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If Rudd wins the ballot tonight he may have a problem on his hands to convince the Governor General that he (Rudd) has the comfidence of parliament to form a government.
Windsor and Oakshot will not support Rudd and if Gillard reisgns he (Rudd) will also have three less to make up the numbers and who knows it may also encourage some of Gillard's supporters to follow her and resign, in which case Abbott could be Prime Minister by the weeks end.
A general election may take place in the first week of August.
If Rudd wins, it will be awkward for, Swan and Conroy.