Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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wayneL said:
Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, bonds are selling off a bit.

It's not a "the ASX is it officially tanking" moment yet, but I must say I have the hairs standing up on the back of my neck at the moment.
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frugal.rock said:
Plenty of money has been flowing in this year, it's only natural most of the recently popped darlings blow off steam, profit taking.

Things are only down as much as they are up on a good day...?

I do wonder, how many people read the thread title and start panic selling? ?
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In context for me on the XAO panic thread is that Crypto BTC has dropped 10% in the last 4-6 hours.

At the other end from silly bugger trading/slots, BHP has dropped nearly 5% today and approaching @Sean K 's resting consolidation area early next week by the looks of it.

There is obvious instability. And it is everywhere. (except in Gold, sorry had to get that in but it is true )

I wouldn't even saddle one of yer horses @wayneL .

My shout, Cheers to everyone for the weekend. What a wonderful life.

gg
 
There is some strong pessimistic sentiment from Jeremy Grantham.
The fact is if enough people think shortselling is the way to go and/or "Get out now ! " the markets will collapse. No question about it.

www.abc.net.au

'We face the largest potential markdown of perceived wealth in US history': Leading investor warns of crash as stock markets dive

Prominent investor Jeremy Grantham warns US stock markets are in a "super bubble" that is set to crash, while Wall Street gave up strong early gains to finish in the red again overnight, with the ASX following.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
basilio said:
There is some strong pessimistic sentiment from Jeremy Grantham.
The fact is if enough people think shortselling is the way to go and/or "Get out now ! " the markets will collapse. No question about it.

www.abc.net.au

'We face the largest potential markdown of perceived wealth in US history': Leading investor warns of crash as stock markets dive

Prominent investor Jeremy Grantham warns US stock markets are in a "super bubble" that is set to crash, while Wall Street gave up strong early gains to finish in the red again overnight, with the ASX following.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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the other factor is the folks who should be investing ( more ) money ( like me ) are very cautious ( limiting buyer support )
 
divs4ever said:
the other factor is the folks who should be investing ( more ) money ( like me ) are very cautious ( limiting buyer support )
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i am cashed up too mate, will be looking to "buy the crash" when stocks goes down maybe to march 2020 covid lows? Nasdaq almost down 4% tonight now :D
 
bluekelah said:
i am cashed up too mate, will be looking to "buy the crash" when stocks goes down maybe to march 2020 covid lows? Nasdaq almost down 4% tonight now :D
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Rebounding now...a bit too early.not too late to unload. Sell the Top?
Let's see in the next couole of xeeks cash up in index put might even be better
 
That Red Sea on the Stock exchange is getting choppier by the hour.

160 points down and still going. And the war in the Ukraine hasn't even kicked off. I wonder if/when the quants start selling everything off ?
 
Came across a story which checks out where the trigger points for market instaility could lie. One point that caught my eye. Could be some real pressure from people who have speculated in crypto currency.

But a bigger plonk, though, is coming from the cryptic world of crypto-currency. The Washington Post over the weekend estimated digital tokens had “vaporised” $US1.4tn (almost A$2tn) in just two months as the ethereal market halved in value.

www.theguardian.com

Stock markets falling, investors getting nervous – is the debt-fuelled finance party over?

Some near-term nasties loom on the horizon, but larger threats are geopolitical and difficult to predict
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
wayneL said:
This ain't it. The drivers of a crash aren't there... yet... This is just a few nerves.

And in light of my opinion above, I advise you to sell everything LMAO.
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What's your crystal ball say about the drivers, Wayne? Fed miscalculation on rates, more Evergrandes in China, Russia or China miscalculation on Ukraine and Taiwan, a worse variant of Covid?
 
Admittedly U.S futures down from what I see but ASX is acting like an almost historic positive reversal last night didn't happen. Poor show I say.
 
am doing what i can , i just keep on missing the top shelf prizes SO FAR

( only added extra AIS and MND , so far , but 3 others are close to the target price )

and MIGHT consider raising my target on FMG Thursday/Friday ( to sub $19 )
 
Sean K said:
What's your crystal ball say about the drivers, Wayne? Fed miscalculation on rates, more Evergrandes in China, Russia or China miscalculation on Ukraine and Taiwan, a worse variant of Covid?
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I'm going along with the theory that the greatest driver of stock market atm is the debt market.

Disclaimer 1: I'm not an economist.

I think there are lots of *reasons why the stock markets in western country should be a hell of a lot lower than they are now, but the real driver is the debt market and central Banks.... I think the contention that the stock market, in aggregate, is it derivative of the debt market is pretty spot on, and I think the price action of the stock market has borne that out over recent years.

So I'm watching the debt market, and the American dollar (it being an instrument of debt)

Those factors that you mention are also derivative factors of the debt market, so yes an eye on those things as clues would be prudent.

To my way of thinking there are lots of chinks in the armour there, and perhaps a true crash is a lot closer than I think it is, but I don't think the federal reserve is done yet and the cantillon effect is still in play.

Disclaimer 2: I know nuffin'
 
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