Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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I'm not sure if the ASX will 'tank', yet I a global pull back seems likely / which will draw the ASX to follow.

A chart I like to follow, although I'm sure it will hold of little value for most, the CAPE index seems to offer some insight as to whether US equities are over bought.

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We're currently above GFC levels and approaching dot com level's.

Hopefully some buying opportunity present if the ASX does 'tank'.

VIX hasn't seen any volatility for some time now, maybe this 'trade war'will kick things off?
 
notting said:
I was trying to figure out what Mr Radge was up to by cutting back on his longer term trending system.
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What do you mean by this?

I follow Radge and am not aware of this.

He has allocated more to his US strategies as that is moving along at a greater pace than asx.
 
Whoops. i think I miss interpreted this tweet it!!

"Good example of high beta investing. #ASX closed +0.81% higher. Main #ASX trend system (Growth Portfolio) added +1.57% yet is only 55% invested. That's how it rolls when you start with the strongest names."

I took it to mean they had been reducing positions which is not correct.
 
Given the markets positive moves after Trumps whirlwind tour success of Europe indicate that people were more concerned about a trade war with Europe or NATO bust up than a trade war with China.
Hmmm.... then he gets home and slams more tarrifs on em all and the most highly hyped and anticipated reporting season in the history of the universe comes to an end. With it't tax boosts.
Then what? AAAAAAhhhhhhhhhhh......

c'mon it's been ten years.
I have to be right in this thread at some point!
 
That's a big long run-up in McGrath's CAPE index chart in post #2781 above, who says: "..We're currently above GFC levels and approaching dot com level's."

Bears are poised I'd have thought, as the down side risk is building. All this 'Trade War' rhetoric isn't helping either. TA indicators are well extended.
 
Oh Jesus, No No Nooo

Trump says the Federal Reserve has 'gone crazy':roflmao:




It's time to pardon Cosby and put him in charge, he has the credentials I can only dream about added the Donald .....

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Quite a drop over night, spectacular. Haven't seen a daily candle like that in a while....
 
notting said:
Oh Jesus, No No Nooo

Trump says the Federal Reserve has 'gone crazy':roflmao:
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This was only a matter of time before he got stuck into the Fed.....Trump's taking credit for a strong economy is all based on super low interest rates. With rates anywhere near normal, his slashing of taxes & growing budget deficits will be exposed as completely unsustainable.
 
I am happy to see Amazon getting waked. This is my all time stoke of hatred.
An expert was predicting it would go to 3000 in a year or two.
One theory doing the rounds in my head at the moment is that there has been a bit of a recovery in brick and morter retail in the US, all be it mixed. But what is compelling is how Amazon has been investing in that sector!!!

So is this the great rotation out of digital back into real world stocks?
They call it from growth into value from dreaming to reality.

But it seems Amazon is pretty much stumped as to where to go from here with digital expansion to justify its PE of 170. So it's using it's perceived value to try to buy things that do have some real value.
Amazing how so many fans of Amazon say how great it is whilst at the same time saying, ' It is, however, very hard to value !!! WTF'.. No it isn't. It's massively overvalued and these dicks just don't want to normalise that because it means it's going to pop and they are idiots caught up in the hyperbole.
Tech is popping.
 
notting said:
I am happy to see Amazon getting waked. This is my all time stoke of hatred.
An expert was predicting it would go to 3000 in a year or two.
One theory doing the rounds in my head at the moment is that there has been a bit of a recovery in brick and morter retail in the US, all be it mixed. But what is compelling is how Amazon has been investing in that sector!!!

So is this the great rotation out of digital back into real world stocks?
They call it from growth into value from dreaming to reality.

But it seems Amazon is pretty much stumped as to where to go from here with digital expansion to justify its PE of 170. So it's using it's perceived value to try to buy things that do have some real value.
Amazing how so many fans of Amazon say how great it is whilst at the same time saying, ' It is, however, very hard to value !!! WTF'.. No it isn't. It's massively overvalued and these dicks just don't want to normalise that because it means it's going to pop and they are idiots caught up in the hyperbole.
Tech is popping.
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It's "whacked". And also "albeit" not "all be it" :D
 
notting said:
I still get their there wrong nearly every time, even though I know! There is no hope!
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I shouldn't be one to talk but yea.

My 8 year old daughter is no longer impressed with my reading. She find my version of "Fox in Socks" too slow and too boring. The 6 year old still reckon it's pretty awesome though. :D
 
PZ99 said:
Presumably WTF stands for Where's The Finance ? :D
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Actually WTF stands for "where is the fun ... in worrying about debt!" Greatest President ever! Sad. Lucky for us Josh has found the dosh to bring forward the tax cuts.
 
IMHO, anyone who can read a chart will be defensively placed in regard to US stocks. Inevitably a US downturm flows on to the XAO in some way, safe haven status or not.
If this weeks article from Marketwatch is a little extreme, I think it does signal the need for caution.
Opinion: The [US] stock market is overdue for a one-day 5% or 10% plunge
Published: 18 Oct 2018:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...erdue-for-a-one-day-5-or-10-plunge-2018-10-18
Friday is the anniversary of the 1987 stock-market crash, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22.6%
.. The Dow Jones Industrial Average could drop more than 5,700 points in Friday’s trading session.
Impossible, you say?
Think again. On Oct. 19, 1987 — 31 years ago today — the Dow DJIA, -1.27% plunged 22.6%. It was the worst stock-market crash in U.S. history. An equivalent percentage drop today would cause the Dow to skid more than 5,700 points.
To be sure, just because the stock market could suffer a similar fate doesn’t mean it is likely. But most investors don’t even acknowledge that it’s possible.
They’re kidding themselves ...
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