Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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At least it's not Friday so we can all have a full weekend to remain in confusion and dismay to really set it in!
Oh it is.
I'm hearing these level headed journalists keeping the talk cool wit,h and I quote, "Air raid sirens are going off, traders unable to eat their pizzas. Colossal. Orders have been coming in all night to dump portfolios"
 
They say volatility increases just before a turn.

Monthly S&P500

S&P500 volitility.JPG

FTSE only down by 4% making it still just positive for the week. :cool:
 
If you got freaked out and trapped long by the BREXIT decision, the door is now open if you want to run through it cheaply!!
 
notting said:
If you got freaked out and trapped long by the BREXIT decision, the door is now open if you want to run through it cheaply!!
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I'm a little stunned at the strength of this rally, every indice....so strong...
 
CanOz said:
I'm a little stunned at the strength of this rally, every indice....so strong...
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End of month re-balancing combined with short squeez and Central banks all opening up their wallets.
It's a madhouse. Bonds yielding zip. :microwave
 
was watching ABC morning show (AUS version) yesterday I think, and had a guy on talking about the markets and "they" were reckoning the market would end year around 4800 (will assume calendar year). if there is a link I can post it.

My own view re Brexit was that it was a shock decision and every commentator throwing in their 2c worth about the effects. And the not knowing about the real effects of such a decision resulted in the sky is falling mentality. What has really changed? People still shop, invest, build, etc. The market will be volatile, but somehow now it is a changing world, and maybe the rules are changing.

(These are my personal views and not advice)
 
notting said:
End of month re-balancing combined with short squeez and Central banks all opening up their wallets.
It's a madhouse. Bonds yielding zip. :microwave
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Yeah i think i underestimated the short covering potential and the end of month timing. I still can't imagine what the CB's can practically do. Even Carney said their effect would be limited.

If the SPI get over 5250 then the Brexit GAP will be challenged.:2twocents
 
smallwolf said:
was watching ABC morning show (AUS version) yesterday I think, and had a guy on talking about the markets and "they" were reckoning the market would end year around 4800 (will assume calendar year). if there is a link I can post it.

My own view re Brexit was that it was a shock decision and every commentator throwing in their 2c worth about the effects. And the not knowing about the real effects of such a decision resulted in the sky is falling mentality. What has really changed? People still shop, invest, build, etc. The market will be volatile, but somehow now it is a changing world, and maybe the rules are changing.

(These are my personal views and not advice)
Click to expand...

Yeah i think the whole inital move was totally overdone and would have represented a good buy as they usualy do (not that i take them). However usually these price shocks seldom claw the whole thing back...which has nearly occured here. I mean there hasn't even been a pause, its been a bee line. Today is the second day (RTH) that the profiles are hinting of short covering, with the classic 'p' shape.
 

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:dance:

key takeaway is that both May and Gove seem committed to taking the UK out of the EU single market, which is what will do the most damage to the UK economy and largely guarantees Scotland will leave the UK. Markets seem to be focused on the short-term in that these potentially devastating economic consequences will warrant further monetary stimulus, rather than that it will have negative economic consequences.

But the pound seems to be a far better reflection of the expectations for the UK economy. And while markets haven't really encountered massive jumps in inflation alongside QE policies, the massive drop in the value of the pound will change this calculus in the UK.
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Remembering that the short covering and opportunistic buying came in on the back of hope for another referendum or simply UK parliament not carrying through on BREXIT because the people have turned since the vote.

Meanwhile machines, re balancing, end of fin year for some and liberals getting voted it again all adding to the very very short term bounce. Last night they promised stimulus, when necessary, whilst affirming the leaving the Euro!
 
ballast
https://www.tradingfloorchat.com/room/5-stock-chat

Joules MM1
2016-Jul-01 11:38:39
last one : David Scutt Verified account ‏@David_Scutt Jun 28
Australians couldn't give a XXXX about Brexit (via @BIAUS) http://www.businessinsider.com.au/australians-couldnt-give-a-xxxx-about-brexit-2016-6… #ausbiz
Joules MM1
2016-Jul-01 11:37:22
good morning on this dapper green ish morning pre election thingy
Joules MM1
2016-Jul-01 11:36:59
lol, no surprises in that list
Joules MM1
2016-Jul-01 11:36:41
Business Review Verified account ‏@aus_business Jun 29

These are the Aussie stocks hardest hit by Brexit this week- will they bounce today? http://bit.ly/1SIRFgY #ausbiz https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmEpyupVAAEfUqk.jpg:large
poverty
2016-Jul-01 11:36:00
Blue skies ahead
poverty
2016-Jul-01 11:35:48
hey guys, looks like Brexit is now handing out biscuits
appollo11
2016-Jul-01 11:05:25
pov joules
hondy
2016-Jul-01 11:05:24
another gren day
hondy
2016-Jul-01 11:05:14
pov joules
bahamas
2016-Jul-01 11:34:54
pov, joules
Joules MM1
2016-Jul-01 11:34:10
Pete Wargent ‏@PeteWargent 5h5 hours ago

Unemployed persons per job vacancy ratio - best since 2012 #ausbiz https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CmOfCagVEAA7iKb.jpg:large
Joules MM1
2016-Jul-01 11:33:01
Australia's economy passes a landmark- 25 years of growth without recession today- amazing http://bit.ly/299YPJ5
Joules MM1
2016-Jul-01 11:32:33

Manufacturing sector records longest period of growth in 10yrs
Australia's manufacturing sector achieves 12 straight months of expansion, recording the longest period of growth in a decade.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-...cords-longest-period-of-growth-decade/7560300
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:rolleyes:
 
A near Perfect 'P'

Trap some longs there will ya!:rolleyes:
 

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Perhaps I am being too influenced by these -

China's vast factory sector flatlined in June as exports shrank and jobs were cut, a worrying trend evident across Asia that argues for yet more policy stimulus as doubts gather over the potency of measures taken so far.

The hard times signaled by a range of surveys was not what the world needed a week after Britain's vote to leave the European Union condemned that bloc to months, if not years, of political and economic instability.
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Britain's decision to leave the European Union has "unleashed" a crisis in financial markets similar to the global financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, George Soros told the European Parliament in Brussels.

"This has been unfolding in slow motion, but Brexit will accelerate it. It is likely to reinforce the deflationary trends that were already prevalent," the billionaire investor said on Thursday.
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I'm not talking my book for I went back in long late Tuesday with twice as much as what I sold on Friday.
I have been selling in 3rds for the last three days so am basically out now.

Whilst out I still hold the bias to the market tanking psychologically.

I do have, however, a positive bias for FMG and RIO as China is going to stimulate and it looks like the front ran that announcement on Tuesday on FMG.

However everything will get clobbered if the CRISIS sentiment gains momentum.

I've never seen a crash that lets you get out. Time for conspiracy - all the big hedge funds were on the long side so market makers are getting themselves out with large holding manipulation. Just like they held off the collapse in US markets during sub prime with Lemans collapse for a few weeks when it became obvious.
Be looking for the big short when the time seems right.
 
FWIW, this is the XJO after Lehman Brother's collapse on 16 Sept 2008. Those 2 green candles would definitely have forced a lot of the shorts to cover.

Capture.JPG

This is the DJIA.

Capture2.JPG

The market lost just under 4% on the news but recovered in 2 sessions as if Lehman bankruptcy never happened.

Today the overall market is trading like Brexit never happened... although don't tell the European bank stocks that. Bank stocks in trouble indicates the overall economy will be bad... yet a bad economy means more stimulus so the overall market rises. So buy every dip except don't buy the banks... because economy will be bad, so the market will be good. Or whatever...
 
skc said:
Today the overall market is trading like Brexit never happened... although don't tell the European bank stocks that. Bank stocks in trouble indicates the overall economy will be bad... yet a bad economy means more stimulus so the overall market rises. So buy every dip except don't buy the banks... because economy will be bad, so the market will be good. Or whatever...
Click to expand...
:roflmao:
 
skc said:
Today the overall market is trading like Brexit never happened... although don't tell the European bank stocks that. Bank stocks in trouble indicates the overall economy will be bad... yet a bad economy means more stimulus so the overall market rises. So buy every dip except don't buy the banks... because economy will be bad, so the market will be good. Or whatever...
Click to expand...

I plead ignorance, so i had to randomly look up some Euro bank stocks....its ugly.
~
 

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