Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Currently, we have the UK, EU, now Australia tapering or stopping QE altogether
The US has announced it will happen soon, so with such a large amount of bond buying withdrawn, you would have to think this drying up of liquidity will have a negative effect on most economies, given that some companies have been on the QE juice for nigh on ten years.
Still keeping my powder dry.
No where near enough blood in the streets yet, merely a trickle from a flesh wound.
Mick
 
Global equity markets look like the could be in for another round of volatility, and potentially a fresh cycle lower after last night’s hot US CPI print.

At the time of writing, the ASX200 is still on track for second consecutive weekly gain despite being down around 0.7% on the day. However, yesterday’s rally coming to a halt around the 200-day MA could be extremely significant over the mid-term.

With the 200-day line having acted as a strong support level during December, it could now switch to a become long-standing resistance.

It’s important to remember that all trading carries risk. However, it’ll be worth watching if Wednesday’s rejection leads to another leg lower, or if a hold above 4200 can spark a retest and potential breakout of the moving average.
 
From Wall street on Parade
The stock market indices that get all the headlines have failed to capture the brutal deterioration that has been occurring for months among the individual stock components of those indices.

In early February, Bank of America reported that 46 percent of Nasdaq’s component companies were more than 50 percent below their 52-week highs. And the deterioration in breadth began long before February.

On December 28, 2021, Wall Street On Parade ran this headline: A Tale of Two Markets: S&P 500 Notches Its 69th Record Close as the Bottom Falls Out of the Nasdaq. We noted in the article that “On December 3 there were 585 new 52-week lows on the Nasdaq stock market versus 12 new 52-week highs. To look at it another way, 48.75 times more stocks were setting new 52-week lows than were reaching new 52-week highs. That doesn’t sound like the definition of a bull market to us.”
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Looks like a stock market fall, walks like a stock market fall, smells like a stock market fall, quacks like a stock market fall, buts it is actually a duck.
Mick
 
Sean K said:
Great book.
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Hmm, did not know there was a book by the title, looks interesting and definitely will put it in the queue of books to read.

I first saw the phrase coined by Stuart Johnston, a futures options trader whose book i can't remember the name of, but a very interesting and enlightning read too.

FWIW
 
wayneL said:
Hmm, did not know there was a book by the title, looks interesting and definitely will put it in the queue of books to read.

I first saw the phrase coined by Stuart Johnston, a futures options trader whose book i can't remember the name of, but a very interesting and enlightning read too.

FWIW
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I personally rate it much higher than what is indicated in the Amazon link.

Some of his strategies I wouldn't implement in a month of Sundays, but still a very interesting read and entertaining to boot.

I read this took quite a long time ago and some of the takeaways I still use to this day.

FWIW

Amazon product ASIN 0471226858
 
The ASX200 is trading 0.3% higher, at the time of writing, following strong GDP data showing the Aussie economy's rebound during Q4 2021, as VIC and NSW emerged from lockdowns. With overall data for Q1 also looking promising so far, can a strong economic outlook help bolster the Aussie market from risk-off sentiment that the Russia-Ukraine war is creating overseas?

All trading carries risk, and it'll be important to monitor all factors as the situation in Ukraine is still showing signs of escalating, and adding to the bearish pressure on risk-assets.
 
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ASX200 has traded in a range between 7200 and 6950, signaling significant demand from investors on any dips below 7000.

However, holding support around this key psychological level could be at risk with new lockdown restrictions in China joining the Ukraine crisis, and important central bank developments, on the list of things that could weigh on risk sentiment.

All trading carries risk, but with commodity prices already tumbling on the news, will we see the ASX start a new leg lower today?
 
CityIndex said:
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ASX200 has traded in a range between 7200 and 6950, signaling significant demand from investors on any dips below 7000.

However, holding support around this key psychological level could be at risk with new lockdown restrictions in China joining the Ukraine crisis, and important central bank developments, on the list of things that could weigh on risk sentiment.

All trading carries risk, but with commodity prices already tumbling on the news, will we see the ASX start a new leg lower today?
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@CityIndex I see your on AusFinance in Reddit also .....

Gunnerguy
 
Self promotion is an art, it seems. Now generated by AI. Index, you've been fingered

Anyhow, as it is the Ides of March, it's a good time to extend caution . Beware. Though optimistically:
ut annare perannareque commode liceat
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Self promotion is an art, it seems. Now generated by AI. Index, you've been fingered

Anyhow, as it is the Ides of March, it's a good time to extend caution . Beware. Though optimistically:
ut annare perannareque commode liceat
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So what do you suggest we sacrifice to complete the circle?
Its enormously difficult to find a Virgin these days, so maybe a goat will do??
Mick
 
Tech stocks have struggled all year on monetary policy speculation, so wasn’t surprising to see Chair Powell’s hawkish comments add to their misery as yields resume their move higher.

What is concerning is that the ASX’s heavy weighting in commodity stocks, which has been its saving grace so far, could now also begin to drag the index lower as mining giants have been releasing weak quarterly reports, despite the surge in commodity prices.

Energy and basic materials led the S&P500 lower overnight, while mining shares also held the FTSE back amid a rally across other European indices yesterday.

All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see how this translates into the ASX200 as well with shares currently close to 1.6% in early trade.

Any chance of the index recovering to hold support at its 10-day MA around 7500 today, or are we in for a deeper pullback?
 
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