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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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The global bond market has more than tripled in size in the past 15 years and now exceeds $100 trillion.
By contrast, the value of the global stock market is around $64 trillion.

The global bond market has never, in the history of the human race, been so bloated as it was before last Fridays sell off.

If that is not the greatest bubble in history, then there is no such thing as a bubble!

It's highly unusual for stocks and bonds to take a big hit on the same day.
There is usually a rotation from one into the other. :1zhelp:

Just thought I'd mention this. :D
 
Yeah, this is noteworthy I reckon, we we need to see how it unfolds....where is the scared money going to go?
 
CanOz said:
Yeah, this is noteworthy I reckon, we we need to see how it unfolds....where is the scared money going to go?
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Just about every stock is down.

ASX 200 - 5 stocks went up, 192 went down, rest unchanged

Dow - All 30 stocks down

S&P 500 - 11 stocks went up, 494 stocks went down (there aren't exactly 500 stocks in the index it seems?)

DAX - 1 up, 29 down

Hang Seng - all 50 went down

Gold was up a trivial amount in AUD but silver was down.

USD went up relative to AUD (or you could say the AUD fell relative to USD) and that's probably the most significant thing I see at this point.:2twocents
 
CanOz said:
Yeah, this is noteworthy I reckon, we we need to see how it unfolds....where is the scared money going to go?
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Mine went more short gold Friday on slower ones to move down TRY, SLR and OGC which is still slow to behave! (due to rates rise perception) and resources (including mining services) and some financials today.
REITs in mind if there is a rotation from dividend stocks.
Looking at the REITs reminded me that in the real world, we need about 10 qtr rate rises before we get in front of out banks and reits!! 2.5 years maybe? :cool:
Hardly too much competition at this point! But hey, market has no brain.
 
notting said:
Mine went more short gold Friday on slower ones to move down TRY, SLR and OGC which is still slow to behave! (due to rates rise perception) and resources (including mining services) and some financials today.
REITs in mind if there is a rotation from dividend stocks.
Looking at the REITs reminded me that in the real world, we need about 10 qtr rate rises before we get in front of out banks and reits!! 2.5 years maybe? :cool:
Hardly too much competition at this point! But hey, market has no brain.
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Notting,
more short gold or more long gold for your scared money?
What you wrote above means you believe gold will go down as people get scared which is not exactly common thinking?
I do not say it may not happen as it is hard to believe there is much sense in the financial market with negative interest, bond bubble, etc etc and an economy which will not handle any rate rise
 
I've called the economists and politicians blind obecience to the cult of growth a pyramid system destined for the inevitable from day 1.
The day is getting closer. I will say it again.
'you cannot grow for ever in a finite world.'
Welcome to reality

[video]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000550709[/video]
 
Reasons you might want to take profits yesterday.:D
  1. Trumps horrible health care plan is not sailing through the senate like King Salman's yacht into Ibiza for some paid love. Therefor all Trumps other grand plans for spending will not be so easy either. Like clocking up the debt to levels of utter insanity.
  2. The debt in the US is already at insane levels and if interest rates rise, how are they even going to manage where it is let alone where Trump would take it. The bond markets are already in the biggest bubble in the history of the universe.
  3. BREXIT is actually happening NOW. What was most feared about BREXIT is actually happening e.g. - Goldman Sachs is halving its London workforce to 3,000 and moving key operations to New York and continental Europe, particularly Frankfurt, where it could move up to 1,000 staff. The Scotts are not making it any prettier either. London is the Europe's Financial capital. If Goldman is going they will all most likely go to a fair degree.
  4. The retailers in bricks and mortar retail are still being destroyed due to online shopping. If Trump brings in protectionist taxes, buying stuff will get a lot more expensive, people will slow down on it, a recession in the consumer driven USA is likely and also a more obvious trade war backlash against what China has been doing for about 30 years.
  5. People are losing confidence in the oil price recovery which could cause all kinds of sovereign disruptions as some countries like Russia and Venezuela start to struggle with debt too.
  6. We have had an 8 year bull market, complacency is everywhere and the ridiculous Trump love in on Wall street has finally ended with the empty bottles of cool Aid all over the tables. Old Cheeto face is starting to look a little pale and you know what happens to the celebrity president when people tire of the novelty, remembering the royal wedding and Lady Die.
  7. Not to mention a Trump impeachment over Russia or any number of other things that will come to be known.
 
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I think we're about to go under, too much debt in housing etc etc
I've got over the statutory guarantee limit in cash at the Bank of Melbourne but I'm thinking I should start thinking about gold.
If I buy gold stocks will they just go down with the rest of the market ?
Not keen on physical gold...
Where's the best place to invest in gold ? any suggestions ?
 
Gold and shorting financials is where I'm finding myself.
RIETS next in line when people realize nothing is safe, especially the Ausi housing market as Government and Reserve Bank governors are falling over themselves to find a way of bringing it to heal. Let alone simple fundamentals
 
Selling Gold now.
Why? Given it seems risk aversion may be turning back on?
The Trump Xi dinner date of the century will probably not end with coffee in Trump tower but nor will it end with Trump being thrown out the window.
Fizzle, nothing.
Gold has run up on the threat of an all out trade war. Not going to happen. China has been firing all cannons in a trade war for about 50 years whilst the rest of the world did nothing.

But mainly If the Fed is going to start hoovering up the easy money that is not a good thing for the gold price.
If things get hairy gold could still perform but downside risk is a little strong to be holding especially as risk off tends to strengthen US$ too, so a few too many things sitting on top of the gold price right here to stay long.
 
notting said:
ownside risk is a little strong to be holding especially as risk off tends to strengthen US$ too,
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isn't it a big conflicting:
USD goes up but gold go down does not mean an Aussie would not be better off sticking to gold (as gold price is expressed in USD)
USD up 10%, gold down 10% in usd and I end up even
 
qldfrog said:
isn't it a big conflicting:
USD goes up but gold go down does not mean an Aussie would not be better off sticking to gold (as gold price is expressed in USD)
USD up 10%, gold down 10% in usd and I end up even
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Yes... but you will find that Aussie gold stocks have much strong correlation to US gold price than $AUD gold price.
 
OK I have rung the bell a few times but this time I think we could get back some volatility.
The US and international markets have largely been profoundly calm and boring.
Central banks are looking to bite, overvaluations are being called.
Surely we get some now!
I sold a lot today.
(Last time I called it the market was at this 5750 level and we bounced but are back here again, and bounced again today. Yet The S&P kept going and is still close to record highs. It had it's biggest fall for while last night and finished on it's lows along with all the central bank hawkishness and death for nations who depend on oil to live, the 10 year bull gotta be getting a bit sick!)
 
Same can be said for property people ave been calling "bubble" for years but it keeps going up, when it goes down it will be catastrophic , spread your money between banks as I don't think they will be immune.
 
They have done plenty of rule changes that should make investors in property portfolios think twice.
Apartment blocks will be where the opportunities come from, not so much house and land.
Banks should come off in a general sell down but are still paying good dividends and have government backing so If you can hold out then you don't need to worry too much about actually bankruptcies there.

What should really be troubling is that the Trump agenda is not going to do what the market is pricing it to do. IMF just downgraded growth in US and Trump and US markets have bet everything on 3% growth minimum to cover debt ceiling and government spending that bet is going to LOSE.
 
Rates here are too low and thousands have multiple properties on interest only loans, they will be first out the door when it becomes clear rates are rising and capital gains are finished, that will bring the market down as a whole...it's like watching grass grow but the process is underway right now.
 
notting said:
What should really be troubling is that the Trump agenda is not going to do what the market is pricing it to do. IMF just downgraded growth in US and Trump and US markets have bet everything on 3% growth minimum to cover debt ceiling and government spending that bet is going to LOSE.
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Stocks in the third stage of a bull market.

Stocks highly valued on any normally used measure.

Fed raising interest rates and says they'll continue to do so.

Lots of things at extremes in the financial world.

Various divergences starting to appear.

Market breadth isn't terrible but a small number of big caps have accounted for a very disproportionate share of recent gains in the US.

Credit growth, car sales and so on starting to roll over.

The only thing I can think of that's normally seen around the time of a major market top but which is absent at the moment is a surge in oil prices.

It's not rocket science to predict what's coming although as always getting the timing right is the hard bit.
 
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