Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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According to Anthony Murphy of Lucerne Investment Partners, we should be getting ready for a 5Pc Interest rate.
From The Australian
“We’ve already seen rationalisation start to come into the market. We can see that institutions and investors as a whole are no longer prepared to just pay up for these high-growth, expensive companies, many of which are not actually generating profits,” Mr Murphy said.
“If you look at the irrational behaviour happening over the last 12 months, it’s resulted in 60 out of the ASX top 200 companies not being profitable. That’s alarming.”

While capital market conditions were favourable over the past two years, with excess liquidity pumped into the system, these hyper-growth businesses were the outperformers, Mr Murphy said.

“But they are highly reliant on capital markets supporting them; they’ve got to keep going back to the well in order to survive,” he said.
That well will run dry quickly if rates jump up to the level Mr Murphy forecasts. He sees the Reserve Bank kicking off its own rate-rise cycle by the middle of the year, well before the 2024 start date the central bank was tipping just months ago.
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While its debatable as to whether we get to 5%, the stunning part is the fat that 28% of ASX top 200 companies are not profitable.
So what drives investors to put their hard earned money into these companies?
Strange times indeed.
Mick
 
I am watching (US market) breadth very closely at the moment.

Getting pretty close to overbought in the short term (where's kid hustlr?)
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But longer term breadth measures are not super encouraging. Want to see BPSPX above 60, SPXA200R above 60 and NYSI back to 500...

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waterbottle said:
Facebook misses earnings overnight, down a whopping 22% after hours. NASDAQ futures aren't looking too great either.

Is this the second leg down after a dead cat bounce? Hmm
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It could be the case, especially when looking at the way volume on S&P500 futures has been declining over the last few days of gains. The lack of bulls could call the strength of this bounce into question.

However, we are only about halfway through the US earnings season, and there’s still plenty of big names left to report, including the likes of Amazon, Snap, and Shell tomorrow. If they can provide a more positive outlook on the upcoming quarter as opposed to Meta, we could see buyers step in and continue to push the market higher.

All trading carries risk, so it will be important to watch how this unfolds before making any decisions.
 
mullokintyre said:
According to Anthony Murphy of Lucerne Investment Partners, we should be getting ready for a 5Pc Interest rate.
From The Australian

While its debatable as to whether we get to 5%, the stunning part is the fat that 28% of ASX top 200 companies are not profitable.
So what drives investors to put their hard earned money into these companies?
Strange times indeed.
Mick
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I have no doubt that rates will rise but 5% seems a bit steep.

Unlike previous cycles, the banks will not benefit, too exposed to property default and lack of spread between deposits and lends.

Avoiding inflation and keeping unemployment down seems to be the mantra, so for us here in Australia I see Materials the way to go.

I should state that I do not like banks.

gg
 
waterbottle said:
NASDAQ down 3.7%.... FB lost 25% of its value in a single trading day... These are wild movements.

Now we await AMZN earnings. If they've missed then there will be more pain.
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Well that was a king hit indeed.
Amazon has its AWS which is a truly successfull business and online shopping so not complete vapour ware..but expectations are so high.
Even decent results might not be enough to stop the slide
Dead car bounce or not, we will know by tomorrow.
If Amazon has great results the asx will have no clues on where to go.
Fall in sympathy with the US or jump on an expected rebound tonight?
But if Amazon disappoints, down we go
 
And amazon results disappointing but as they announce they will charge more, after falling 8% today, now jumping 17%. In aftermarket ..why not??
Hum.. i should look at fractal and cosmic ray frequency to play these stocks
So is it a buy or a sell on asx?
 
waterbottle said:
NASDAQ down 3.7%.... FB lost 25% of its value in a single trading day... These are wild movements.

Now we await AMZN earnings. If they've missed then there will be more pain.
Click to expand...
With reference to the so-called "FAANG" stocks which have been dominant in recent times, that's really not working anymore.

Meta (Facebook), Amazon and Netflix aren't contributing to growth of the index that's very clear. All have either broken down or at best gone sideways in recent times.

Of the other two, Apple's still in a clear uptrend but Alphabet (Google) now looks at least suspect for a topping process.

We were in a FAANG market, which has become an AG market and looks to just becoming an A.

Once Apple peaks, game over for that whole bunch and whilst they're not ASX stocks, they've had such a role in the overall boom in recent years that their rolling over is a significant event that'll likely have broader impact. One classic sign of a major top is that one by one, the leaders of the bull peak and rollover such that continued growth of the index relies on few and fewer participants. :2twocents
 
well a switch from 'growth' ( tech ) stocks , to either safe havens or div. stocks would be far from painless ( both here and the US )

Stock Markets Face A Rocky Road

www.investing.com

Stock Markets Face A Rocky Road | Investing.com

Market Overview Analysis by Michael Kramer covering: S&P 500, Netflix Inc, NASDAQ Composite, Meta Platforms Inc. Read Michael Kramer's latest article on Investing.com
www.investing.com
 
waterbottle said:
Or there may be some new growth industry. Pie in the sky thinking makes me believe it'll be associated with the green revolution, but governments haven't convincingly moved in that direction.
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I want to know which companies will be designing the social credit score system for us... They'll make a motza.
 
wayneL said:
I want to know which companies will be designing the social credit score system for us... They'll make a motza.
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How do you reckon this will be applied and policed? Every time you do something you have to QR code in? Buying food, petrol, clothing, flights, hotels, breathing, etc.
 
Sean K said:
How do you reckon this will be applied and policed? Every time you do something you have to QR code in? Buying food, petrol, clothing, flights, hotels, breathing, etc.
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you know, the QR code you are supposed to check in, to prevend omicron from giving you fever
then step 2 reconciliation with mobile phone location and increased fine for not checking in, lastly the app itself will be always on and ratting on you unless phone is battery less
 
qldfrog said:
you know, the QR code you are supposed to check in, to prevend omicron from giving you fever
then step 2 reconciliation with mobile phone location and increased fine for not checking in, lastly the app itself will be always on and ratting on you unless phone is battery less
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I somehow believe it will be embedded with apple samsung etc

do not expect an australian company making a moza on that, will have to be 100% owned by the US
 
Ummm my last two phones have non-removable batteries ( well not easily removed , at least ) now removing the SIM card is only a partial solution and MAYBE turning off Wi-Fi and Bluetooth will help ... but only a matter of time before a solution will arrive ( and be officially frowned on )
 
divs4ever said:
Ummm my last two phones have non-removable batteries ( well not easily removed , at least ) now removing the SIM card is only a partial solution and MAYBE turning off Wi-Fi and Bluetooth will help ... but only a matter of time before a solution will arrive ( and be officially frowned on )
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Removing sim might actually help, but WiFi and Bluetooth off can be bypassed.
And now that we have starlink, it is just a matter of time before every phone from the west has a default starlink access embedded..for safety purpose of course
And who control starlink? Not the Russians or the Chineses.
What a wonderful world..
But back to thread: more Apple company support from US government.
While i hate Apple tech and PR, this is one share to get at the next crash
 
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nope ! i have an iPhone ( which was a gift )

i used to like Apple back in the days of PowerPC ( and earlier ) now days it is just another product , and there are plenty of free Unixes which are viable alternatives ( if you can live without the app. store )

deserves to be welded in the dungeons of Hell

watch Qualcomm (wink ) it has patents ( registered everywhere including China ) so many Apple has to push others in starting anti-trust suits ( so Qualcomm won't have time to sue Apple )
 
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