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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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New to all this and watching a lot of YT investing channels and it appears as far as the financial universe goes everything all the time is about to collapse leading to famine, pestilence, societal breakdown and cannibalism. It's like the finances channels are scripted by the old testament writers.

I am starting to think the finances/investment crowd need to fix their make up, stop being so melodramatic and chill.

It's PTSD inducing, I just wanna keep my savings level with or just above inflation and call it a day.
 
3 hound said:
New to all this and watching a lot of YT investing channels and it appears as far as the financial universe goes everything all the time is about to collapse leading to famine, pestilence, societal breakdown and cannibalism. It's like the finances channels are scripted by the old testament writers.

I am starting to think the finances/investment crowd need to fix their make up, stop being so melodramatic and chill.

It's PTSD inducing, I just wanna keep my savings level with or just above inflation and call it a day.
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now while you are watching all that , keep thinking about better ways to invest that cash ( for you )

it might be better skills/education , or gold or silver maybe grow a little garden ( take some bite out of your food bill )

but yes at the worst all those terrible things are possible

remember all that discomfort and suffering is called .. experience

( keep watching for opportunities , big and small )
 
3 hound said:
New to all this and watching a lot of YT investing channels and it appears as far as the financial universe goes everything all the time is about to collapse leading to famine, pestilence, societal breakdown and cannibalism. It's like the finances channels are scripted by the old testament writers.

I am starting to think the finances/investment crowd need to fix their make up, stop being so melodramatic and chill.

It's PTSD inducing, I just wanna keep my savings level with or just above inflation and call it a day.
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It seems to be an allure of calling the crash. There are no Guru points for being a permabull because you're going to be right most of the time anyway and when it does crash you look like a goofball.

Robert Prechter lived for years off getting one particular bearish call right... Even though everything else after that was dead wrong.
 
wayneL said:
It seems to be an allure of calling the crash. There are no Guru points for being a permabull because you're going to be right most of the time anyway and when it does crash you look like a goofball.

Robert Prechter lived for years off getting one particular bearish call right... Even though everything else after that was dead wrong.
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It's like the market will fluctuate up and down but on average over a long enough time period there will be an upward trend - every YT market analyst ever.
 
wayneL said:
It seems to be an allure of calling the crash. There are no Guru points for being a permabull because you're going to be right most of the time anyway and when it does crash you look like a goofball.

Robert Prechter lived for years off getting one particular bearish call right... Even though everything else after that was dead wrong.
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yep , the trick is to get the money on the right bet ( if investing/trading )

or your call so outrageous but CORRECT , that everyone remembers it ( and hey, dude you have a reputation )

( imo ) a permabull relies on inflation ( spending power devaluation ) while the permabear watches productivity and efficiency
 
How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..
 
3 hound said:
How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..
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IIRC, Buffet/Graham had some research on that point. My recollection is a little bit hazy so do your own research there... But I think that's where you will find your answer.
 
3 hound said:
How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..
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now one way of doing that is to measure units .. say hours the average worker ( still uses imprecise data ) to work to buy a house ( car , etc )

another way is to calculate in ounces of gold ( still imprecise because of gold price manipulation )

now a confounding factor in this is the quality change ( over the years ) of the asset bought ( 'average ' doesn't really count if the house is shoddily built in some perfab factory , or a current new car is now up to the standard of a 1990's Rolls Royce )

you could try the 'loaves of bread metric ' ( or something similar )

i saw too much data manipulated over the years , so just try for a 'livable income ' for the cash invested ( 100% rise in your portfolio doesn't mean much if a kilo of rice has quadrupled )

try it in kilos of rice , it can't be much worse that other comparative metrics used elsewhere

( but the short answer is you aren't supposed to be able to work it out , easily , the government is very happy to steal your productivity away via inflation and taxation , and hopes you don't notice the crime in progress )

cheers

Alternate Inflation Charts

Alternate Inflation Charts

www.shadowstats.com www.shadowstats.com

this guy makes a plausible stab at real inflation

DYOR
 
@3 hound

More grist for the mill. But as way of disclaimer, I am halfway into this analysis (but halfway into the crack up boom scenario)

Either way I claim Guru status

 
3 hound said:
Can you explain a little what's going on here plz.
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Lots of YouTube commentary from credible sources regarding movements in the yen at the moment

Here's one which I think is pretty good



Crack up boom scenario is straight out of Austrian economics theory and is easily searchable. Von Mises institute is very good site for that.
 
wayneL said:
@3 hound

More grist for the mill. But as way of disclaimer, I am halfway into this analysis (but halfway into the crack up boom scenario)

Either way I claim Guru status

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true, but Japan has been flapping those wings for over 20 years ( but i am NOT saying the status quo will last forever )
the problem is it is NOT just Japan flapping those wings in the same fashion
 
3 hound said:
How does one disentangle the rise in the overall value of the stock market as a reflection of overall wealth generation versus the overall value of the stock market increase is more a reflection of the fact that it is made up of more dollars each worth less than dollars at a previous time..
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That is very true, then add to that the fact a lot of companies actually go broke or perform extremely badly, AMP a case in point.
IMO that is why EFT's like VAS are doing so well, as you say the market is a reflection of its value at a given point in time, but the same companies may not be making up the market at those chosen points of time.
So being in the market for the long haul isn't the whole story, being in the market and in the right shares is just as important IMO, the market value grows as the countries underlying economy grows but technology etc may change the makeup of the share market.
So EFT's consisting of the top companies and adjusting the weighting to their ranking, might be hard to beat, not impossible but over the long term one has to wonder.
I have no EFT's ATM, but after watching VAS from the covid stock market crash to present, if there is another crash I think I will be buying some. :2twocents
 
Am about halfway through this, link below.
Interesting.
Earlier in the year, I noticed world money flows out of the US and Aus, some into the Yen, but more so the Euro. Soon after Ukraine started, tables were turned.
Money rushed largely back to the US.
Japan's inflation indicating a weaker economy, better returns in the US.
Petrodollar system still working, and working well... those sneaky Americans. The whole situation smells of assisting the US in their can kicking exercises.

www.japantimes.co.jp

Why has the yen fallen to a 20-year low?

Since the beginning of March, the value of the yen has plummeted against the dollar, the euro and the British pound. Bloomberg economy reporter Yuko Takeo joins Deep Dive to explain why.
www.japantimes.co.jp www.japantimes.co.jp
 
Japan has raised the issue with the G7.
It is possible the Yen will soon bottom out.
I'm wondering why Japan's inflation is so low?
Still playing the pandemic card. Are they that self sufficient? High inflation couldn't be too far off though... an inevitable situation being an importer of commodities for their manufacturing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-...what-rapid-declines-finmin-suzuki-2022-04-21/
 
3 hound said:
Can you explain a little what's going on here plz.
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basically what is happening is some nations are borrowing more than they can ever possibly repay , this isn't a problem ( to modern financial thinking ) as long as you can pay the interest incurred on that debt

so while interest rates are low ( or negative ) everything LOOKS fine , when interest rate rise to a realistic level to the risks taken (remember some of these nations will NEVER be able to repay what is borrowed even at 1% interest ( per year ) .. so what is a fair rate of interest to someone who is highly unlikely to repay the principle ( despite the ravages of inflation ) surely not 1% .

say you are a South American nation ( most are politically unstable ) so many are lent money at rates over 10% per year , now the lender assesses they will never get all that money back ( the borrower will probably refinance later down the track ) BUT the lender will recover the investment via interest repayments in say 10 years , double that cash in twenty years , etc etc and the borrower is locked in for decades

( and the lender normally takes out insurance to cover the possibility of a default , that is just straight de-risking strategy )

now Japan has created a special scenario it has borrowed most of the money from the citizens ( current and future ) but ALSO has sold that debt as an asset to ( mainly ) Japanese pension funds AND bought ( via ETFs ) massive holdings in the Japanese stock markets , to prop up the stock market and boost 'the perceived wealth ' of the citizen , this is all done with the money Japan can not afford to pay back , but relies on the national spirit to resist overthrowing the government ( system )
 
wayneL said:
True, true.

It's the kicking the can down the road scenario. How far can you kick it?
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well they have done so , far longer than i imagined possible , can they continue to do so for the rest of my life ( after i am gone , it won't matter to me )

so i guess Warren Buffet gets the kudos here with the pearl of wisdom ' the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent '
 
divs4ever said:
basically what is happening is some nations are borrowing more than they can ever possibly repay , this isn't a problem ( to modern financial thinking ) as long as you can pay the interest incurred on that debt

so while interest rates are low ( or negative ) everything LOOKS fine , when interest rate rise to a realistic level to the risks taken (remember some of these nations will NEVER be able to repay what is borrowed even at 1% interest ( per year ) .. so what is a fair rate of interest to someone who is highly unlikely to repay the principle ( despite the ravages of inflation ) surely not 1% .

say you are a South American nation ( most are politically unstable ) so many are lent money at rates over 10% per year , now the lender assesses they will never get all that money back ( the borrower will probably refinance later down the track ) BUT the lender will recover the investment via interest repayments in say 10 years , double that cash in twenty years , etc etc and the borrower is locked in for decades

( and the lender normally takes out insurance to cover the possibility of a default , that is just straight de-risking strategy )

now Japan has created a special scenario it has borrowed most of the money from the citizens ( current and future ) but ALSO has sold that debt as an asset to ( mainly ) Japanese pension funds AND bought ( via ETFs ) massive holdings in the Japanese stock markets , to prop up the stock market and boost 'the perceived wealth ' of the citizen , this is all done with the money Japan can not afford to pay back , but relies on the national spirit to resist overthrowing the government ( system )
Click to expand...

Geez why would you ever lend to an unstable country and what happens if they outright refuse to make payments?
 
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