Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The New Bull Market

That is pretty much the bottom of the pullback:

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Things will (IMO) settle from here.

And oil news:

Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices. Saudi Arabia cut the price for its oil that it ships to Asia, a closely-watched price marker that often sets the tone for the global market. Saudi Aramco cut the price for its Arab Light for October delivery by $1.40 per barrel. The price cut suggests demand is weak. A Bloomberg survey found that only 4 in 10 refiners in Asia said they were interested in buying more Saudi crude.

IEA: Oil demand has stalled. The IEA joined the growing chorus of voices who see the oil demand recovery stalling out. “It doesn’t seem like a massive stock draw seems to be happening yet,” Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA, told Reuters. “We are not seeing a robust pickup in refining activity, and jet fuel is the big problem.”

Hedge funds turn bearish on oil. Hedge funds and other money managers recently swung in a bearish direction. For the week ending on September 1, investors sold the equivalent of 40 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts, according to Reuters.

ExxonMobil’s financial pressure mounts. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) faces a cash shortfall of about $48 billion through 2021, according to a Reuters analysis. The widening cash flow gap may require deep spending cuts, asset sales, and/or more debt. Exxon has already added $23 billion in debt this year. Analysts are even beginning to see the sacrosanct dividend as no longer untouchable.

Tesla’s shares plunge after missing S&P 500. Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares plunged by nearly 20 percent during midday trading on Tuesday after missing out on being included in the S&P 500. It was the largest single-day loss since February. As of last week, Tesla’s shares likely priced in the inclusion in the S&P, according to Bloomberg.

ESG scrutiny heightens on metal miners. The ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investment trend is gaining popularity, but with that comes more scrutiny. Bank of America estimates that $600 billion in market value was erased from companies after “ESG controversies,” such as revelations on poor labor or environmental practices. Reuters reports that investment banks and analysts are increasing their scrutiny on cobalt miners in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

China to fast-track hydrogen cars. China is rolling out a package of policies aimed at boosting sales of hydrogen fuel cell technologies and developing the supply chain. The strategy is focused on long-haul trucks.

Shale producers race for permits ahead of elections. U.S. shale companies are racing to scoop up drilling permits on federal land ahead of the presidential election. Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden has said he would put a halt to new drilling on public lands. Permitting on federal land has jumped by 80 percent in the Permian in the last three months. Through August 24, drillers have secured 974 permits on federal land in the Permian this year, compared to 1,068 permits for all of last year.

LNG investment dries up. No new LNG export projects could be approved this year for the first time in two decades, according to Reuters. Some analysts say it is possible that one or two projects go forward, while others say none will receive FID. Before the pandemic, analysts expected as much as 70 million tonnes per year of new capacity to receive the go-ahead.

China looks to build an espionage hub in Iran. A 25-year deal between China and Iran will include a large-scale roll-out of electronic espionage and warfare capabilities focused around the port of Chabahar. Iran is increasingly becoming a client state of China.

Colombia’s oil industry shows signs of recovery. Colombia’s oil industry appears to be recovering, posting the third consecutive month of rig count increases, according to Baker Hughes.

Germany threatens to pull the plug on Nord Stream 2. Germany’s foreign minister declined to rule out sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Moscow did not provide more answers on the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexi Navalny. “I hope…that the Russians do not force us to change our position on Nord Stream,” Heiko Maas said.


jog on
duc
 
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Jeez I dunno duc, there's still plenty well into the red in after hours trading...
 
These charts are all for the S&P500

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We are sitting on a powerful support level.

We can see that the volatility is dropping away. If you read Friday's post, it was suggested that today's open would be volatile, (falling to scare out weak hands and concurrently create new short volume which will then be subjected to a reversal) gradually resolving into the close.

Most importantly, there has been no run to safety in the Bond market today. The Bond market, today, exhibited falling volatility that surpassed the falling volatility in the equity markets.

The biggest decliners, were the mega-caps FAANGs which will exhibit the same characteristics on the way down as they did on the way up in the indices.

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The sectors:

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While falling, were not as volatile.

Now I don't know what the futures looked like earlier, I've just got in from work, but currently they are pretty quiet. I would expect to see a slight drop on the open (if it comes at all) and then a move higher, squeezing any new short positions.

jog on
duc

 
All futures are up, nasdaq up the most. Question is whether there's another big selloff on friday as the past few days will have well & truly given the market the jitters.

I'm pretty sure I saw that 10 year bonds bounced.

My gut says a bounce tomorrow & thurs, selloff on fri again, then rebound and back to a much slower normal on monday.
 
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My gut says a bounce tomorrow & thurs, selloff on fri again, then rebound and back to a much slower normal on monday.

It all depends on how much call open interest needs to be unwound, the put/call imbalance is still looking peachy..
 
All futures are up, nasdaq up the most. Question is whether there's another big selloff on friday as the past few days will have well & truly given the market the jitters.

I'm pretty sure I saw that 10 year bonds bounced.

My gut says a bounce tomorrow & thurs, selloff on fri again, then rebound and back to a much slower normal on monday.
Lol. 45 mins after I post this, futures dip into the red (dow is worst, then sp500) and nasdaq is barely breakeven.

At least that indicates tech might be ok today.
 
I keep wondering when the penny will drop that almost all around the world economic activity is falling rapidly with the impact of COVID and associated shutdowns of whole sections of the world economy.

In that context the most significant support for stock markets is helicopter money from Central Banks. What happens when the punch bowl runs dry and it isn't refilled ?
 
Depends on the central bank, but they're all on record as stating that they'll tolerate higher inflation and print the **** out of their currencies if that's what it takes to keep the numerical value high and credit flowing.

The U.S is in the unique position of having the world's reserve currency and so can abuse it 10x as much as anyone else can abuse theirs.
 
I keep wondering when the penny will drop that almost all around the world economic activity is falling rapidly with the impact of COVID and associated shutdowns of whole sections of the world economy.

In that context the most significant support for stock markets is helicopter money from Central Banks. What happens when the punch bowl runs dry and it isn't refilled ?
It is stripping a bit of fat out of the economy, floating hotels full of cashed up pensioners has stopped, I guess when you have people that well off they are looking for something to demonstrate about it says something.
I think the next stage will be a lot worse than this stage, the Governments are pumping money to soften the impact, once that tap is turned off, I guess it goes to a whole new level.:2twocents
 
Look at the PUT volume from Friday and the re-establishment of CALL volume today.

View attachment 108954

The MMs are going to squeeze those shorts hard!

jog on
duc

Hi

The breakdown is here https://markets.cboe.com/us/options/market_statistics/daily/?mkt=cone&dt=2020-09-08 , it shows index put option trading volume outstripping calls, equities on the other hand, call trading volume outstripping puts, total across the board at 0.88.

I also noticed the call open interest on the big tech stocks much higher then put open interest but coming down, my thoughts are heavy closing out activity on the call side ITM's and subsequent MM hedging activities pushing the Nasdaq down, this is being reflected in the equity put/call ratio ranging between around 0.4 - 0.6 over the past week.

Just some personal thoughts, it's all speculation :2twocents
 
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Yep, strong open (dow 0.9, sp500 1.3, ndq 1.7) but nothing like the dropping days. As I suspected, the rapid drops will have spooked traders away from any of the rapid rise madness we saw through august and it's going to be a much longer/slower run from here. Classic taking the stairs up & then the lift down.

Now we'll see if my improvements wed-thurs and selloff fri prediction rings true. Longer term, I can't see the madness of the past couple of months repeating. Everyone are way too spooked to do that again.

There's also the curveball of election season to think about. That's not to be underestimated.

Just in response to this: I know that I and several other people mentioned that this kind of drop might be the catalyst necessary to finally spook the politicians into more stimulus action, and wouldn't you know it, there's now a vote on this:

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500 billion is now considered "skinny". But apparently, even this has SFA chance of passing. The democrats want 2 trillion.
 
Quick breakdown of sectors. Despite the massive rout of big tech, tech hasn't just rubber-banded back up. The nasdaq is still a bit above the dow, but not by the huge margins we've been used to seeing lately (1.5 vs 1.8):

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There was a talking head last week carrying on about us maybe seeing a rotation going into q4 etc etc but that doesn't seem likely to me. What I suspect has happened is that the big tech crash of the past three days has spooked the markets into actually diversifying again.

Strange concept these days.



Microsoft has also just announced a new xbox that'll be out just after the election (and so will undoubtedly fly off the shelves both immediately and for xmas) and run massively on the news. With microsoft being as big as it is, just like with all the other megatech, a move in MS shares alone is enough to move the indexes.
 
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There's also the curveball of election season to think about. That's not to be underestimated.
Given the apparent extent of central bank intervention and the overall societal and economic backdrop, I suspect this could turn out to be a very major factor. At the very least it's one to be aware of I think. :2twocents
 
And on a funnier note:


Look at the PUT volume from Friday and the re-establishment of CALL volume today.

View attachment 108954

The MMs are going to squeeze those shorts hard!

jog on
duc

Nah duc, nah, they wouldn't do that...

would they?

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Not even an hour after the open and they're already at it. The shamelessness is amazing.
 
Given the apparent extent of central bank intervention and the overall societal and economic backdrop, I suspect this could turn out to be a very major factor. At the very least it's one to be aware of I think. :2twocents
TBH I can't see trump losing this time at all. Last time the only time I thought he was in trouble was when the access hollywood tapes came out, and even that wasn't enough. Combine that with the blowback onto the democrats from all the riots etc this time and I can't even think of any october surprise or whatever that'd be good enough to turn the public against him enough. History also shows us that unless they totally bottle it, politicians are almost always reelected during times of crisis as the public want at least some degree of stability/certainty.

Yes, I have some money on trump to win.
 
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