Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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kid hustlr said:
I guess the question I'm asking is, why do you think your envelope strategy (which I'm reading as 1/4 gold, 1/4 US equities, 1/4 bonds, 1/4 cash) will perform strongly in the future?
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ahhh Jan 10, 2019. Seems so long ago...

XJO up 13.04% plus some dividends...
Gold in AUD up 25% minus some storage costs...
Australian Government Bonds 2047 maturity (longest on offer) up 23% plus some yield...
AUD down ~6% on the USD minus some interest rate differential...

and that's just the benchmark...

I had no idea if the strategy would perform strongly in the future and I still don't!
 
So many people saying to me over the last few years why I hold TWENTY FIVE PERCENT of my portfolio in cash!

Why, it doesn’t yield anything after inflation.

Welcome to March 2020, where even AAA rated long duration government debt is going down as people sell whatever’s liquid to meet redemptions and margin calls.

Unless you’re short or long vol, cash is the only thing not going down today.

Everyone’s freaking out, I’m looking for rebals. Another great day for it.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
Welcome to March 2020, where even AAA rated long duration government debt is going down as people sell whatever’s liquid to meet redemptions and margin calls.
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Article on the AFR about why Aus Gov Bonds traded down hard this week:

https://www.afr.com/companies/finan...-8-8-billion-into-repo-market-20200313-p549t6

Foreign hedge funds dumped Australian government bonds and the RBA is pumping billions into short-term bank funding to ease a breakdown in global credit markets.
...

Local bond market sources reported heavy selling pressure, an evaporation of liquidity and upward pressure on yields in global government borrowing markets, including the US and Australia.

"There are alarming liquidity signals and it's very dark out there at the moment," a bond market source said.
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Also

both h/r @MillennialMacro on twitter https://twitter.com/millennialmacro
 
Too early to sell some 8,100 Feb, Mar, Apr calls is it ? Or buy some 7,000 similar dated puts ?

Gunnerguy.
 
Gunnerguy said:
Too early to sell some 8,100 Feb, Mar, Apr calls is it ? Or buy some 7,000 similar dated puts ?

Gunnerguy.
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I am at this moment working on getting myself long volatility. there are several facets to this (re other Greeks) and I am just trying to work through how to do this for best advantage.
 
wayneL said:
I don't think it's imminent, perhaps not even soon. but I predict this thread will become active sometime in 2022.
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i have been wrong many times before , but i think the XJO will find support around 7000 points before a rise going towards Xmas

BUT the market is less certain on direction ( either way ) currently , i notice WOW , COL , EDV and MTS gained today was there a trend towards 'safe-havens ' , i would have thought the banks would have attracted more interest as the end of the year approached , but maybe i am just early on that


you might have to wait a bit , but having another look at 'your ride the dip' plans might prove beneficial

i am told there was a broader sell-off of today with a few ( mostly gold miners ) shining bright ( and the food retailers as well )

tech stocks seem to be lacking support currently .. so are we looking at a move to 'risk-off ' albeit it subtle and with some discipline ( not a general panic )

i notice this thread barely got a post in March 2020 ( i hope Investoboy made a motza as a reward for his patience )

good luck everyone

it could get exciting even in the week after Xmas ( if the fundies go on holidays )
 
divs4ever said:
i have been wrong many times before , but i think the XJO will find support around 7000 points before a rise going towards Xmas

BUT the market is less certain on direction ( either way ) currently , i notice WOW , COL , EDV and MTS gained today was there a trend towards 'safe-havens ' , i would have thought the banks would have attracted more interest as the end of the year approached , but maybe i am just early on that


you might have to wait a bit , but having another look at 'your ride the dip' plans might prove beneficial

i am told there was a broader sell-off of today with a few ( mostly gold miners ) shining bright ( and the food retailers as well )

tech stocks seem to be lacking support currently .. so are we looking at a move to 'risk-off ' albeit it subtle and with some discipline ( not a general panic )

i notice this thread barely got a post in March 2020 ( i hope Investoboy made a motza as a reward for his patience )

good luck everyone

it could get exciting even in the week after Xmas ( if the fundies go on holidays )
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My concern is that stock market... Well probably even all markets outside of cryptos, are no longer true price discovery mechanisms.

Both governments and central Banks have been messing with both the bond and stock markets for a long time now, and I think everybody in the world now knows that JP Morgan have been manipulating the precious metals markets forever.

The great question in my mind is, when do they lose control of everything, if ever?

Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos.

However I totally believe that the debt market has passed a critical mass and all it needs is for one well-placed proton (or neutron? I can't remember) to blow everything the @#£& up.

History shows that this is the inevitable course of events.

Maybe it is a case of a stopped watch being correct twice a day, but the predictors of these financial clusterf@#£s are never wrong, it is only a question of the timing.

Disclaimer: I always call these things too damned early.
 
wayneL said:
My concern is that stock market... Well probably even all markets outside of cryptos, are no longer true price discovery mechanisms.

Both governments and central Banks have been messing with both the bond and stock markets for a long time now, and I think everybody in the world now knows that JP Morgan have been manipulating the precious metals markets forever.

The great question in my mind is, when do they lose control of everything, if ever?

Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos.

However I totally believe that the debt market has passed a critical mass and all it needs is for one well-placed proton (or neutron? I can't remember) to blow everything the @#£& up.

History shows that this is the inevitable course of events.

Maybe it is a case of a stopped watch being correct twice a day, but the predictors of these financial clusterf@#£s are never wrong, it is only a question of the timing.

Disclaimer: I always call these things too damned early.
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** My concern is that stock market... Well probably even all markets outside of cryptos, are no longer true price discovery mechanisms. **
yes i share those concerns , cryptos will be worth WATCHING to see how virtual novices will react to widespread panic ( and how many chose to resist leverage and debt elsewhere

BUT that is the game we have , and the minefield we are playing on

*** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***

am not convinced the crypto markets are devoid of rigging , but such rigging MIGHT be less than elsewhere in 'liquid assets '

*** However I totally believe that the debt market has passed a critical mass ***

i believe that happened in September 2019 , however those claiming that happened in the GFC have a strong argument as well ( IMO )

you assume there will be some trust left in the system ( and currencies ) when the dust settles , i am not so sure of that

i was surprised when the ' bond yield curve inversion ' flag seemed to fail this time ( or maybe it did work and we have all been distracted since )

are we wrong , or dancing on air and unaware of it , accurate information is hard to find recently

early is NOT a bad thing provided you don't over-commit to that direction ( leave some tweaking room )

for example i have been tilting towards 'safe-havens ' for over 8 years this year the M&A activity has taken out many of those 'safe-havens ' leaving me with profits ( cash ) probably right at the best time to have spare cash to invest ( if there is a true melt-down this time )

but the future is not written yet
 
*** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***

but where else could we go to resist underlying inflation

the share market has been called TINA ( There Is No Alternative ) BEFORE March 2020 by savvy fund managers

maybe we were just bad people for not believing the official inflation rates , but the other choice was having our nest eggs starved by official inflation ( sitting in bonds and TDs paying pitiful returns )
 
Yes it’s tricky, however it dependon your ‘life stage’.
Are you <30 = years to recover, many cycles, let’s buy another TV and watch the BBL.
Are you >55 = ‘all I need is 5% a year for the next 30 years and I’m fine’, and the kids get a healthy inheritance.
Are you >75, sorry can’t compute.
I’m obviously the second category.
No judgement but what I’ve done is .... 3 years wealth in cash/FI = 20% of wealth, 30% property, 50% shares.Thus if there’s a 30%-50% I have cash that I’m happy to DCA in.
Who knows. So many people giving advise in the media, fund managers etc. crash is coming, Fed printing money to the moon, can’t raise interest rates,
From my standpoint, I’ve worked hard for 30 years, I’ve achieved what I have, and it’s good, it’s successful, it’s solid. I am not going FOMO now. I don’t want to blow it all and f@@k up what I have worked hard for my family.
A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush.
For >50’s I would recommend safety, insurance and perspective if you have a decent bag of ‘cash’.
Don’t screw up what you have, and don’t be greedy !!!!
Gunnerguy.
 
divs4ever said:
*** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***

but where else could we go to resist underlying inflation

the share market has been called TINA ( There Is No Alternative ) BEFORE March 2020 by savvy fund managers

maybe we were just bad people for not believing the official inflation rates , but the other choice was having our nest eggs starved by official inflation ( sitting in bonds and TDs paying pitiful returns )
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Great points.

We should trade to what IS and not what we think it should be. I think that some sort of at least rudimentary understanding of macro economics might help here.... And an understanding of the function of Central Banks and how they operate in practice.

That's actually pretty hard for we plebeians, and I thank those podcasts I listen to for helping me here.
divs4ever said:
*** Both institutions and retail traders have been willing accomplices in these rigged markets, and hence why so many libertarian wildcats have gone into cryptos. ***

but where else could we go to resist underlying inflation

the share market has been called TINA ( There Is No Alternative ) BEFORE March 2020 by savvy fund managers

maybe we were just bad people for not believing the official inflation rates , but the other choice was having our nest eggs starved by official inflation ( sitting in bonds and TDs paying pitiful returns )
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This is what I mean by "willing accomplices".

It is our job to trade what *is, not what we think it should be.

**Checks notes, should follow my own advice :p
 
** Don’t screw up what you have, and don’t be greedy !!!! **

yep that is basically my plan ( although i need to be a little bit greedy , but NOT screw up what i have )

sadly i am closer to the ' can't compute ' group

** I think that some sort of at least rudimentary understanding of macro economics might help here.... And an understanding of the function of Central Banks and how they operate in practice. **

i did that and have a BAD headache , something about macro economics collided with MMT when propelled by Central Banks

** That's actually pretty hard for we plebeians, and I thank those podcasts I listen to for helping me here. **

i absolutely agree there ( even if You-Tube banned half the confronting theories , for daring us to think )
 
ASX200’s 7650 will be a hurdle to cross.
EOY I don’t think ASX200 will be much over 7700.
I STO quite a few DEC and JAN calls above 7700.
Gunnerguy
 
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