Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Smurf1976 said:
Very few things are in short supply right now. :2twocents
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The online retail revolution has also given the consumer pricing power over the old style bricks and mortar thing.
So retail may appear soft when it hasn't been, it's just that people are getting much better deals and retailers are being screwed on margins and the growth looks small on naked numbers but in terms of transactions I am certain it's all been pretty boomy over the last 5 years or so without looking like it.

You now have an over supply with that, as you say, as well as emerging markets are not easily becoming consumers despite them having been driving quite alot of demand simply due to their size, but now are slowing etc.

Just another nail.
Not that the coffin even needed it!:frown:

Risk management is the name of the game so

Uncertainty is poison, and we know how much markets love that!!:vader:

The best piece of advice, though, may be to just buckle down and hold on. The world has never been in a predominantly negative interest-rate world, so no one's quite sure what will happen. "There's not a lot of historical evidence to learn from," said Alankar. "We have to see how it plays out."
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notting said:
Commodities have been soft due to oversupply, apart from Gold. If that is true and markets had not been pricing in weakness in demand then we are in for a serious sh4t storm.
RIO finally conceded they had underestimated the weakening demand from China.
I have noticed that Oil is reacting to weakness in China not so much on the oversupply in a normal growing market.
If this is all priced in well OK then, so we'll have weakness for some time but if not this is going to get really really GFC like.

Preez Consider -
What would reverse look like after this kind of pace - Cement being pored -

View attachment 65879

International Shipcare, a Malaysian company that mothballs ships and rigs, is busy taking calls from beleaguered operators with excess capacity. There are 102 vessels laid up at the company’s berths off the Malaysian island of Labuan, more than double the number a year ago. But wait there's more on the way. “There’s a huge demand,” he says. “People are calling us not to lay up one ship but 15 or 20.”

View attachment 65880

Welcome to hell!
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Not quite hell, but we are in for a massive slow down. One cannot grow at 7-10% a year, year on year.

Thanks for the post notting.

GFC big brother is coming, I expect that it will be the big sister in the next decade that will really wipe everything out.
 
Another issue I see is that not only do we have an abundance of goods being produced but people have already bought what they actually want.

There wouldn't be too many people in 2016 hoping that by the end of the year they'll have saved enough to buy a second TV or a new washing machine. If someone wants household goods etc then they've already got them given that most things are incredibly cheap these days compared to what they cost in the past.

So that's another dimension to the over supply issue. Consumers already have pretty much every physical item they want. They don't actually need to buy more "stuff" for quite some time.:2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
So that's another dimension to the over supply issue. Consumers already have pretty much every physical item they want. They don't actually need to buy more "stuff" for quite some time.:2twocents
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I want a new fridge. My work mate just moved out of his parents house and into a rental, he bought a $4000 TV and just about every other appliance you can think of.
 
The ASX won't be tanking today, good OS lead last Friday.

By the middle of the year, the falling AUD will bite, and white goods and any other imports eg computers and software, these are going to get mighty pricey in local dollar terms.

Even online orders via OS suppliers are being screwed down, with GST to be applied, and a range of goods that importers won't ship outside domestic.

But online shopping is great, and keeps the brick and mortar retailers honest.
 
China's exports fell 11.2 percent on-year in January, while imports declined 18.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.

:bricks1:

:D
 
10:04*(CN) CHINA JAN TRADE BALANCE (CNY TERMS): 406B V 389BE; EXPORTS Y/Y: -6.6% V +3.6%E; IMPORTS Y/Y: -14.4% V 1.8%E; Overall trade volume CNY1.88T, -9.8% y/yUSD terms:- Trade Balance: $63.3B v $60.6Be- Exports Y/Y: -11.2% v -2.0%e - Imports Y more... (related USD/CNY AUD/USD PGJ FXI EUR/CNY TRADEX RUB/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com
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I'm not sure how serious the market will take the January Feb numbers as the economy slows at this time of year here for SF holidays....
 
notting said:
China's exports fell 11.2 percent on-year in January, while imports declined 18.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.

:bricks1:

:D
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I would have thought January would be a bumper month before holidays. All my suppliers stopped taking orders at the start of January to guarantee delivery before the start of the festive holidays.

My shipping costs always spike in February as everyone is trying to get their stock on ships after the holidays.
 
notting said:
China's exports fell 11.2 percent on-year in January, while imports declined 18.8 percent, clocking far bigger slides than expected by analysts.

:bricks1:

:D
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I think this must be good news coz all the markets are ripping higher. Or some other piece of such good news that eludes me? Or is bad news good, again? Was that bad news or is it really worse?? Or is oil going higher, which is good news, or bad? Sell the rip.....
 
Uncle Festivus said:
I think this must be good news coz all the markets are ripping higher. Or some other piece of such good news that eludes me? Or is bad news good, again? Was that bad news or is it really worse?? Or is oil going higher, which is good news, or bad? Sell the rip.....
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OIL - Euro, Japan getting into the move inspired by Saudi Arabia apparently ready to cooperate on output cut to bolster weak crude prices, according to a report Thursday. Earlier Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the Saudis had floated oil production cuts of up to 5 percent by each country - apparently that is not true but last time oil hit 26 something everyone started jumping up and down like China and Arabs! So seems like it's the pain threshold.

Oil Rig Count.png
 
After the success or Richard Dawkins book the God Delusion,
He has been working on a new book called the China Delusion.
Here's a sneak at some research he did today whilst sitting at home and watching CNBC live -

Let's start with humility and get up from there-

 
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Bean a while!!
Since this thread hit the front page.
sold everything long to be cautious.
Certainly wasn't geared for the Brexit.
What happens now? Uncertainty everywhere.

So what did we miss?
David Cameron won the election on the back of offering a referendum on Euro membership. We should have paid more attention to the reality of that!!
 
All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....
 
CanOz said:
All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....
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Yeh I sort of agree with this. Hopefully not the beginning of the end though.

Add to the equation a p1ssweak UN, afraid to step in and use force where necessary. The refugee crisis appears to me (as a complete outsider) like it could have been prevented.
 
CanOz said:
All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....
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Great point. The immigration/refugee issue is certainly what would have been the major issue to get it over the line.
 
CanOz said:
All of this is the fault of the US. The US has created an in-stable middle east which led to the many uprisings and arab spring.....then the rise of IS, which led to a huge refugee crisis. IS fanned the flames into Islamophobia and now the world is scared....

This is what the Brexit means to me. A sad day for humanity....
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I wouldn't make quite as sweeping a generalisation and accuse "the US" indiscriminately.
Sure, there were influential forces in the US Administration, using George Bubbleyou as their figurehead, and let him persuade two other dummies with lies about WMD. Plenty of decent US citizens were totally opposed to his politics, just as many Australians and Britons spoke against planned war crimes.

But yes, the seed for the present rift was sown by the bombing of Baghdad. And now, the parties of all three main culprits refuse to accept responsibility for the human misery they created, closing their doors and borders citing "National interest". Despicable.
 
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