The New Bull Market

[over9k]

I would disagree for the following reasons:

(a) Oil is for the moment (at least) still indispensable to the world economy. Just prior to COVID, growth in demand was robust and growing. As economies emerge from COVID, that demand will re-assert itself; and

(b) The growth in supply, which exceeded the growth in demand, has been ended by the Arab price war; and

(c) The US via the Fed. is actively trying to create inflation: this will likely include a weaker dollar. A weaker dollar is a higher price for oil.

Where I agree is that smaller, highly leveraged producers/services/etc are going to struggle to survive and many (already) will have gone under. In the US Chap.11 bankruptcies however preserve the assets (and often the Company) in a way that can (and probably will) in the right circumstances, bring back that supply more quickly than you might imagine.

jog on
duc

Sorry I should have been more specific: I meant oil producers.

The oil price itself I can't see picking up for a long time either though. The saudi's are capable of pumping a LOT of oil between now & economic pickup, and that's before we start on all the storage tanks, flotillas of tankers all being brimmed & waiting etc etc. Did you see my screencap of the news about the saudi's dropping their prices again? WTI is now below $40 as a result. IIRC, 40 is about the breakeven price for most shale wells.

You are probably right with your argument, from a global point of view. Just for interest I just looked at the biggest one on the Aussie market, that's the one on most balanced super funds and on most investors blue chip list which is "woody woodpecker" Woodside Petroleum Limited (WPL). It is trading at prices not seen in the last 5 years...
View attachment 108797

Yeah it's followed a pretty similar path to the supermajors.

Not going to pick up any time soon. Might be worth a buy later on

 

[ducati916]

Rotation:

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

I wonder what their reasoning is. I posted before about the long trend from small producers into large ones and from bricks & mortar into tech basically just going on steroids over the past 6 months or so. It's not like they wouldn't be aware of it.

Or maybe they'd chosen specific companies in healthcare or whatever?


edit: you see this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-on-report-u-s-mulling-blacklisting-chipmaker

You exposed?

 

[over9k]

Now at -20% for the day. Ouch.

 

[ducati916]

I wonder what their reasoning is. I posted before about the long trend from small producers into large ones and from bricks & mortar into tech basically just going on steroids over the past 6 months or so. It's not like they wouldn't be aware of it.

Or maybe they'd chosen specific companies in healthcare or whatever?


edit: you see this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-on-report-u-s-mulling-blacklisting-chipmaker

You exposed?

If it is a holding (entirely possible) then it's not particularly significant.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Might be emblematic of more things to come though.

 

[frugal.rock]

Might be emblematic of more things to come though.

Ooh, there's a thought.

 

[over9k]

Well he's already nuked tiktok and now microsoft are looking at buying it. Is intel or AMD going to buy this?

Much harder to take a manufacturing plant & move it though.

I wonder how much the U.S based semiconductor manufacturers are going to bounce tomorrow. I don't know who SMIC actually supply but it's probably worth looking into, as they're probably going to need a new supplier pretty shortly...

Of the big ones, only intel have U.S based manufacturing plants and their products aren't competitive. A lot of companies use TSMC, and taiwan is basically the opposite of trump's sh!tlist, but massively on china's.

Peter zeihan reckons it's the next one in the crosshairs after they're done with hong kong just FYI. It might be time for me to open my wallet for him again so he can tell me just what's likely to go down there. Not keen on buying a company that's going to have its supply lines annihilated by the chinese government in response to trump's actions.

 

[over9k]

For those who don't follow semiconductors:

TSMC is taiwan semiconductor manufacturing corporation. It manufactures most of the world's biggest suppliers of microchips for them. It's actually a world leader trading blows with samsung and until recently, intel. If the chinese really get stuck into taiwan, a very significant portion of the world's microchip supply (ALL of amd's chips and most of nvidia's for example) goes offline.

Off the top of my head, samsung, intel, and skyworks all have either korean or U.S based manufacturing plants (i.e do things in house) and would obviously benefit massively. However, in intel's case, they're severely behind TSMC's actual capabilities (technology) and so TSMC, at this time, produces a superior product.

Point is that we here in the west are massively exposed to the supply of TSMC chips. If the chinese do another hong kong on taiwan, several companies (amd and nvidia off the top of my head but there are plenty others) lose their only manufacturer.

With the U.S based plants at intel being either unavailable to competitors like AMD, or just plain uncompetitive anyway, this leaves samsung as the only viable alternative to TSMC, and Nvidia has already pivoted over to samsung as its new supplier: https://gadgets.ndtv.com/games/news...n-for-geforce-rtx-3xxx-series-of-gpus-2289062

Whether this is for the reasons I've outlined above I do not know. What I do know is that whilst nvidia and AMD's share prices are stratospheric at the moment, and AMD is completely (and nvidia is partly) exposed to TSMC supply having bought up ALL of its remaining manufacturing capacity: https://wccftech.com/nvidia-amd-ramped-orders-tsmc-2020/#:~:text=Hardware ⋮ Report-,NVIDIA And AMD Just Bought Up All Excess Capacity At,Next Generation GPUs And CPUs&text=While the Coronavirus has the,next-generation GPUs and CPUs.

TSMC is also by no means the only company there that a lot of U.S companies rely on. With taiwan already being on china's sh!tlist irrespective of anything else and what's happened with hong kong being a very simple proof that china's words are no idle threat, trump might have just set something very ugly in motion.

 

[frugal.rock]

train loaded with mil equip was seen heading honkers way a few weeks ago, plenty of surface 2 airs onboard...

 

[over9k]

Yeah, which makes me think they've got to finish mopping up HK before they can set their sights on taiwan.

How long that'll take is anyone's guess but something tells me that plans are probably already being drafted.

 

[over9k]

NY crude down 5% today. Big tech still falling off a cliff. All futures in the toilet. Armageddon with tesla after its drop precluded it from joining the S&P:

And then this happened:

We'll see how tesla's price responds (probably tank even further). Tell you what, those mum & dad investors that bought tesla at 500 must be absolutely bricking it right now.

I'm going to buy some NIO. Looks like a run on megatech & mega-growth has begun.

 

[aus_trader]

NY crude down 5% today. Big tech still falling off a cliff. All futures in the toilet. Armageddon with tesla after its drop precluded it from joining the S&P:

View attachment 108908

And then this happened:

View attachment 108909

We'll see how tesla's price responds (probably tank even further). Tell you what, those mum & dad investors that bought tesla at 500 must be absolutely bricking it right now.

I'm going to buy some NIO. Looks like a run on megatech & mega-growth has begun.

Thanks for giving us the low down on what's up, err down. Could be another volatile week once the US opens tonight...

 

[over9k]

Yeah, tesla premarket has dropped even further on the news, and we all know what mum & dad investors do when drops like this occur.

We're also heading into winter now, meaning less economic activity, more time indoors around other people, and more cold/lethality of environment, and thus the daily caseload reduction is juuust starting to flatten out:

If this thing isn't sorted by winter (which it won't be), things are going to get bloody ugly again.


Edit: tesla premarket now down 15% and counting. ouch.

 

[Dark1975]

Nasdaq futures look grim , if following off from friday could be a lot of panic selling pre open and differently pull the dow jones with it,
On a another note congress back on the 9th sept from recess, another round of stimulas maybe? I have a feeling the Democrats wont play ball tho? Seems like there trying to railroad trump on coming election

 

[Spaniel14]

The tech correction has begun.... been hugely over inflated for a while now, this should bring it back to where it should be.

AAPL potentially have a product announcement today, could have them buck the trend if it’s good

 

[over9k]

Nasdaq futures look grim , if following off from friday could be a lot of panic selling pre open and differently pull the dow jones with it,
On a another note congress back on the 9th sept from recess, another round of stimulas maybe? I have a feeling the Democrats wont play ball tho? Seems like there trying to railroad trump on coming election

Friday kept running after the open though. And thursday for that matter. Both closed significantly lower than pre-market numbers.

I have no confidence in stimulus at all. Torpedoing the economy and getting it stuck to trump is the only chance the democrats have now. Even the bookies are now putting trump at more likely than biden, and last election they had him 6:1 against hillary after the access hollywood tapes came out.

The question is whether tech simply corrects or the mum & dad retail investor panics and a run on it starts. There's still no talk of actual fundamentals with tech but they and logic went out the window months ago.

Premarket numbers keep dropping the closer we get to the open, so even the institutions aren't hanging around to find out.

Now, do I have the stones to buy a couple of inverse etf's... hmm.

 

[over9k]

HI EVERYONE HOW'S IT GOING?

 

[cutz]

View attachment 108914

HI EVERYONE HOW'S IT GOING?

You sound way excited mate !! Got your shorts on ??

 

[over9k]

Nooooooope.

Got a few low (LOW) ball buy orders in though.