Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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The bubble looks to have popped.
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Perhaps the Dow will pullback to the 61.8% Fib level around where the 200 weekly moving average currently is. Looking at the 1H chart, head and shoulders stands out, we might see further falls on Monday.

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Buying the dips might not be the best trading strategy here. Tight, limited, small sized, high frequency trades into the lengthy candlesticks is the way I will look at playing this. Example below, although these trades were on the Jap225
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Porper said:
I believe the 200 day moving average is almost irrelevant used on our markets. Much more significant on U.S markets...to a large extent a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Chartist also said an excellent buying opportunity around 5000. A multi-year trend higher likely from there.
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Yep, Nick is certainly bullish LT.
It's looking like a bit more down side pain in the first half of 2018 before a nice buying op.
 
MFG down nearly 8%
PTM down nearly 9%
Gold stocks rocketing up.
Somethings happening man
Help Help ....................

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:D
 
I'm more serious than you think.
So many stocks are rolling over and it's been covered up by the recent strength in the banks.

It's no coincidence.

Stock market selloffs, volatility blow-ups, collapsing crypto currencies. They're all the symptoms of an unfolding global credit squeeze, according to famed HSBC Holdings bond guru Steven Major. It just happens to be developing at a snail's pace.

Major and his team see what they call a "long list" of selloffs in risk markets across the world as evidence of the disruption wrought by tighter dollar liquidity. In response they've slashed their forecast for returns on German government bonds, turned more bearish on credit and become even more cautious on emerging-market debt.

"Market participants are typically looking for validation of a forecast from cyclical data or one-off events but the reality can be different," the bank's global head of fixed-income research wrote in a note on Wednesday. "We appear to be in the midst of a slow-motion credit crunch."

And with respect to banking stuff. GMA and MOC have been smashed just recently.
Unless of course everyone is selling everything to buy the banks.:D
 
notting said:
I'm more serious than you think.
So many stocks are rolling over and it's been covered up by the recent strength in the banks.

It's no coincidence.

Stock market selloffs, volatility blow-ups, collapsing crypto currencies. They're all the symptoms of an unfolding global credit squeeze, according to famed HSBC Holdings bond guru Steven Major. It just happens to be developing at a snail's pace.

Major and his team see what they call a "long list" of selloffs in risk markets across the world as evidence of the disruption wrought by tighter dollar liquidity. In response they've slashed their forecast for returns on German government bonds, turned more bearish on credit and become even more cautious on emerging-market debt.

"Market participants are typically looking for validation of a forecast from cyclical data or one-off events but the reality can be different," the bank's global head of fixed-income research wrote in a note on Wednesday. "We appear to be in the midst of a slow-motion credit crunch."

And with respect to banking stuff. GMA and MOC have been smashed just recently.
Unless of course everyone is selling everything to buy the banks.:D
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The ASX Forward PE ratio as at 30 June was 15.7 (See page 35, Guide to the Markets, Australia, 3Q 2018, J.P. Morgan) This is close to being within 1 standard deviation (15.8) from the long term average (14.2) for the ASX. In other words, the ASX forward PE ratio is at the top of its normal range (and has been for some time). So any change in sentiment towards risk-off and any adverse outlook for global growth (including risks to global trade) could result in a price correction or volatile sideways movement for some time.

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The bottom right panel really concerns me. I don't have the data & experience to infer if this is going to lead to a turn in the market but I will simply say that we have the market pushing higher with the breadth not supporting the push. This suggests there are less and less stocks participating in the push higher.

The stock market rotates through sectors from what I have seen so this could just be a blip on the radar but it's worth watching. Ever since the end of March lows breadth has rolled over.

Also interesting to see the spike in the 52 week highs several weeks back - could be a considered a blow off top?
 
I'm keeping it light on the shares side, have a few shorts as hedges. As an econ grad this tariff thing is shitting me. If the China/US ones go through it will disrupt global supply chains and **** up the economic momentum we started to get. The trader in me will follow price, we're chopping around above support both here and in the US.

The game is wait and see tbh.
 
The market of course is going to go up as trade war tensions ease. Trade war is just noise. It's nothing but attention grabbing negotiation tactics.
 
gaius said:
The market of course is going to go up as trade war tensions ease. Trade war is just noise. It's nothing but attention grabbing negotiation tactics.
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Trade war is a tax on consumers. Consumers are already leveraged to their eyeballs.

With rising fuel, food, energy... now these tariffs that will raise prices and/or cut more jobs. I'm seriously beginning to think that Trump and his admin are either shorting the stock market or want to restart the world with a clean nuclear-contaminated slate.
 
Trade war starts tomorrow.

For the sake of humanity the US should wipe the fuck3rs off the face of the earth.
I'm with Trump on this one. China is 98% of all the plastic in the ocean the sh8t you've been getting in your email for the last 30 years, the shocking pollution(there are others on the carbon too)
To save humanity only an extreme measure is going to get rid of the psychopath nation. The lying cheats, thieves, murderers, torturers, invaders and illegal occupiers. Pretending Trump is the bully on this or China calling any one a bully is a total joke.
I can't show you what they do to 100s of millions of animals it will break your heart here's how they treat a peaceful, unarmed, aggressiveness in any way - monk. The cowards need a gang to feels safe enough to beat to a pulp a monks who doesn't fight back in the slightest. Cowards.


DhVP-quWAAIorna.jpg
 
notting said:
Trade war starts tomorrow.

For the sake of humanity the US should wipe the fuck3rs off the face of the earth.
I'm with Trump on this one. China is 98% of all the plastic in the ocean the sh8t you've been getting in your email for the last 30 years, the shocking pollution(there are others on the carbon too)
To save humanity only an extreme measure is going to get rid of the psychopath nation. The lying cheats, thieves, murderers, torturers, invaders and illegal occupiers. Pretending Trump is the bully on this or China calling any one a bully is a total joke.
I can't show you what they do to 100s of millions of animals it will break your heart here's how they treat a peaceful, unarmed, aggressiveness in any way - monk. The cowards need a gang to feels safe enough to beat to a pulp a monks who doesn't fight back in the slightest. Cowards.


DhVP-quWAAIorna.jpg
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I think that's a mock-beating. In front of the UN building in NY.

But yea, those commies are brutal.

Though Trump aren't doing this for human rights, freedom and all that either. Neither are any country/trading partners really. The mighty Yuan ey.
 
Yeah I think so. The real stuff is so much more horrible.

This is what a real bully looks like not so much like The Donald!! -

made in China.jpg
 
I wouldn't know an Eliot wave if I was dumped by one.
But as a weekly chart would this be the end of the 5 wave thing.
Or can that 5th wave extend for a lot more?

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notting said:
I wouldn't know an Eliot wave if I was dumped by one.
But as a weekly chart would this be the end of the 5 wave thing.
Or can that 5th wave extend for a lot more?

View attachment 88321
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That's pretty clear notting.
Why stuff around with something that isn't remotely accurate?
Let alone trying to fit something to a chart?
 
Thanks Quacks.
I was trying to figure out what Mr Radge was up to by cutting back on his longer term trending system.
I don't know what is clear or isn't about it other than the wave count and thought this might be part of his modeling as the recent highs would have made me think he'd be all in.
There maybe some momentum thing falling off as well, not sure myself.
 
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notting said:
I wouldn't know an Eliot wave if I was dumped by one.
But as a weekly chart would this be the end of the 5 wave thing.
Or can that 5th wave extend for a lot more?

View attachment 88321
Click to expand...
It isn't a 5-wave move notting as you have wave-4 overlapping wave-1. Not allowed. I'll post a chart up with my interpretation when time.
 
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