The Gillard Government

sails · 17 September 2012

Is today's newspoll really accurate? It seems out of sync with other professional pollsters:

Strange how Newspoll is out of whack with the other pollsters.

Neilsen (see link below to The Age)
2pp at 53:47 in favour of the libs.
Primary vote - Labor 34%, Coalition 45%
Preferred PM is 47:44 in favour of Gillard

Essential Report (last Monday):
2pp 55:45 in favour of the libs.
Primary vote - Labor 34%, Coalition 47%
Preferred PM is 40:37 in favour of Gillard

Newspoll:
2pp 50:50
Primary vote - Labor 36%, Coalition 41%
Preferred PM is 46:32 in favour of Gillard

So, what's going on with Newspoll?

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/po...es-her-rise-20120916-260ms.html#ixzz26fKDEqVX

http://essentialvision.com.au/federal-politics-–-voting-intention-133
http://essentialvision.com.au/better-prime-minister-34

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-17/big-boost-for-gillard-in-latest-newspoll/4264478

Julia · 17 September 2012

MrBurns said:
This just confirms BS will win and as Gillard is a master at this it only encourages more undeliverable promises and lies

If you're referring to the campaign Labor has been running saying a Federal Coalition would follow what Campbell Newman is doing in Queensland then it's not BS. The Coalition has quite clearly said they will significantly cut the public service.

If today's polls are confirming a trend, then the irony might be that Labor could be re-elected and actually have to find a way to pay for their big spending promises, something I doubt they had counted on.

sails · 17 September 2012

Andrew Bolt has posted the same that Newspoll seems to be very much the odd one out. And yet that's the one that is being bandied around.

This might not even be a dead cat bounce
- it might be a faulty data issue to put it into trading terms...

There is an astonishing divergence between the major polls in measuring the 2PP vote.

Today’s Essential Research poll: Labor 45, Coalition 55.

Today’s Nielsen poll: Labor 47, Coalition 53.

Today’s Newspoll: Labor 50, Coalition 50.

Last week’s Roy Morgan poll: Labour 46.5, Coalition 53.5

Such a wide spread is unusual. I’d say the Newspoll is again far too kind to Labor.

http://blogs.news.com.au/dailyteleg..._its_either_even_or_a_landslide_or_something/

sails · 17 September 2012

Have labor forgotten the public service jobs razor gang when Goss was in power in Qld and Kevin Rudd was his hatchet man?

Veteran Queensland political observers say memories of the Rudd management style stretch back to the early 1990s when he was chief of staff to then-premier Wayne Goss. His penchant for control was legendary and his savage cuts to the public service earned him the name Dr Death.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...t-of-favour-in-queensland-20120225-1tv59.html

drsmith · 17 September 2012

Re-50/50 2PP Newspoll.

Call it Julia (Gillard). Bring it on.

I dare ya.

IFocus · 17 September 2012

drsmith said:
Do you consider that our economic circumstanses are such that there will be no choice in relation to increasing the corporate tax rate ?

If that's the case, it speaks volumes about where you truely stand on the current government's economic management.

Think you totally missed the point a hole in revenue is nothing to do Labor or mining booms Abbott simply wont have the cash and its every thing to do with the GST / tax cuts thanks to Howard / Costello backed up in small part by Rudd.

Tell us where will Abbott get the revenue.............maybe a great big new tax rise like Cando.....sorry Cantax and then lecture the company's that complain about closing because they don't know how to run a business.

Julia · 17 September 2012

IFocus said:
a hole in revenue is nothing to do Labor or mining booms Abbott simply wont have the cash and its every thing to do with the GST / tax cuts thanks to Howard / Costello backed up in small part by Rudd.

What? The incoming Labor government inherited a healthy surplus. They then proceeded to waste it in a panic response to the GFC. They continue with their wildly extravagant plans for which they have yet to explain the funding, e.g. dental scheme, increased aged care, NDIS, Gonski-inspired education changes. All announced in feel good motherhood statements but not an iota of explanation as to how they will be paid for.

Labor, always true to form.

Aussiejeff · 18 September 2012

Gillard has a plan. Federal Labor has successfully managed to trash most of the major states Labor governments. This bodes well for Ms Gilllard.

Why?

When the next Fed election comes around, many Orstralian voters will yet again be faced with the conundrum of whether to hand over total power of political government to the Liberals/Nationals - or, keep Labor in power federally as a "check" on the Liberal states power stranglehold. The same argument was trotted out successfully by J.H. when Labor had a state stranglehold in the not-too-distant past (see pic - courtesy Wikipedia).

I'm sure this issue will be successfully raised by Ms Gillard from time to time in the run-up to her 2013 re-election.

Ergo, look forward to 4 more years of the same from Ms Gillard & Co..

Bliss....

drsmith · 19 September 2012

S&P says Australia heading for $20b+ deficit.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-19/standard-and-poors-says-australia-heading-for-deficit/4269980

sails · 19 September 2012

drsmith said:
S&P says Australia heading for $20b+ deficit.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-19/standard-and-poors-says-australia-heading-for-deficit/4269980

lol - what took them so long to work that out?

sptrawler · 19 September 2012

Aussiejeff said:
Gillard has a plan. Federal Labor has successfully managed to trash most of the major states Labor governments. This bodes well for Ms Gilllard.

Why?

When the next Fed election comes around, many Orstralian voters will yet again be faced with the conundrum of whether to hand over total power of political government to the Liberals/Nationals - or, keep Labor in power federally as a "check" on the Liberal states power stranglehold. The same argument was trotted out successfully by J.H. when Labor had a state stranglehold in the not-too-distant past (see pic - courtesy Wikipedia).

I'm sure this issue will be successfully raised by Ms Gillard from time to time in the run-up to her 2013 re-election.

Ergo, look forward to 4 more years of the same from Ms Gillard & Co..

Bliss....

If that happened, workers had better press the big red panic button. IMO wages and super would be under a real cloud.

drsmith · 20 September 2012

It seems the noises about the underlying health of our economy are growing.

Ross Garnaut doesn't mince words.

Ross Garnaut, the Hawke government economist who predicted the rise of China, has warned Australians to prepare for a living standards bust as the resources boom gives way to falling export prices and a slump in mines development.

Nor does former Reserve Bank of Australia board member and economist Bob Gregory although he's all for more debt and stimulus.

Australia would experience “a large deflationary impact” over the next few years that would require the cushion of budget deficits to finance big-scale infrastructure.

“The production and export of resource commodities will rise as projects are completed but this will generate few jobs and limited domestic income to offset the terms of trade decline and the falls in mining investment,” he writes in an opinion article in the Financial Review.

Also, this about China.

The Financial Review reported yesterday that officials in China’s central bank say they aren’t too concerned about the slowdown, comments which make intervention by the government seem less likely.

Perhaps they want to pick up some resource assets on the cheap.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/brace_for_falling_living_standards_flu2oHFYGZsmYCPZhOzKDJ

moXJO · 21 September 2012

drsmith said:
It seems the noises about the underlying health of our economy are growing.

Ross Garnaut doesn't mince words.

Nor does former Reserve Bank of Australia board member and economist Bob Gregory although he's all for more debt and stimulus.

Also, this about China.

Perhaps they want to pick up some resource assets on the cheap.

http://www.afr.com/p/national/brace_for_falling_living_standards_flu2oHFYGZsmYCPZhOzKDJ

The business community has been harping on about productivity for years and this government has sat on its hands. Australia is like a slow moving train wreck in waiting. You can see where we are headed and yet nothing is being done.

On another note labor has failed with the dental scheme and live exports to Indonesia are still feeling the after affects of this government. Have they run anything apart from slandering Abbott right.

Julia · 21 September 2012

moXJO said:
On another note labor has failed with the dental scheme and live exports to Indonesia are still feeling the after affects of this government.

What has happened to their dental scheme, recently announced, though still unfunded? Have they taken it off the table?

white_goodman · 21 September 2012

IFocus said:
Think you totally missed the point a hole in revenue is nothing to do Labor or mining booms Abbott simply wont have the cash and its every thing to do with the GST / tax cuts thanks to Howard / Costello backed up in small part by Rudd.

Tell us where will Abbott get the revenue.............maybe a great big new tax rise like Cando.....sorry Cantax and then lecture the company's that complain about closing because they don't know how to run a business.

increasing tax rates does not mean increasing tax revenue...

sails · 22 September 2012

So, we are billions in debt and now Swan has donated $500,000 of taxpayer funds to pay for carbon accounting in Kenya, what gives him the right?

TREASURER Wayne Swan, who today said US Republicans are economic "crazies", has been linked to a Government gift of $550,000 to a foundation run by former US President, Democrat Bill Clinton.

The taxpayers' money four days ago went to the former president's Clinton Foundation to pay for carbon accounting in Kenya.

Treasurer Wayne Swan linked to Democrat charity donation

bunyip · 22 September 2012

Julia said:
What? The incoming Labor government inherited a healthy surplus. They then proceeded to waste it in a panic response to the GFC. They continue with their wildly extravagant plans for which they have yet to explain the funding, e.g. dental scheme, increased aged care, NDIS, Gonski-inspired education changes. All announced in feel good motherhood statements but not an iota of explanation as to how they will be paid for.

Labor, always true to form.

Gillard would have to raise taxes in one form or another to pay for all her extravagant promises. According to one of the newspapers I was reading recently, Labor MP’s are now pressing Gillard to do exactly that.

sptrawler · 22 September 2012

IMO the union super funds, will be pushing like mad to stop members being able to access their money. I can't think why

drsmith · 22 September 2012

sptrawler said:
IMO the union super funds, will be pushing like mad to stop members being able to access their money. I can't think why

The government will beat the unions to it.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...n-superannuation/story-fnbkvnk7-1226478848816

sptrawler · 22 September 2012

This is another chesnut from Labor,
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...yes-election-resurrection-20120922-26d6u.html

We need a highly educated and competitive workforce. Well from my experience, the unions got rid of the junior certificate, leaving certificate, matriculation.
Apparently they put too much pressure on students to remember things and too much pressure on teachers to teach things.
Back then we had a highly regarded educational system, my memory may not be correct, but I thought politically motivated teachers union reps flexed their muscles and stuffed our education system.
Funnily now the same government is saying they are going to fix it, what a joke.

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