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Anyone spot any chickens in SA this evening? They've come home to roost!
In layman's terms SA ran out of generating capacity at about 19:33 (SA time) and some areas were intentionally blacked out in order to avoid overloading the system. That wasn't due to a fault with power lines etc, there was simply nothing left to put in the other end and so some consumers had to be cut off. This went on for approximately an hour.
For those for whom this means anything - an LOR3 occurred in SA between 18:03 - 19:00 (Queensland time which is what the power industry uses).
Tomorrow's not looking too great either:
SA peak demand is forecast at 2913 MW with available generation of 2477 MW. The deficit of 436 MW could be supplied from Victoria but:
Vic peak demand is forecast at 8843 MW with available generation of 9486 MW. Adding in the need to supply that leaves just 207 MW spare.
So overall there's basically nothing to spare in those two states apart from supply from NSW and Tas. NSW doesn't have much to spare itself but will be able to put at least 350 MW into Vic so long as nothing breaks and/or they can get it from Qld. Tas can deliver 594 MW into Vic so long as Basslink works (which it is at the moment but it's a single point of failure if something does go wrong).
Now, these numbers might sound like "we've got just enough but no more" until you realise that:
1. Hazelwood power station, which is about to close, is still supplying 1350 - 1400 MW.
2. Forecast temperatures of 41 for Adelaide and 37 for Melbourne are by no means as hot as it gets.
3. Most generating plant is working. There's a unit out at Loy Yang (Vic) and one at Torrens Island (SA) but as a whole most is working. Things do break down however, usually when you were most needing them to work.
4. Wind speed is low but not as low as it gets from time to time. At some future time it will be worse.
Then there's the price. Hitting $14,000 per MWh in SA and $10,000 in Vic. That's around 200 times the average value of electricity. Needless to say that even though most consumers aren't directly paying that price, it will be factored in and one way or another they'll end up paying.
A note about the 350MW I mentioned as being available from NSW. That's the limit of transmission however that itself is highly variable. In short, a number of power stations (hydro) in Vic use the same lines. If they're running then that's about the limit of what can be added from NSW but if those hydro stations are not running then more could be supplied from NSW through the same lines. There's some technical complexity as to the reasons but in short the two largest "Victorian" hydro stations are physically in southern NSW and the connection between the two states runs via them.
So how much is available from NSW depends on (1) how much spare capacity NSW has in the first place (including that supplied into NSW from Qld) and (2) how much of the transmission capacity is already being used by "Victorian" hydro stations physically located in southern NSW. That plus temperature and wind speed also affects all transmission lines (anywhere). So the 350MW is just a typical value that occurs when demand is high and those hydro stations are running - at other times it can be a very different figure.
In layman's terms SA ran out of generating capacity at about 19:33 (SA time) and some areas were intentionally blacked out in order to avoid overloading the system. That wasn't due to a fault with power lines etc, there was simply nothing left to put in the other end and so some consumers had to be cut off. This went on for approximately an hour.
For those for whom this means anything - an LOR3 occurred in SA between 18:03 - 19:00 (Queensland time which is what the power industry uses).
Tomorrow's not looking too great either:
SA peak demand is forecast at 2913 MW with available generation of 2477 MW. The deficit of 436 MW could be supplied from Victoria but:
Vic peak demand is forecast at 8843 MW with available generation of 9486 MW. Adding in the need to supply that leaves just 207 MW spare.
So overall there's basically nothing to spare in those two states apart from supply from NSW and Tas. NSW doesn't have much to spare itself but will be able to put at least 350 MW into Vic so long as nothing breaks and/or they can get it from Qld. Tas can deliver 594 MW into Vic so long as Basslink works (which it is at the moment but it's a single point of failure if something does go wrong).
Now, these numbers might sound like "we've got just enough but no more" until you realise that:
1. Hazelwood power station, which is about to close, is still supplying 1350 - 1400 MW.
2. Forecast temperatures of 41 for Adelaide and 37 for Melbourne are by no means as hot as it gets.
3. Most generating plant is working. There's a unit out at Loy Yang (Vic) and one at Torrens Island (SA) but as a whole most is working. Things do break down however, usually when you were most needing them to work.
4. Wind speed is low but not as low as it gets from time to time. At some future time it will be worse.
Then there's the price. Hitting $14,000 per MWh in SA and $10,000 in Vic. That's around 200 times the average value of electricity. Needless to say that even though most consumers aren't directly paying that price, it will be factored in and one way or another they'll end up paying.
A note about the 350MW I mentioned as being available from NSW. That's the limit of transmission however that itself is highly variable. In short, a number of power stations (hydro) in Vic use the same lines. If they're running then that's about the limit of what can be added from NSW but if those hydro stations are not running then more could be supplied from NSW through the same lines. There's some technical complexity as to the reasons but in short the two largest "Victorian" hydro stations are physically in southern NSW and the connection between the two states runs via them.
So how much is available from NSW depends on (1) how much spare capacity NSW has in the first place (including that supplied into NSW from Qld) and (2) how much of the transmission capacity is already being used by "Victorian" hydro stations physically located in southern NSW. That plus temperature and wind speed also affects all transmission lines (anywhere). So the 350MW is just a typical value that occurs when demand is high and those hydro stations are running - at other times it can be a very different figure.
