Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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tech/a said:
Still very much a gamble.
"Knowing" is an opinion.---everyone has one--very few match--thats why stock moves either way!
It isnt an edge.
You dont have risk mitigation for the situations where your valuation which is undervalued today---becomes tommorows MARKET opinion of OVERVALUED.

Most hold becuase--THEIR valuation is of course correct and the market clearly has it wrong.

JUST GO LOOK AT THE PEN THREAD!

PEN has been UNDERVALUED from 16c to 5c---according to one very experienced Fundamentalist.

A lot to wade through but worth the read.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5004&page=89
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I don't know about your strategy Duck, but I use the following mitigation mechanisms:
- margin of safety
- diversification
- continuous (ongoing) valuations and review of my portfolio.
For what I have seen (and I have been doing this for a few years), a few winners make the whole exercise worth it.
 
In rare stroke of luck I have managed to find a picture of ALEX yesterday.


Snort.gif
 
nomore4s said:
Not so enjoyable today:(:p:
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Yesterday was stunning... today? EPIC. When markets snap back all the pairs also snap back with vengence.

EPIC day.png

Did lose a few $K open profit last night on my puts... they should come good I think/hope/pray.

skyQuake said:
I doubt diversification does much compared to say 20 years ago.

Too many index bots (and pairs traders) :p:
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Hey! Don't put me in the same camp as the bots!

tech/a said:
JUST GO LOOK AT THE PEN THREAD!

PEN has been UNDERVALUED from 16c to 5c---according to one very experienced Fundamentalist.
Click to expand...

That fundamentalist is also quite optimistic. The key is to get the analysis right, be conservative and look for trouble. My optimistic valuation of PEN is 6c before Fukushima, and untouchable after.
 
Tech, It seems you've moved toward trading intraday over recent times (or, more so), is this because of current market conditions not favouring systems trading etc?

Or simply more profit potential, is your intraday trades still technically motivated, VSA etc? If your making that sort of cash one can obviously understand the attraction.

Cheers
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Shaun.

I still portfolio trade but not the mechanical systems I traded a few years ago.
They still work fine but Ive managed to achieve better returns discretionary trading.
I have noticed though that in $$ terms it is a lot less as I am not trading with as much for as long and not compounding the winnings. Mind you a 2002-2007 bull run isnt around either.---which is when I sat on techtrader for 4yrs.

A few years ago I discovered Index Futures and have finally settled on FTSE---dont mind the DAX and must have a look at HSI.Once you know the beast they are good earners and trade reasonable hrs.

As for Analysis.My portfolio trades use a number of scans set around a suped up Techtrader search.
Yes I definately look for pullbacks in trends and have searches to specifically find the ones I want.
VSA and my own tweeks to VSA are a large part of my Futures trading. Yes they do form a part of my portfolio trading as well particularly if I see a runner and belt it.
TVN was the last one I remember.

I would gladly take the option of sitting $$s in a long term portfolio---but find and think that in THIS market and in the forseeable future longer term portfolio trading will be very difficult and frustrating as profits evaporate!

Im risk averse.
If I take care of RISK then Profits come---.
Im wrong often but not for long!!!
 
skc said:
Yesterday was stunning... today? EPIC. When markets snap back all the pairs also snap back with vengence.

View attachment 43953

Did lose a few $K open profit last night on my puts... they should come good I think/hope/pray.



Hey! Don't put me in the same camp as the bots!



That fundamentalist is also quite optimistic. The key is to get the analysis right, be conservative and look for trouble. My optimistic valuation of PEN is 6c before Fukushima, and untouchable after.
Click to expand...

There are exceptions to every rule and you are one of them
Although I do think you have some technical input to your trading---is that right?

There are few Fundies I have anytime for---your on my Xmas list.
 
skc said:
Yesterday was stunning... today? EPIC. When markets snap back all the pairs also snap back with vengence.

View attachment 43953

Did lose a few $K open profit last night on my puts... they should come good I think/hope/pray.
Click to expand...

Good work! No way can I compete with that even though I ended up having quite a good day with the arvo session of the HSI.
 
The ducks giving me nightmairs and I can't find my cat.
At least the futures are only 1% down. Looks like I might get a feed tomorrow.:eek:
 
nomore4s said:
Good work! No way can I compete with that even though I ended up having quite a good day with the arvo session of the HSI.
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Thanks. The 2 days of complete mayhem put everything out of whack and today is the first real normal day for a while and was perfect for pairs trading. I even made money on dogs like HVN today...

I will post a screen shot when I get a daily loss of 5 figures just to show that it's not always sunshine and apple pies. Hopefully later rather than sooner.

tech/a said:
There are exceptions to every rule and you are one of them
Although I do think you have some technical input to your trading---is that right?

There are few Fundies I have anytime for---your on my Xmas list.
Click to expand...

I use technical input to much of my trading but none in my funny position thread.

I also use fundamentals to complement technicals... chart looks good and posied for breakout and company is undervalued are good buys. Chart looks good with good fundamental news (that I can't actually value, but I view as positive) I will buy with a price stop.
 
How unpredictable a world can it be ??? ... ... DOW futures now down 254... I'm off to bed but volatility suggests that DOW futures may be well off the mark... in either direction.
 
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