Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Ves said:
Whilst most smaller investors obviously didn't pick the crash, it is not like after considering those two snippets that it was a "great shock" by that point in time.

The main problem is that the huge trading range prior to the weekend caused panic on the Monday when it actually did fall 13%.

Also keep in mind that the P/E ratio of the S & P 500 was 32.6 before the crash!
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There's the fable of Joe Kennedy (JFK's dad) selling all his shares because the kid shining his shoes was asking for investment advice. The theory being that if even the guy cleaning your shoes is speculating on stocks it's time get out.

IMO, the GFC was harder to pick. Stocks (in the US) didn't look disgracefully overpriced, although if you had even a cursory glance at an average US bank balance sheet you would seen the enormous leveraging they had. Iirc, at its peak in late 2006 Citi's leverage was out over 50x and with DTA's excluded over 90x. That implies that only 1-2% of assets need to go bad for equity to be wiped out.

ETA: I just checked and excluding DTA's would have pushed Citi's leverage out to over 280x. So somewhere approaching ~0.3% of their loans needed to go bad.
 
From memory I beleive the big crash in the 20s was caused by the Fed calling in Margins or something similar.
Over shadowed by Osama Bin Ladens death, the same day the American in an attempt to prevent their currency devaluing increased margins on the Commodities market.

With the whole GFC that certainly was interesting and many say it was the collapse of Lehman brothers when in fact they were way after many of the other collapses. That was basically the straw that broke the camels back.

Interestingly govt policy and the Fed had a hand in creating the GFC. I never used to be in to conspiracy theories but since ive been diving deep into how the global economy works, ive realised all the major crashes have been calculated by people behind the scenes.
 
zac said:
I personally think this is great. On a short term front. Look at the S&P 500 during QE2, it had a nice bull run and the run stopped when QE2 ceased.
While its bad for the countries economy ultimately, its good while its in progress to stimulate demand etc.
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What a short sighted view.:(
 
Nothing to see here, could well be a false breakout.

Seriously, the fundamentals just aren't there - think about it, we've just had BHP warning about a slowdown in Chinese demand and a really bad PMI come out of there. This is on the back of poor housing data in the US last week, and a piss weak sentiment reading this week.

In fact our market is the only one to rally in the last 24 hours - it's insanity.

ASX is going down soon :rolleyes:
 
Starcraftmazter said:
In fact our market is the only one to rally in the last 24 hours - it's insanity.
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Our market should be higher than all the international ones!
Should have been all along! Boyd by local investors who should now be banking a few profits as we sit at around 5000 the internationals now come in on a weaker dollar.
Take the licenses off all Ausi Superfund managers they don't deserve to be in the game.
Unbelievably incompetent!
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Nothing to see here, could well be a false breakout.

Seriously, the fundamentals just aren't there - think about it, we've just had BHP warning about a slowdown in Chinese demand and a really bad PMI come out of there. This is on the back of poor housing data in the US last week, and a piss weak sentiment reading this week.

In fact our market is the only one to rally in the last 24 hours - it's insanity.

ASX is going down soon :rolleyes:
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Don't under estimate the role technicals play in this game star!
 
Starcraftmazter said:
ASX is going down soon :rolleyes:
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On the probability front, downs form here on out are good lower timeframe buys and shorting ups is no longer probabilistically advised, at least for as long as the XAO holds around 4250.

Screen Shot 2012-03-29 at 1.10.30 PM.png

Anyone notice how far from the index STW fund has strayed?
 
lenny said:
Don't under estimate the role technicals play in this game star!
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IMO technicals are only good when you have a solid trend developed over a couple of years, whether it be up or down.
i begun trading systems just fter the gfc, as this is what sparked my interest in markets, and i liked the idea that the market was somewhat predictable. turns out it was, before the gfc, when the systems were developed. technicals said, market is still going up. needless to say, i no longer trade those systems.
sinner said:
probabilistically
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i didnt even know that was a word...
 
Speaking of systems
Check this old boy, he's been in for quite a while and seems convinced his system is, well, infallable.
You will understand after viewing it why it's in this thread!!!

[video]http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/[/video]

Gotta note him he's still at the table!:eek:

Maybe the BRICS are about to declair war on QEs getting their own back!
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Nothing to see here, could well be a false breakout.

Seriously, the fundamentals just aren't there - think about it, we've just had BHP warning about a slowdown in Chinese demand and a really bad PMI come out of there. This is on the back of poor housing data in the US last week, and a piss weak sentiment reading this week.

In fact our market is the only one to rally in the last 24 hours - it's insanity.

ASX is going down soon :rolleyes:
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Agree.

Where are people's money going?

AUSTRALIANS are paying down mortgages at the fastest rate since the peak of the global financial crisis, with home owners putting in almost double the minimum monthly repayment on loans.

The trend provides more evidence of the rapid shift in the behaviour of Australians in recent years, with many taking a cautious approach towards debt, while more of us are putting funds into deposits.

This is in sharp contrast to the period leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, when access to easy and cheap credit had fuelled a consumer spending spree.
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/owners-in-rush-to-pay-home-loans-20120328-1vys3.html
 
I wasnt aware of the rate at which people are paying off their mortgages.
However ive really noticed that people are very cautious and become reluctant to expose themselves to risk.
Fundamentally so many companies are better off now than they were just before the GFC and theres plenty more bargains out there.
Yet people prefer the safety of banks and secure assets. Which has been evident globally.

Having said that, its only been the last few weeks that money is slowly trickling out of them.

Ironically the media was a while back hyping up that GFC II may happen. But that was never going to be the case as so many people already positioned themselves for it anyway.
 
notting said:
Speaking of systems
Check this old boy, he's been in for quite a while and seems convinced his system is, well, infallable.
You will understand after viewing it why it's in this thread!!!

[video]http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/[/video]

Gotta note him he's still at the table!:eek:

Maybe the BRICS are about to declair war on QEs getting their own back!
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That video was posted on the 23 Jan, and he saying its the top and will fall heavily over the next few weeks..Feb.

Wrong.
 
Why wait for May? Now that it's official, no printing will occur. (Well, officially)
Gotta have a crack at getten those oil prices down somehow you old snake in the grass Benny Boy.
Running away!
 
notting said:
Why wait for May? Now that it's official, no printing will occur. (Well, officially)
Gotta have a crack at getten those oil prices down somehow you old snake in the grass Benny Boy.
Running away!
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i cant pull up the chart as i dont have the programs anymore, but if someone can have a look at whats happened to the asx200 from april the past 2 years. im not a supporter of technicals anymore but its hit the brakes 2 years running. nervous anyone?
 
young-gun said:
sorry, i was referring to a more comprehensive chart i saw today. i cant find it, point is asx has fallen from april the past 2 years, not sure if there is any reason behind it or if its just co-incidence.
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Just to clarify - do you mean started dropping once the date reaches April, or the tops have been in April for the last 2 years?
 
young-gun said:
sorry, i was referring to a more comprehensive chart i saw today. i cant find it, point is asx has fallen from april the past 2 years, not sure if there is any reason behind it or if its just co-incidence.
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What do you mean. That is the price action in monthly bars. How can it be more comprehensive?
 
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