Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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a new ( XJO ) record before Xmas ... maybe

we still have some bank div. cash that needs a home , the general trend to buy a few extra shares before the New Year ( by the retail folk and super fund managers )

so there is usually SOME pressure for the market to rise

i normally start cherry-picking illiquid stocks in this period ( until the beginning of February )

but anything seems to be able to happen in the current climate

( PS there is still some M&A cash that needs a new home as well )

BTW i am still super-cautious , but piles of cash in the bank is not so useful either
 
The Santa Claus rally phenomenon is quite clearly in play.

As I said above I don't believe any market tanking is imminent or even soon... And as I also said I always call things way too early.

But one thing of note is that insiders are selling at record levels and it seems that retail investors are the buyer's.

Standard contrarian theory says that we are at, or near a top. There are many reasons why the top isn't *now*, but I am sticking to my thesis that at some point in 2022 the poop will hit the propeller.

Which probably means it won't be till 2023 or later ;)
 
YoooTooob is now replete with stock market crash warnings... (Which is actually probably a buy signal)

A perusal of the federal reserve's balance sheet shows that the so-called taper is largely bulshit, they are clearly not done buying up assets at this stage.

I am still sticking to my thesis that this thread will become very active at some point in 2022. Is it now or in the first part of the new year?

I doubt it (which is probably a sell signal).

In fact I believe they will probably try to kick the can down the road at least until the US mid terms have come and gone.... Possibly.

After that I think it is game on, gents and gentesses.
 
i can't believe they have managed to kick the can as long as they have

i suspect proportionately there are more retail investors in the market ( the big fund managers and instos have gone on holidays )

and they ( retail folk ) tend to focus more on long term gains/income

i think the days of Y-T videos causing panic-selling among the novices are fading into history ( that does NOT mean abandoning a cash reserve , and market meltdown plan , but keep it close and ready , not the only strategy )

since i have been investing .. 'buy the dip ' seems to have completely replaced 'averaging down ' , but does 'buy the dip' come with 'quick hands ' ( short term holds ) or diamond hands ( hold for much longer )

now one ' horror scenario ' is a complete loss confidence ( market , currency , Central Bank , etc etc ) so how does that play out ( i don't know but guess it will be BAD )
 
wayneL said:
YoooTooob is now replete with stock market crash warnings... (Which is actually probably a buy signal)
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Yes, watched a couple of those today. Mostly in the PM analysis space. It looks like it's rolling over but does there need to be a blow off top and crash situation? Could it be a boring old 20% gentle slide down in 2022 and valuations revert to long term mean?
 
divs4ever said:
i can't believe they have managed to kick the can as long as they have

i suspect proportionately there are more retail investors in the market ( the big fund managers and instos have gone on holidays )

and they ( retail folk ) tend to focus more on long term gains/income

i think the days of Y-T videos causing panic-selling among the novices are fading into history ( that does NOT mean abandoning a cash reserve , and market meltdown plan , but keep it close and ready , not the only strategy )

since i have been investing .. 'buy the dip ' seems to have completely replaced 'averaging down ' , but does 'buy the dip' come with 'quick hands ' ( short term holds ) or diamond hands ( hold for much longer )

now one ' horror scenario ' is a complete loss confidence ( market , currency , Central Bank , etc etc ) so how does that play out ( i don't know but guess it will be BAD )
Click to expand...
Insiders are selling in big numbers, which supports your point that it is probably retail investors doing all the buying atm.
 
are they selling , or have they sold recently , when i first started ( investing ) i sometimes got tricked by notices that described movements , days or even weeks before

but it is a shortened trading week ( Friday SHOULD close early ) , i bet the smartest traders have their feet up relaxing ( so they keep in the sweetest tax-bracket )
 
Please also note that the market will close early on Friday, 24 December 2021 and Friday, 31 December 2021 at 2.10pm (Sydney time). For ETOs, the market will close at 2.20pm (Sydney time) for equity options, and at 2.30pm (Sydney time) for index options, on both of these days.
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Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, bonds are selling off a bit.

It's not a "the ASX is it officially tanking" moment yet, but I must say I have the hairs standing up on the back of my neck at the moment.
 
wayneL said:
Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, bonds are selling off a bit.
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yes they are.
wayneL said:
It's not a "the ASX is it officially tanking" moment yet, but I must say I have the hairs standing up on the back of my neck at the moment.
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officially it is an "officially "the ASX is tanking" panic" thread; to date, far too orderly and the buyers of the dips are still there.

Ah, liquidity, ah depth ! O tempora, o mores .
 
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Dona Ferentes said:
yes they are.

officially it is an "officially "the ASX is tanking" panic" thread; to date, far too orderly and the buyers of the dips are still there.

Ah, liquidity, ah depth ! O tempora, o mores .
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Indeed no panic.... yet. And ID expect Central Banks to come rising to the rescue in this instance.

But I am noticing some twitching and nervous ticks among certain participants.

The stock market is a derivative of the bond market *in aggregate*, so I am keeping my eye firmly on that.
 
wayneL said:
Just bumping this... we are less than 10% from the high, but, despite no signs from CBs of a fair dinkum taper, bonds are selling off.
Click to expand...
From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre."

Clinton political adviser James Carville said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."

And where are we, now?
The yield on the US 10-year note was down 3 basis points to 1.83 per cent in midday trading in New York. The yield has surged 32 basis points higher so far this month.
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Dona Ferentes said:
From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre."

Clinton political adviser James Carville said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."

And where are we, now?
Click to expand...
We are in a much more rate-sensitive environment than then. IMO

As a thought experiment let's wonder what the reaction may be to say, 10 year bond yields at 3%... or 4%?
 
Plenty of money has been flowing in this year, it's only natural most of the recently popped darlings blow off steam, profit taking.

Things are only down as much as they are up on a good day...?

I do wonder, how many people read the thread title and start panic selling? ?
 
frugal.rock said:
Plenty of money has been flowing in this year, it's only natural most of the recently popped darlings blow off steam, profit taking.

Things are only down as much as they are up on a good day...?

I do wonder, how many people read the thread title and start panic selling? ?
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I did say when I started bumping this thread that I don't expect a panic sell off anytime soon, only that I do believe at some point it will come... Maybe sometime this year, maybe next.

Vis a vis, there is no indication that the easy money is stopping.

But, the bond market is a beast when it gets the sh¹ts, and it is showing signs of getting a bit grumpy.
 
wayneL said:
I did say when I started bumping this thread that I don't expect a panic sell off anytime soon, only that I do believe at some point it will come... Maybe sometime this year, maybe next.

Vis a vis, there is no indication that the easy money is stopping.

But, the bond market is a beast when it gets the sh¹ts, and it is showing signs of getting a bit grumpy.
Click to expand...

Breaking this support level, I'd saddle up at least one of those four horses Wayne.
 
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