The New Bull Market

[ducati916]

1. Not necessarily. The terminal might make you X% more per year. That X% mightn't be the ~30k AUD that it costs. It would obviously depend on a balance of your utilisation of it and how much money you're playing with.

Well the $25k is just for your basic model. You want added functionality, that costs more again.

If we looked at the natural users: Hedge Funds, looking to maximise returns and thereby attracting additional AUM and greater fees for themselves: how have their returns been? Not all that. Pretty average. Therefore, I would say, for your average retail trader, a total waste of money.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Little warning signs creeping into the market:

Market continues to rise, but no longer convincing.

This type of offering, also not a good sign for the market.

Lots of talk about Robinhood et al. Same in the late '90's and top in 2000, day-traders were everywhere. Tony Oz was one of the more visible ones who had a couple of books etc.

With increasing uncertainty around the election, toppy markets can correct very quickly. The issue (as always) is how long do you stick around to find out? Markets often continue higher, making those that sell out fearing whatever, look stupid. Whatever your strategy, now is not a bad time to at least think about it.

Looking at QQQ

That divergence is heading to a dangerous area. Falling below that support line could trigger a fall in the index as a whole. Of course it may bounce off of it and move higher. The thing with a bounce, is that the market has already had a correction, which is what creates the bounce. When you have a divergence, the bounce becomes a lower probability.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Everyone are getting the jitters about the election.

All the news are banging on about biden very possibly losing, the polls show a convergence to 50/50, and the odds on the betting sites have shifted significantly:

Even the democrats have changed their tune and are making videos of the riots etc and superimposing "trump's america" over them:

The whole thing just smacks of utter desperation.

I mean wow, you mean all those riots that torched entire car dealerships, multi-generation family owned businesses etc etc that democrat mayors and governors allowed to happen aren't reflecting well on the democrat party?

I am shocked I tell you.

 

[ducati916]

So Bank of America analyst raised TSLA guidance to $500/share. Arguing, the higher the price, the more productive capacity can be built, the higher the price. A perpetual motion machine.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Did they happen to mention what their own holdings/positions are?

 

[aus_trader]

ASX not getting a good overnight lead for Friday's trading...

Not even Gold and Silver has been spared...

 

[ducati916]

Pretty much red across the board.

VIX signalled its warning a couple of days back, giving you time to hedge or sell out. I 'think' this correction will continue into the w/e, I can't see it bouncing on a Friday under the current situation, but I'll have a look later once all the data is in for today.

Run to safety, in the long end of the curve.

There are some issues re. inflation bubbling in the background:

The final word to Mr Flippe-floppe-flye:

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So we will be able to judge reasonably accurately when it is safe to jump back long.

So the VIX is still rising. It may stall at the resistance point, it may not. I 'think' we may well move back to the second resistance point before things calm.

So this is the SPY. As it rose less, so it (currently) is falling less.

And the QQQ. Shallow or deeper? Whichever way, we'll catch pretty much the bottom, as we caught the top.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Interestingly, I've noticed that nearly all of the current pre-market prices (that I follow) are almost the same % drop as the open from yesterday:

I.e we're looking at a repeat of the same open drop. This might suggest a repeat of the same close drop too. I've got a few lowball buys in that'll fill if we get the same thing again.

Let's see if tesla does another 9% tonight. That'd put it near the $360 mark, or an almost 30% drop since its tuesday high:

Remember when it was gaining at a similar rate?

 

[ducati916]

So I'm keeping an eye on these two. I'll only buy 1 once the correction is over, so I'm anticipating next week at some point.

Holdings:

Holdings:

I'm leaning towards China due to the fact that I recognise at least some of the stocks. It also seems to have a slightly better mix of industries, but I could be wrong on that.

Any thoughts?

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

Well south korea is massively exposed to export markets, and there's a mountain of tech names I see there. If I was going to go that way, I'd probably go for a semiconductor ETF and remove the export market risk:

I've been eyeballing SOXL for a while, also anticipating a trigger pull sometime next week as well.


Your chinese etf seems to have a lot of banks/finance in it and we all know just how bloody dodgy they are, but ignoring that, I'm not sure what your time horizon is but china's demographics are a total flash in the pan reference consumption-led growth:

Which makes them heavily reliant on exports as well. The difference is, south korea isn't on trump's **** list.

But even if biden wins, the democrats are still pretty hawkish on china, just not as much as trump. You'd get a bounce if biden wins but it wouldn't be a long lasting one. I suspect you'd have another big slump if trump does. Seems like a small but short upside with a biden win vs a big and sustained drop with a trump win. With the betting odds now at 50:50, I just can't see china being a positive risk vs reward. You'd be better off just putting a bet on biden to win the presidency, at least then the upside potential is the same as the downside.

Might be worth taking a look at which competitors to china benefit the most from trump winning, even if just as a bit of a hedge?

 

[ducati916]

Well south korea is massively exposed to export markets, and there's a mountain of tech names I see there. If I was going to go that way, I'd probably go for a semiconductor ETF and remove the export market risk:

View attachment 108667

I've been eyeballing SOXL for a while, also anticipating a trigger pull sometime next week as well.


Your chinese etf seems to have a lot of banks/finance in it and we all know just how bloody dodgy they are, but ignoring that, I'm not sure what your time horizon is but china's demographics are a total flash in the pan reference consumption-led growth:

View attachment 108668

Which makes them heavily reliant on exports as well. The difference is, south korea isn't on trump's **** list.

But even if biden wins, the democrats are still pretty hawkish on china, just not as much as trump. You'd get a bounce if biden wins but it wouldn't be a long lasting one. I suspect you'd have another big slump if trump does. Seems like a small but short upside with a biden win vs a big and sustained drop with a trump win. With the betting odds now at 50:50, I just can't see china being a positive risk vs reward. You'd be better off just putting a bet on biden to win the presidency, at least then the upside potential is the same as the downside.

Might be worth taking a look at which competitors to china benefit the most from trump winning, even if just as a bit of a hedge?

I like financials and I like Alibaba/Tencent as they are AMZN like, so I like YINN on that basis. S.Korea I prefer for the reasons you outlined (political). It will probably come down to which chart I prefer over the next couple of days. There are pros/cons and no perfect answer.

I have held SOXL since late 2010, so I'm not worried re. Tech etc. My holding period is decades, although I will trade them around a core position, which is why I prefer x3 leverage, I trade volatility.

jog on
duc

 

[over9k]

If you want a *bit* of asia exposure as well as leverage, check out FNGU

I'm anticipating a drop just as big tonight so I have an order in at 161. We'll see if it gets filled.

 

[Beaches]

Pretty much red across the board.

VIX signalled its warning a couple of days back, giving you time to hedge or sell out. I 'think' this correction will continue into the w/e, I can't see it bouncing on a Friday under the current situation, but I'll have a look later once all the data is in for today.
jog on
duc

Another great thread and great insights into trading the market. Thank you Duc for all your efforts to educate.

 

[Beaches]

I like financials and I like Alibaba/Tencent as they are AMZN like, so I like YINN on that basis. S.Korea I prefer for the reasons you outlined (political). It will probably come down to which chart I prefer over the next couple of days. There are pros/cons and no perfect answer.

I have held SOXL since late 2010, so I'm not worried re. Tech etc. My holding period is decades, although I will trade them around a core position, which is why I prefer x3 leverage, I trade volatility.

jog on
duc

I traded YINN and YANG alternatively from May through to July. Wasn't really able to get the timing as right as I would have liked and only finished slightly positive. Going forward I will probably just trade this in a long direction.

As for which to pick, I like both YINN and KORU for different reasons on a country basis. So why choose? just take a position in both. I also like the Vietnam story going into next year but could not find any leveraged ETF's for Vietnam, only VNM with no leverage.

 

[over9k]

Hah. So the august jobs numbers were waaaay above expected, and everything's flipped into the green. Let's see how it runs into the close.

 

[over9k]

Good grief. Nasdaq opened POSITIVE, climbed for a moment, and then proceeded to fall off a cliff and crack -5% as if the jobs report was never even released. Seems to have now bottomed out and on a small recovery.

Unbelievable.

 

[aus_trader]

Not a good way to finish the week. I don't see anything sinister in the news, so this volatility and sell off must be due to uncertainty of election outcome... ?

 

[over9k]

That and no trading on monday (public holiday over there).

None of the talking heads on the news have a clue. Nobody's got anything other than "well a pullback was due sometime".

But the way things are going, as of 12.40 EST, things are recovering so fast that we might have a close in the green.

 

[ducati916]

An update:

VIX is coming off. Near, but not touching resistance. Now of course it could always bounce back up over the long w/e and we are in Sept/Oct and an election year.

However I bought YINN

Not a huge fan of China, but I need some diversification exposure in this area, so YINN is it. As I want volatility, so a Trump victory (increasingly probable) could actually work for me.

This morning's strong jobs report saw a bigger than expected jump in nonfarm payrolls during August and a bigger than expected drop in the unemployment report to 8.4%. That strong combination helped contribute to today's rebound in bond yields. Chart shows the 10-Year Treasury yield rising 9 basis points today to 0.71%. The 30-year Treasury yield in up an even stronger 12 bps. That means that Treasury bond prices are dropping. That's unusual on a day when stocks are having another weak day. But not all stocks are being sold equally. The biggest losers are in technology, communications, and consumer discretionary which have been the most over-extended on the upside. Some stocks in the value category are holding up a bit better. That's especially true of financials which usually benefit from higher bond yields and a steeper yield curve.

And of course higher yields favour financials, which have held up pretty well the last couple of days.

jog on
duc