Bill M
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I don't think so, I think March 2009 when the All Ords was down 55% will hold that record.
The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread
- Thread starter RexBudman
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I don't think so, I think March 2009 when the All Ords was down 55% will hold that record.
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I admire your optimism. Years of observation of the markets have taught me that if there's one thing that can be relied upon, it's the predictably unpredictabe behaviour of financial markets. Any level above zero is fair game.
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not bad... not too bad at all
Bill M
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You are right there craft. The thread was opened on the 5th. of August. The All Ords traded between 4150 and 4302 on that day and today it closed at 4391. Despite all the gloom and doom with some predicting silly things like 1100 and 1200 on the All Ords nothing came of it. It's all about value, when I see value I buy, hold and collect those even better big fat juicy dividends.
Just like when the markets hit 6800 and everyone was thinking everything is just going great, jump on the train, the only way is up. And now everyone is thinking the next crash is just around the corner.You ever noticed those online advertising banners? In 2010 they read, "Massive crash to hit in 2010", then in the new year they changed the banner to read 2011, second week into January this year and the same banners now read "Massive crash to hit in 2012". I wonder how many Thousands of $$$$$ that company made out of predicting Doom and Gloom?
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You are right there craft. The thread was opened on the 5th. of August. The All Ords traded between 4150 and 4302 on that day and today it closed at 4391. Despite all the gloom and doom with some predicting silly things like 1100 and 1200 on the All Ords nothing came of it. It's all about value, when I see value I buy, hold and collect those even better big fat juicy dividends.
You ever noticed those online advertising banners? In 2010 they read, "Massive crash to hit in 2010", then in the new year they changed the banner to read 2011, second week into January this year and the same banners now read "Massive crash to hit in 2012". I wonder how many Thousands of $$$$$ that company made out of predicting Doom and Gloom?
there is money to be made no doubt. only in day trading IMO with the exception of a few small caps and specys that might run up for a couple of months here n there. italian bond yields crept above 5%, would appear the cheap loans arent finding there way to government bonds as well as they did in the first round?
I see theres some comments here about the All Ords tanking to 1200 levels.
It would help to understand how ultimately the All Ords comes to be at the level it is today.
While yes the maket in the short term is unpredictable, when a risk assessment is done, its very unlikely to even get close to that level.
There are a lot of factors to be taken into consideration.
Today the All ords has risen above a longterm resistance level. So hopefully now it will see prices rise.
Having said that, I dont expect a huge rally like the S&P500. We dont have the economic fundamentals to back it up and a high AUD doesnt help our exporters.
I think any new highs would be atleast 2-3 years away yet.
It would help to understand how ultimately the All Ords comes to be at the level it is today.
While yes the maket in the short term is unpredictable, when a risk assessment is done, its very unlikely to even get close to that level.
There are a lot of factors to be taken into consideration.
Today the All ords has risen above a longterm resistance level. So hopefully now it will see prices rise.
Having said that, I dont expect a huge rally like the S&P500. We dont have the economic fundamentals to back it up and a high AUD doesnt help our exporters.
I think any new highs would be atleast 2-3 years away yet.
Panic?
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Indeed. I've been following this thread since it started. If you ever needed an example of how fear and greed (in an asymetrical way) drives the market, this is it.
LOL i guess you could say that.
I just mean to say now that 4400 is breached and with more confidence slowly entering the market there should be a slow run to new long term highs.
I dont expect it to be a rally though as Australia economic data isnt that great.
As an example of economic data I do like, the Nikkei appears like a good index to get on, but alas ive committed my pennies now to the ASX300 Index.
Im starting to learn about market cycles and how fear/greed, sentiment etc works.
Im learning that theres 3 types of money that goes into a market,
Smart money (recovery)
Dumb Money (recovered)
Late comers (Bubble-Bust)
Each phased may be 1-3 years apart.
It seems most people except for the intelligent investor miss the phase they really want to get in on though.
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oct 24th 1929 - US market fell 11%.
oct 28th 1929 - us market crashed another 13%
oct 29th 1929 - us market fell yet another 12%
in less than a week? i bet on the wednesday prior no one thought such events could possibly take place.
ANYTHING is possible in markets at any point in time. no matter how unlikely such an event may seem, you never know what tomorrow will hold.
risk assessments are only so useful when there isn't so many variables at play, thats not to say you can't minimise your risk.
i am not claiming the above is about to happen
just pointing out how dangerous markets can be, as alot of investors already experienced when the gfc took hold. the market has just as much chance of hitting all time lows as any other scenario in the current economic climate.oct 24th 1929 - US market fell 11%.
oct 28th 1929 - us market crashed another 13%
oct 29th 1929 - us market fell yet another 12%
in less than a week? i bet on the wednesday prior no one thought such events could possibly take place.
ANYTHING is possible in markets at any point in time. no matter how unlikely such an event may seem, you never know what tomorrow will hold.
risk assessments are only so useful when there isn't so many variables at play, thats not to say you can't minimise your risk.
i am not claiming the above is about to happen
Yeah I understand what youre saying. While the timing of it and the intensity were unpredictable. It wasnt unpredictable that a major correction was going to take place.
I can only comment on the recent ones however, with the Tech Boom and GFC there were warning bells.
With the Euro crisis alot of fear was factored in yet I was expecting a major correction if there wasnt any resolution.
One that caught me off guard was the US Credit downgrade. I beleive that was the biggest sustained 5 day sell off in history or atleast one of the biggest.
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we're not out of the woods yet, euro zone is still looking to beef up its bailout fund(obviously see much mroe trouble on the horizon). it doesnt bother you that central banks are pumping trillions of dollars into economies and the world is still slipping backwards?
if there were warning bells there must not have been many people that heard them. it was before i became interested so i am unsure of the events and news at the particular times.
I personally think this is great. On a short term front. Look at the S&P 500 during QE2, it had a nice bull run and the run stopped when QE2 ceased.
While its bad for the countries economy ultimately, its good while its in progress to stimulate demand etc.
Bernanke hinted the night before last that they may engage in QE3 and immediately on that info the S&P 500 surged.
As an example of this, watch the Japanese economy. They are about to start printing more yen in an effort to seriously devalue their currency and have a target of 1% inflation.
I guess ulitmately the market is priced at a place where the general public beleive it should be. Fundamentally I dont think the data agrees with market sentiment.
While im a bit flat on the ASX outlook, im bullish on the American markets due to fundamental reasons.
I remember reading about this before. But I could not for the life of me remember the specifics. So I did a google search.
The market increased five fold in the five years leading up to the crash.
Every man and his dog were out there reportedly saying things like "the market will go up forever, this is the golden age." I remember learning in school, that the social climate in 1920s america was full of excesses. I wouldn't suspect the stock market to be much different.
Also from Wikipedia
Also, on the first day it fell 11-12% on the opening. But traders on the floor bid it back up and it actually closed down only 1.6% for that day.
Whilst most smaller investors obviously didn't pick the crash, it is not like after considering those two snippets that it was a "great shock" by that point in time.
The main problem is that the huge trading range prior to the weekend caused panic on the Monday when it actually did fall 13%.
Also keep in mind that the P/E ratio of the S & P 500 was 32.6 before the crash!
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i just picked wednesday out of thin air, i couldnt find the stats in the lead up as i was in a hurry
even so, volatile trading a week or two before still wouldnt indicate what was coming. i think for all of that to occur in just a couple of weeks would have been a shock of some degree to almost everyone. even those that knew something wasnt right.it was actually the banks that bid it back up, they were trying to stabilise the market and stop the panic, it didnt work.
these excesses you speak of, i wonder if they were anything like the excesses of the past 20 years?
the run up in the market back then was debt fueled and over purchased, much like todays market. the difference between then and now is it actually managed to deflate itself to make room for a recovery and future boom.