The future of energy generation and storage

moXJO said:

At the moment the whole lot just looks like a sht show.

Click to expand...

Unfortunately that's pretty much the case mostly caused by politics, badly needs bipartisan approach but the Coalition is running hard against renewables which I don't understand why.

sptrawler said:

When the going gets tough, the tough flex their muscles, but what about the planet?

Renewable connections stalled, prices rising as the fallout from a bitter industrial power fight spreads

Entrenched opposition between electrical workers and NSW transmission owner Transgrid is taking a toll on a strained power market.

www.abc.net.au

Click to expand...

This is where national leadership is required.

Lay down the law to the companies and unions and get the things done.

But Labor heavying the unions ? Let's see if they have the guts.

"It has been reported that spiralling costs on the troubled project were to blame for the poor financial performance of Elecnor, the Spanish firm brought in by Transgrid to finish the line when previous contractor Clough went bust."

Spain can't build ships or power grids, maybe we should get someone else?

sptrawler said:

With regard that comment, without pissing on a tree, I do have a letter of commendation from the GM of SECWA for saving a grid blackout, unlike yourself who has stated they caused one.

Click to expand...

Very good point, blacked Exmouth around 5 or 6 times Carnarvon, Denham, Gascoyne Junction, Kalbarri only once Carnarvon and Kalbarri were due to mistakes.

On the bright side never blacked Onslow , Meekatharra or Wiluna

I never got a letter

IFocus said:

Unfortunately that's pretty much the case mostly caused by politics, badly needs bipartisan approach but the Coalition is running hard against renewables which I don't understand why.

Click to expand...

Renewables would obviously be able to be deployed faster. The libs had decades to do something, I think Howard was the last one with some kind of plan.

Labor at least has committed.
I honestly don't like the idea of a windfarm off the coast of places like Wollongong and Newcastle. It would be a blight on their beaches. I'm just not convinced with renewables ad it seems like a bunch of industry investors throwing anything up.

sptrawler said:

The Bhadla Solar Park is a solar power plant located in the Thar Desert of Rajasthan, India. It covers an area of 56 square kilometers and has a total installed capacity of 2,245 megawatts, making it the largest solar park in the world as of 2023.
There are 7.5million solar panels.

This is a satellite image from NASA, so we need a LOT of farms that size, plus more every time the load grows with the population and industry, plus batteries plus hydro storage.
So it is a massive undertaking and we aren't moving very fast ATM, due to roadblocks and red tape.

View attachment 180304

Click to expand...

I wonder if there is a negative climate impact from this beyond just taking up the land?

I heard windfarms were possibly drawing down warm, or cold air, something along those lines.

moXJO said:

I wonder if there is a negative climate impact from this beyond just taking up the land?

I heard windfarms were possibly drawing down warm, or cold air, something along those lines.

Click to expand...

I haven't heard anything regarding wind farms, with solar farms the big issue is dust on the panels reducing output and vegitation growth shading the panels.
I mentioned to a farmer near the Merriden solar farm, he may be able to hire out a flock of sheep to clean out under the panels once a year.
He is going to contact the company and ask.

moXJO said:

I wonder if there is a negative climate impact from this beyond just taking up the land?

Click to expand...

Heat. Putting dark coloured things on the ground facing the sun will definitely result in more heat versus putting light coloured things in the same place.

But before anyone gets too excited, that's primarily an argument against:

1. Highways and roads in general. Go put your hand on one on a clear sunny day....

2. Allowing black as a paint colour on vehicles. A silly choice from a safety perspective and getting hot is another reason to not do it. No idea why it made a comeback.

3. The big one - roofs. Take a look at new build housing areas and practically every roof is black which is a ridiculous choice anywhere that ever gets hot. White or at least very light colours are a much better choice.

Solar farms would be on the list after that realistically.

moXJO said:

I'm just not convinced with renewables ad it seems like a bunch of industry investors throwing anything up.

Click to expand...

What it needs is a proper, calculated plan.

Trouble is that's at odds with current ideology which favours free market approaches over planning and that's part of the problem.

SirRumpole said:

Spain can't build ships or power grids, maybe we should get someone else?

Click to expand...

Personally I'm a fan of the approach historically used in Tasmania.

Employ a workforce, put competent people in charge of them, go and build things.

It's imperfect but it does enable pretty tight control of costs since most of them are fixed. Adjusted for CPI inflation, the major projects did come in on or under budget in "real terms" - it was only the spike in CPI during the 1970's and 80's that lead to the original estimates being wrong and the resultant criticism but they were still accurate if that inflation was taken into account.

Some things were contracted but overall it was mostly done "in house".

Smurf1976 said:

Personally I'm a fan of the approach historically used in Tasmania.

Employ a workforce, put competent people in charge of them, go and build things.

It's imperfect but it does enable pretty tight control of costs since most of them are fixed. Adjusted for CPI inflation, the major projects did come in on or under budget in "real terms" - it was only the spike in CPI during the 1970's and 80's that lead to the original estimates being wrong and the resultant criticism but they were still accurate if that inflation was taken into account.

Some things were contracted but overall it was mostly done "in house".

Click to expand...

Of course, retain the skills here.

We used to build trains, white goods, electronics, and of course cars. And that was for a much lower population. Basically all gone now and we are training generations of barristas and social workers.

The lucky country or the lazy country?

Well there were tariffs on imported products, to help our smaller population base compete, we will probably have to re introduce them if we want to re start a solar manufacturing facility and start a battery manufacturing industry.
Which actually makes sense, if we are going to become dependent on solar, with battery storage as the main support medium.

Smurf1976 said:

Personally I'm a fan of the approach historically used in Tasmania.

Employ a workforce, put competent people in charge of them, go and build things.

It's imperfect but it does enable pretty tight control of costs since most of them are fixed. Adjusted for CPI inflation, the major projects did come in on or under budget in "real terms" - it was only the spike in CPI during the 1970's and 80's that lead to the original estimates being wrong and the resultant criticism but they were still accurate if that inflation was taken into account.

Some things were contracted but overall it was mostly done "in house".

Click to expand...

SECWA in WA was similar but got broken up a lot of stuff now done by contractors etc suspect that includes engineering.

SP do you kown what happens now?

sptrawler said:

Well there were tariffs on imported products, to help our smaller population base compete, we will probably have to re introduce them if we want to re start a solar manufacturing facility and start a battery manufacturing industry.

Click to expand...

Basically all manufacturing countries have some form of tariffs or subsidies to help their local industry, but yet some in government here think we can do without them and compete on a "level playing field". Ha ha , dream on. If we actually want an industry here then we need to give our industries an edge. Also, we need to concentrate on supplying our own market first rather than having pipe dreams of exporting to the world where we are a minor player.

SirRumpole said:

Basically all manufacturing countries have some form of tariffs or subsidies to help their local industry, but yet some in government here think we can do without them and compete on a "level playing field". Ha ha , dream on. If we actually want an industry here then we need to give our industries an edge. Also, we need to concentrate on supplying our own market first rather than having pipe dreams of exporting to the world where we are a minor player.

Click to expand...

I think Labor are on the right track with solar panel and battery manufacturing, but it will need a lot of subsidising, however to not do it will leave us in a lot worse position IMO.

IFocus said:

SECWA in WA was similar but got broken up a lot of stuff now done by contractors etc suspect that includes engineering.

SP do you kown what happens now?

Click to expand...

I haven't been involved since 2011, but all engineering was centred at Wellington Street.
With transmission and generation I would think they would still oversee a lot of the integration, but with installations like the Kwinana CATYL battery 90% of the design would be supplied by the vendor.
The last major project I was involved in was the distributive control system upgrade at KPS and most of the design and installation was carried out by BDSA and ABB, we were involved in isolations and commissioning.

IFocus said:

Unfortunately that's pretty much the case mostly caused by politics, badly needs bipartisan approach but the Coalition is running hard against renewables which I don't understand why.

Click to expand...

Trying to be neutral in terms of my own views and just looking at what the Coalition are doing from a political perspective, I see it as them realising the other side (Labor) are somewhat backed into a corner.

Australia's present direct use, that is use for purposes other than electricity generation, of gas is at an all time high and the trend remains up.

Based on sales in the 12 months to the end of April 2024, Australia's consumption of oil-based fuels is at an all time high and the trend remains up.

Coal consumption, excluding coal used in power stations, has been flat over the decade 2011-12 to 2021-22. During this time consumption fell 1.7% an that's just noise, it's within the bounds of normal year to year variation.

Which brings me to the crux of the issue and this one's fairly brutal.

By 2030 Australia's climate goals will largely have been achieved, with electricity from 82% renewable sources assuming that target is achieved. In other words, by 2030 the low hanging fruit will have almost all been picked in terms of fossil fuel reduction and the trend in emissions will be up, not down, unless the trend changes. For liquid fuels that's possible due to EV's, for gas it's not even slightly on track.

2021-22 end user consumption by fuel:

Coal = 104.3 PJ
Gas = 994.0 PJ
Oil = 2004.5 PJ
Electricity = 872.6 PJ
Other Renewables* = 178.1 PJ

*Wood, ethanol, biodiesel, bagasse, sewer gas, landfill gas, municipal waste, agricultural wastes, etc.

So if the goal of "net zero by 2050" is to be achieved, then post-2030 it requires a major increase in electricity use. Not a bit more but a whole lot more. In other words, even if we do achieve 82% renewable electricity by 2030, that's the beginning not the end.

Which brings up the problem of deep firming and that on present plans it's going to be done with gas and diesel, that is fossil fuels, with the alternative being hydro. This too, the deep firming, will require scaling up.

Now my own theory is the Coalition's betting that Labor's wedged itself there politically:

If Labor wants gas out of households and small business then that is actively reversing Labor's own policy from the relatively recent Rudd - Gillard era which sought to increase, not decrease, the use of gas. This upsets the general public directly, that is homeowners, since a high proportion of recent builds aren't easily electrified.

The willingness of Labor's support base to support major investment in to new fossil fuel plant for deep firming is, politically, highly doubtful. Even the mainstream media has reported there's a few rumblings there.

To go with hydro as the alternative runs into the problem that the Hawke-Keating era Labor government didn't just put south-west Tasmania into a World Heritage Area but rather, they put, or got the states to put, almost all worthwhile sites nationally into either a WHA or National Park.

So I think politically the Coalition is simply expecting Labor to trip itself up over all this simply because the low hanging fruit has been picked and "hard" choices have to be made. "Hard" as in they're going to upset someone, there's no way of avoiding that, and the "someone" is a Labor supporter who's votes or preference the party needs.

Back down on climate and invest heavily into new fossil fuel infrastructure, including taxpayer subsidies or outright government ownership?

Dust off the plans and build new hydro?

And what about all those modern homes with gas?

One or the other is "yes" and the Coalition knows it. They're just betting on Labor tripping up politically over that, and being able to say well here's our nuclear alternative.

Another way to say that is simply that the ability to be a "people pleaser" and keep everyone happy is running out of time. It's easy to a point, but a time comes where hard decisions have to be made and everyone who thought you were going to do x and loved you realises that actually you're not doing that at all and now they don't like you so much, indeed they probably hate you. At that point simply standing there with an alternative tends to gain considerable support.

Chris Bowen will be on National Press Club on Wed 17th July.

If members here know any journalists it would be a good opportunity to let them know what questions to ask.

SirRumpole said:

If members here know any journalists it would be a good opportunity to let them know what questions to ask.

Click to expand...

Some of us have much higher standards in the "who I know department" .
Mick

mullokintyre said:

Some of us have much higher standards in the "who I know department" .
Mick

Click to expand...

Yeah, well someone has to ask the questions.

SirRumpole said:

Yeah, well someone has to ask the questions.

Click to expand...

Don't worry the gallery will be borrowed from Q & A, Sarah Ferguson will drive the bus, to transport them.