Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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barney said:
Could you do me a favour and throw up a 1 minute chart on the Dax for the last couple of days .... Been doing some work on a range system and curious how close the short time frame volumes might be.
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Not sure this is any good.
FDAX 03-12 (1 Min) 7_03_2012.jpg

I can email you 3 months of 1 min data. In fact 3 years probably. Then if you haven't any software to use it you can download NT for free.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Not sure this is any good.
View attachment 46346

I can email you 3 months of 1 min data. In fact 3 years probably. Then if you haven't any software to use it you can download NT for free.
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Its all good TH ..... The essence is there ..... and thanks for doing that.

The main moves/volume even though not the same are consistent enough to make sense out of ...... almost makes you wonder whether there might be an edge to be found (trading the bucket shops;) ... by watching the real data simultaneously ... it seems to get "rounded" off (spread over a wider time frame) around where the real data/volume has its bigger moves/range.

Not much on ASF regarding the DAX, but I'm seeing some really interesting patterns within the daily range ... especially considering it gets two surges with both the European and then US opens ....... work in progress, but I'm really keen on where its leading ..... Of course simming is a bit different to reality:eek::D

Don't want to de-rail this thread which is ASX, so I'll butt out now:)
 
VSntchr said:
Looks like EUROland is having a mini-tank tonight..
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Did you panic when the DAX fell 3% on 06/03/12?

The DAX has had a pretty good run over the past two weeks and has closed outside the upper Bolinger band three days in a row before forming a hanging man (candlestick pattern) yesterday. As of yesterday, the 10 day MA was 6943, the thirty day MA was 6687 and the 200 day MA was 6270.
 
First there was this. (from THE AGE) John Garnaut, Beijing
February 9, 2012 -

China power play: anti-corruption officials vanish
Mr Wang was until last month the right hand man of China’s most polarising politician, Bo Xilai, the charismatic Communist Party boss of Chongqing city.

Mr Bo inspired and repulsed the nation by launching a quota-driven crusade against the city’s mafia – led by Mr Wang - and a wave of neo-Maoist mania that last year swept across the nation.

Mr Bo’s relationship with Mr Wang collapsed last month under the pressure of an investigation team from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, according to a Chongqing source who has had recent dealings with both Mr Wang and the commission.

Several of Mr Wang’s close associates from his home base of Dalian have also been taken into custody, according to Chongqing sources.

Speculation was swirling last night that Mr Bo himself was a target of the central investigation, after he had unsettled senior figures in the Party, and that Mr Wang sought refuge in the US consulate after turning witness against him.
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Then we get the new figures that China’s imports have outdone exports for the first time in about 20 years surprising almost everyone!!

We then get the premier Wen Jiabao stating publicly that, "corruption needs to be addressed or there could be another cultural revolution!!!" What??

I’ve never heard an official in such a high position make a public comment like that! He almost seemed frustrated that all his good work was about to be trashed by the corrupt hidden leadership who think they know better to serve themselves at the cost of the people.

We then get another confirmation today from BHP saying demand is softening from China.

Not sure exactly what to make of all this, however a few things seem to be coming unstuck in China as the new leadership puppets are paraded out to take the wheel, and are finding that perhaps the ship ain't sailing as smoothly as the price of oil rises and the Euro tide is going out and inflation is no where near as under control as they would like us all to think!!?
 
This thread will be alive again!

Now the trillion dollar question...

Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?
 
skc said:
This thread will be alive again!

Now the trillion dollar question...

Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?
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FTSE is down 1% .. big deal.

Besides im super close to being able to get out of 3 of my 11 open trades...:eek:

Com on the rally!!!
 
skc said:
This thread will be alive again!

Now the trillion dollar question...

Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?
Click to expand...

I like to play soccer, it is good to score at the beginng of the game, if we want to win.
Otherwise it is too painful to wait until last minute, because there is high risk to go
penalty shoot out
 
skc said:
This thread will be alive again!

Now the trillion dollar question...

Buy the dip? Or sell this $hit?
Click to expand...

Don't let overseas bullishness colour the lenses, XJO is close but not there yet IMHO. KOSPI is the 'good' Asian index at the moment.

Annoying because I was expecting way more juice for the XJO in Q1.
 
notting said:
We then get the premier Wen Jiabao stating publicly that, "corruption needs to be addressed or there could be another cultural revolution!!!" What??

I’ve never heard an official in such a high position make a public comment like that!
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Over the years from time to time the jostles for power between political factions in China have been quite evident as they are in any political system. The above is just part of that which recently has been centred around a debate about getting tough on corruption.

notting said:
We then get another confirmation today from BHP saying demand is softening from China.
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According to the Oz (& AAP I believe)...
Demand growth for the commodity used to make steel would drop "to single digits if it is not already there," Ian Ashby, president of iron ore at the mining giant, said during the Global Iron Ore and Steel Conference in Perth.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ingle-digits-bhp/story-e6frg9df-1226305218250
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Fortescue have come out today saying that their estimate is that the natural floor under iron ore prices over the medium term is at about $140 per tonne (of course they are selling their story). Mining is just as much about the cost curve as the demand curve. Notice that FMG went up today?

*edit*
According to AAP, Ian Ashby of BHP actually also said that he believes the natural floor under iron ore is around $120. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...ening-bhp-admits/story-fn7j19iv-1226305262154
 
notting said:
Not sure exactly what to make of all this, however a few things seem to be coming unstuck in China as the new leadership puppets are paraded out to take the wheel, and are finding that perhaps the ship ain't sailing as smoothly as the price of oil rises and the Euro tide is going out and inflation is no where near as under control as they would like us all to think!!?
Click to expand...

China is the bull in the China shop - story.

Generally, I think the main driver of this 'rally' has been the monthly US employment numbers, which appear to be good but as they are guestimates it can be shown that they have been overstated, for whatever reason (it is an election year after all).

So, sooner or later the stats department will have to 'revise' down their guestimates and the market will tank, again. I give it till May at the latest.....unless economic reality shows it's face sooner......

[video]http://youtu.be/V3gCsViMbzw[/video]
 
Uncle Festivus said:
China is the bull in the China shop - story.

Generally, I think the main driver of this 'rally' has been the monthly US employment numbers, which appear to be good but as they are guestimates it can be shown that they have been overstated, for whatever reason (it is an election year after all).

So, sooner or later the stats department will have to 'revise' down their guestimates and the market will tank, again. I give it till May at the latest.....unless economic reality shows it's face sooner......

[video]http://youtu.be/V3gCsViMbzw[/video]
Click to expand...

i read in the australian this morning bernanke making comparisons between current situations and the great depression. he pointed out a couple of indicators, but mainly mentioned how the fed raised interest rates in '33, which turned out to be too soon and it crippled recovery. he doesnt want to make the same mistake again.

seems he isnt fooled by obamas false job rates, why is everyone else in this rally?(if it may be the reason behind the rally that is)
 
young-gun said:
why is everyone else in this rally?(if it may be the reason behind the rally that is)
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I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?

Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).

How on earth are we as prosperous or more prosperous than the credit fueled sub prime rally from 2003 to 2007. What's driving it?

I get the feeling that the only thing that is driving the rise is the lack of sellers, rather than the insatiable demand for stocks.

What happens when people start selling and volume increases? Will DJIA pass 14000 before that happens?
 
Sell into the spikes, buy in the dips. Yesterday was a sell day, today most likely will be a buy day. Pick your targets and good hunting. :)
 
Struzball said:
I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?

Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).
Click to expand...

Actually, when I look at the DJIA, it looks like we are in one big mighty sideways market. Almost 13 years ago the Dow broke through 10,000.
 
Struzball said:
I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?

Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).

How on earth are we as prosperous or more prosperous than the credit fueled sub prime rally from 2003 to 2007. What's driving it?

I get the feeling that the only thing that is driving the rise is the lack of sellers, rather than the insatiable demand for stocks.

What happens when people start selling and volume increases? Will DJIA pass 14000 before that happens?
Click to expand...

Look at the biggest constituents of the DJIA and you'll find the answer. Google, Apple, J&J etc. have managed strong earnings growth over the past couple of years....I guess the performance of those companies isn't representative of the state of the US economy as a whole.
 
Struzball said:
I wonder, is "everyone" else in this rally?

Looking at the DJIA over the last 40 years you'd think we're in the biggest boom in history (2009 to 2012).

How on earth are we as prosperous or more prosperous than the credit fueled sub prime rally from 2003 to 2007. What's driving it?

I get the feeling that the only thing that is driving the rise is the lack of sellers, rather than the insatiable demand for stocks.

What happens when people start selling and volume increases? Will DJIA pass 14000 before that happens?
Click to expand...

i am surprised the dow has gone this far, i guess its hard to predict just how much affect pumping over a trillion$ into an economy may have.

as junior said, there is few stocks that i guess almost appear as safe havens in the US market at the moment and take up large portions of the market. much like our market is dominated by companies like bhp rio coles and woolies. hedge funds absolutely love apple at the moment.

one things for sure its going to be a fun and interesting ride.
 
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