only made a profit once in the last 10 years
A good amount of assets with minimal debt - negative Earnings and cash flow, debt coverage negative
Good results and findings - exploration companies are a gamble, there is no way to quantify good results here

It looks like you are gambling.

Normally how it works is like this: someone goes into the stock market, makes a few trades and ends up with a profit (looks easy doesn't it), then a string of losses follows as a preparation for the final act, that is the market ending up in a bearish orgy of red while the Beethoven's 5th Symphony plays in the background lol... the result: the wannabe trader ends up in deep sh*t.

The bottom line is: it takes a minimum of 2 years and a major drop to develop a wining strategy, look at it this way, it is like paying for a hands on training course.

If you believe that you have what it takes to win then go for it, the rewards will be handsome one day.:)
Click to expand...

When is sharetrading not a gamble?

Banks maybe?

But then again, i got a broker recommendation to buy ANZ at a cheap $22.

Not so cheap now is it?

As long as i learn from this, I'm happy.

As i said I'm only 22, I have a long time ahead of me to mature as a trader and as a researcher.

Just wondering if this really is a dead cat bounce or not.

Seems to be positive sentiment for the rest of the week. But I can't really tell.
 
McCoy Pauley said:
My speculative reason is that US investors think it highly likely that keeping interest rates between 0-0.25% by the Fed will not be enough to stimulate the US economy and Uncle Ben will need to crank up the printing presses again in the near future.

I'm still staying out of the market for the present and reading through the reports being released to work out my strategy going forward.
Click to expand...

That's my read as well, although I think the market was as confused as I was last night (nothing to do with the fact that I was up at 4:15am).

If the Fed announced QE3 last night, the market would be slaughtered if the package was too small. On the other hand, the bond market would be slaughtered if the package was a huge shock and awe - the Chinese might actually reduce their bond buying and that will scare the bananas out of everyone.

So instead the Fed went the cleaver way. Rather than show you a weapon and risk it not having the desired effect (Chinese to Fed: You call that a stimulus package? This is a stimulus package! (Picture a Chinese guy with accent wearing a dundee hat)), the Fed says "We've got plenty of weapons. Try us."

And all the bears ran away as quickly as they could. For now.
 
alexc2005 said:
My plan from the start was:

Deploy capital into companies that have:

A good history of performance
A good amount of assets with minimal debt
Good results and findings

A prime example of this is AUT.
Click to expand...

My plan for me to become a masterchef is to:

- Cook dishes that are delicious
- Plate them up like an expert
- Cook from the heart

Well. Great plan, but not actionable.
 
alexc2005 said:
When is sharetrading not a gamble?
Click to expand...
I’ll give you a reply based on my strategy; every trader is different so there you go.
Let’s illustrate this with an example, let assume your parents give you their house as a gift, it is a nice house with water views and independent valuators value it at 1 million. The problem is there is a single real estate agent town, and he announces its price in front of your house every second from 10am to 4pm and offers you to buy your house for some X amount, or to sell you a similar one for the same X amount.
Now, most of the time, the price is close to your valuation so you live in there comfortable knowing that all is all right. The problem is, the guy drinks a lot and when he does he comes offering you ridiculous high or low prices depending on his mood, this doesn’t happen every day of course, but it does from time to time.
You can outsmart this guy, can’t you? The plan is simple, when he is pricing your house ridiculous low, you buy houses from him, when he does the opposite you sell. As simple as this sounds, the inner workings of our brain makes this very hard to achieve in practice, very hard but not impossible that is.
short answer: it not a gamble when you know how much your stocks are worth.
alexc2005 said:
Banks maybe?
Click to expand...
I will stay away from banks, they are over exposed to a high level of private borrowings at the moment.
alexc2005 said:
Just wondering if this really is a dead cat bounce or not.
Seems to be positive sentiment for the rest of the week. But I can't really tell.
Click to expand...
All my indicators tell me there is volatility ahead. Too hard to tell at this stage, having said that, I have been accumulating for the last 3-4 days.:)
 
For those who follow that the market usually fills any gaps: I notice most shares now have gaps both above and below following the past couple of days, which ones will be filled first, if at all, those above or those further down?

Cheers
.......... Kauri
 
When is share trading not a gamble?
Click to expand...

When you understand RISKand
Positive expectancy.

When you dont care how the market Gyrates
and you treat it as a business.
You know WHY your trading WILL return you a nett profit over time.

Your right----right now your gambling and your NOT alone.
 
short answer: it not a gamble when you know how much your stocks are worth.
Click to expand...


Still very much a gamble.
"Knowing" is an opinion.---everyone has one--very few match--thats why stock moves either way!
It isnt an edge.
You dont have risk mitigation for the situations where your valuation which is undervalued today---becomes tommorows MARKET opinion of OVERVALUED.

Most hold becuase--THEIR valuation is of course correct and the market clearly has it wrong.

JUST GO LOOK AT THE PEN THREAD!

PEN has been UNDERVALUED from 16c to 5c---according to one very experienced Fundamentalist.

A lot to wade through but worth the read.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=89
 
Muschu said:
DOW futures currently down 35..... An expression of confusion?
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are the futures markets a direct prediction of what will happen?

E.g. ASX futures are at 4108 atm.
Does that mean assuming we close at say 4200, tommorow is expected to drop to 4108?

Not sure how it works? Maybe here isn't the best place to ask...
 
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