The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

And another announcement, they are coming thick and fast now, goto get a move on before nuclear looks like the only long term option.
Looks like the wheels are at last in motion.

Energy transition: Giant batteries are getting even bigger in Australia as coal exit nears

Developers of giant batteries designed to smooth the shift from coal to cleaner power are attracting record levels of investment.

www.smh.com.au

Most of the batteries installed so far across the country exhaust their stored energy within one to two hours of output and are mainly used to supply urgent discharges to maintain system frequency.
Akaysha Energy, owned by US wealth management behemoth BlackRock, yesterday secured $650 million from 11 local and international banks to press ahead with the four-hour Orana battery system near Wellington in central-west NSW.

With a capacity of 415 megawatts and 1660 megawatt-hours, the Orana project would be the largest four-hour battery in the east coast power grid and one of the largest in the world, Akaysha said.
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The battery is expected to begin operating in 2026, meaning it will be available in time for the earliest possible closure of the giant Eraring coal-fired power station.

Developers of the Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub, a four-hour battery project in Melbourne’s west, this year secured a $400 million debt financing package from a syndicate including Export Development Canada, Societe Generale, Standard Chartered and Westpac. The package was a record at the time.

France’s Neoen, meanwhile, is developing what will become Australia’s biggest four-hour battery complex in Collie, Western Australia, with combined capacity of 560 megawatts and 2240 megawatt-hours.

With most of the nation’s coal-fired power stations due to close in the next decade and a federal government target for the grid to source 82 per cent of its power from renewables by 2030, BlackRock has previously said that Australia has “risen up the rankings” to become one of the most attractive destinations for private capital to invest in the energy transition.
In its 25-year road map, the Australian Energy Market Operator calls for greater investment in “firming” assets, including big batteries, hydroelectricity projects and fast-ramping gas-powered generators to smooth out the peaks and fill gaps in variable renewable energy.

On Monday, Akaysha and BlackRock said they had committed and mobilised $3 billion to energy storage projects across Australia, with more than four gigawatts of projects under construction.
BlackRock regional co-head of climate infrastructure Charlie Reid said the type of financing secured in the debt deal for Orana served the “urgent need for large-scale batteries to support an orderly, energy transition in Australia”.

 

[SirRumpole]

And another announcement, they are coming thick and fast now, goto get a move on before nuclear looks like the only long term option.
Looks like the wheels are at last in motion.

Energy transition: Giant batteries are getting even bigger in Australia as coal exit nears

Developers of giant batteries designed to smooth the shift from coal to cleaner power are attracting record levels of investment.

www.smh.com.au

Most of the batteries installed so far across the country exhaust their stored energy within one to two hours of output and are mainly used to supply urgent discharges to maintain system frequency.
Akaysha Energy, owned by US wealth management behemoth BlackRock, yesterday secured $650 million from 11 local and international banks to press ahead with the four-hour Orana battery system near Wellington in central-west NSW.

With a capacity of 415 megawatts and 1660 megawatt-hours, the Orana project would be the largest four-hour battery in the east coast power grid and one of the largest in the world, Akaysha said.
Loading
The battery is expected to begin operating in 2026, meaning it will be available in time for the earliest possible closure of the giant Eraring coal-fired power station.

Developers of the Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub, a four-hour battery project in Melbourne’s west, this year secured a $400 million debt financing package from a syndicate including Export Development Canada, Societe Generale, Standard Chartered and Westpac. The package was a record at the time.

France’s Neoen, meanwhile, is developing what will become Australia’s biggest four-hour battery complex in Collie, Western Australia, with combined capacity of 560 megawatts and 2240 megawatt-hours.

With most of the nation’s coal-fired power stations due to close in the next decade and a federal government target for the grid to source 82 per cent of its power from renewables by 2030, BlackRock has previously said that Australia has “risen up the rankings” to become one of the most attractive destinations for private capital to invest in the energy transition.
In its 25-year road map, the Australian Energy Market Operator calls for greater investment in “firming” assets, including big batteries, hydroelectricity projects and fast-ramping gas-powered generators to smooth out the peaks and fill gaps in variable renewable energy.

On Monday, Akaysha and BlackRock said they had committed and mobilised $3 billion to energy storage projects across Australia, with more than four gigawatts of projects under construction.
BlackRock regional co-head of climate infrastructure Charlie Reid said the type of financing secured in the debt deal for Orana served the “urgent need for large-scale batteries to support an orderly, energy transition in Australia”.

The more the merrier. The more alternatives there are the more reliable the system is likely to be.

 

[Smurf1976]

Batteries v pumped hydro ? The USA seems to be thinking that batteries are better.

I was with him until he started going on about CO2 intensity of charging.

Bottom line is putting the battery at a wind farm makes negligible difference to emissions compared to putting it anywhere else. Because what makes the difference is the marginal source of generation, the one used versus not used, not which one's being bought "on paper".

In other words, regardless of where in the system the battery's located it doesn't change the generation mix that charges it unless it's overcoming a transmission constraint. Only in that case does it make a difference. There are examples where that is the case (eg NW Victoria is one), but usually it's not. For the rest, it's the marginal source of generation, the one that's running versus not running when the battery is charging, that determines its emissions.

Same with anything. Eg emissions from boiling your kettle at home are a function of the marginal source of generation not the nearest one.

That aside, there's no denying that batteries are certainly seeing mass deployment for peak power and in practice have grabbed that market, it's highly doubtful anyone's ever going to build a conventional generating plant with the intention of using it as peaking generation ever again. So a revolution of sorts has occurred, no question there batteries are now the preferred technology for peaking plant.

That said, there's more to it than peak power alone. There's also the energy storage to consider.

Eg if we take a 400MW / 1600MWh battery that is 4 hours storage.

Snowy 2.0 is about 160 hours at constant maximum output or 175 hours at nominal output.

The Gordon power scheme, Tasmania, stores just on 3 years of inflows when full. Indeed it stores more energy than the entire worldwide grid battery fleet. It has a comparatively minor peak power output however, batteries leave it for dead there.

So batteries for peak power yes. But for dealing with prolonged periods of low wind and solar output it's still a case of relying on hydro or fossil fuels and therein lies a big problem. The public doesn't seem to really grasp that, politicians don't want to accept that, and it's advantageous for business to pick the low hanging fruit (eg batteries) and avoid the hard stuff. That's the real problem, getting that sorted.

Past 12 months of wind + solar (combined) data shows the issue clearly:

How to deal with days, or worse still multiple consecutive days, of very low output is the hard bit. That these tend to occur between mid-Autumn through to mid-Winter is particularly problematic given that's when total energy consumption (as distinct from peak power) tends to be highest in most states.

 

[Smurf1976]

Posting charts for the other states to highlight that in the Australian context, the further south a location is the bigger the problem. Charts show wind and solar, nothing else.

First the obvious one, Tasmania. If it wasn't for hydro there'd be no chance of making this work with renewables because it is indeed erratic to say the least:

Not as severe in NSW as it is in the other states however although the trend's still there and at the same times:

Meanwhile it's far easier in Queensland, and to considerable extent when low output does occur it's not at the same time as elsewhere which is advantageous.

Hence why must discussion focuses on the south-eastern states, especially Victoria, as the most difficult to solve by some combination of hydro, gas, diesel and interconnection to other regions either because they're a good place to put those things (eg hydro in Tas) or in the case of Queensland because of the somewhat inverse correlation in wind and solar output.

 

[SirRumpole]

Hence why must discussion focuses on the south-eastern states, especially Victoria, as the most difficult to solve by some combination of hydro, gas, diesel and interconnection to other regions either because they're a good place to put those things (eg hydro in Tas) or in the case of Queensland because of the somewhat inverse correlation in wind and solar output.

Yes, the politicians have to grasp the idea that batteries along won't be enough. More pumped or on river hydro has to be in the mix, and the gas situation is untenable in the long term unless they develop other fuels.

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting article explaining how a developing country is installing renewables and how small we really are in the scheme of things.

'Winning the race': How China plans to meet its 2030 renewables target by the end of this month

While Australia debates the merits of going nuclear and frustration grows over the slower-than-needed switch to solar and wind power, China's renewables rollout is breaking all the records.

www.abc.net.au

 

[mullokintyre]

The two articles above about large scale battery installation contain one aspect that worries me.
Both highlight how funding has been secured from external parties to fund the.
obviously then, these externals are going to need a return.
Will we get to the situation where these batteries are guaranteed a return by the AEMO to ensure they are viable?
Its one of the reasons why government need to bit the bullet and start building /owning these energy storage /generation sites, so they carry the marginal cost of the generation/storage.
No one worried about whether the SECV had to make a profit when it was owned by the state government.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

The two articles above about large scale battery installation contain one aspect that worries me.
Both highlight how funding has been secured from external parties to fund the.
obviously then, these externals are going to need a return.
Will we get to the situation where these batteries are guaranteed a return by the AEMO to ensure they are viable?
Its one of the reasons why government need to bit the bullet and start building /owning these energy storage /generation sites, so they carry the marginal cost of the generation/storage.
No one worried about whether the SECV had to make a profit when it was owned by the state government.
Mick

Which is what I've been saying, it isn't only a financial issue, it's a national security issue having you whole electrical system underpinned by foriegn supplied electronics which can be remotely controlled.
Weird plan, someones asleep at the wheel.

 

[SirRumpole]

A bigger battery for Soth Australia.

SA's newly approved battery will be more than three times the size of famous 'Tesla battery'

The South Australian government has approved the Limestone Coast Energy Park project, which promises to be the biggest one in the state, eclipsing Tesla's 150MW battery.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SirRumpole]

No one worried about whether the SECV had to make a profit when it was owned by the state government.

Well, that's one of the essential problems, too many fingers in the pie wanting their cut.

 

[IFocus]

The two articles above about large scale battery installation contain one aspect that worries me.
Both highlight how funding has been secured from external parties to fund the.
obviously then, these externals are going to need a return.
Will we get to the situation where these batteries are guaranteed a return by the AEMO to ensure they are viable?
Its one of the reasons why government need to bit the bullet and start building /owning these energy storage /generation sites, so they carry the marginal cost of the generation/storage.
No one worried about whether the SECV had to make a profit when it was owned by the state government.
Mick

I know an energy trader who has told me they see great opportunities around batteries, guess who pays?

Don't know about the SECV but in WA the SECWA paid the state government a dividend most years.

 

[Smurf1976]

The Brady-Heywood Report into the major incident at Callide C power station in Queensland has been released and can be downloaded from here:

https://www.csenergy.com.au/ArticleDocuments/192/Brady%20Heywood%20-%20Technical%20and%20Organisational%20Investigation%20of%20Callide%20Unit%20C4%20Incident_Redacted%20-%2017%20July%202024.pdf

In brief (quoting from the report). Emphasis in bold is mine.

During the switching sequence, the following took place:  The replacement battery charger was first connected to the Unit C4 DC system.  Then, in accordance with the switching sequence, the Station DC supply (the alternate supply) was disconnected from Unit C4. At this step in the switching sequence, the Unit C4 battery had not yet been connected to the unit. This was due to occur in the next step of the switching sequence.  With no battery connected, the disconnection of the Station DC supply resulted in the Unit C4 battery charger being the sole source of DC supply to Unit C4.  As the sole source of supply, the battery charger was required to respond instantly to maintain the voltage in the Unit C4 DC system. The battery charger, however, did not respond instantly, which caused the Unit C4 DC system voltage to collapse from ~243 V to ~120 V.  The voltage collapse in the DC system caused one of the unit’s protection systems, known as ‘arc flap protection’, to respond as if a fault had occurred on the unit’s AC system. Despite no such fault actually occurring, the arc flap protection activated and disconnected the AC supply to Unit C4.  With no AC supply, the Unit C4 battery charger shut down and, with no battery to provide redundancy, this resulted in a complete loss of DC supply to Unit C4 (from ~120 V to ~0 V). The loss of AC and DC supplies to Unit C4 occurred in less than two seconds, leaving the unit without the two electrical systems it needed to operate properly, disconnect from the grid, or shut down safely.

The key consequences of the loss of AC and DC supply were as follows:  No seal oil being pumped to the generator hydrogen seals, which resulted in hydrogen escaping, likely causing hydrogen fires. This loss of hydrogen, in combination with the loss of other cooling systems, caused the generator to overheat.  No lubrication oil being pumped to the bearings, which resulted in the thin film of oil between the rotor shaft and the bearings being lost. The rotor shaft and bearings began grinding metal-on-metal, which created friction and heat. This led to the bearings melting and the rotor shaft softening and deforming. The deformations caused the rotor to wobble out of its finely tuned and balanced alignment.  No protection, control, and monitoring systems being available for the unit to operate properly, disconnect from the grid, or shut down safely, due to the loss of DC supply. The motoring of Unit C4 continued for approximately 34 minutes and, with the loss of key systems, led to the catastrophic failure of Unit C4.

The incident could have been mitigated if the Unit C4 automatic changeover switch was operable and had successfully restored DC supply

The Unit C4 automatic changeover switch, which should operate and restore DC supply to parts of the unit in the event of a loss of DC, was inoperable in automatic mode on the day of the incident. Therefore, DC supply was not restored to Unit C4. It is likely that CS Energy intentionally left the Unit C4 ACS inoperable after it was found to be inoperable following a previous event in January 2021. Despite an acknowledgement by CS Energy that an inoperable automatic changeover switch was a removal of redundancy from the DC system, no evidence has been sighted of any formal risk assessments or management of change undertaken with respect to the Unit C4 automatic changeover switch being in an inoperable state. No evidence has been sighted that indicates the inoperable state of the Unit C4 automatic changeover switch was considered in preparing for or deciding to proceed with the switching sequence with Unit C4 online, nor has any evidence been sighted that the inoperable state of the Unit C4 automatic changeover switch was widely communicated within CS Energy.

As for how much it has cost consumers, that's a hard one to put numbers on but bottom line is market prices, and electricity bills, have been higher without it than they'd have been had the incident not occurred. Because the replacement generation is higher cost plus the market impacts of less competition.

The latest plan is a return to service on 31 August 2024.

 

[Smurf1976]

Don't know about the SECV but in WA the SECWA paid the state government a dividend most years.

In Tasmania the Hydro was always a self-funded entity.

The state didn't invest taxpayers' funds into it beyond the initial development prior to 1930 but rather, simply allowed it to create and expand itself. Any money the state did put in was repayable to Treasury at full commercial rates of interest but most of the money was raised elsewhere - Australian banks, financial markets including overseas and at one point directly from the general public via what were akin to term deposits.

To this day it's employees are not considered public servants and never have been. Legally it's a corporation owned by shareholders, it's just that the state is the only shareholder.

In SA I don't know the history in as much detail but bottom line is ETSA made a profit as a self-sustaining entity and paid dividends to government. It wasn't subsidised by taxpayers on an ongoing basis. Whether government ever put money in, without requiring repayment I'm not certain. Allowing it to use crown land to place infrastructure on was about the only real contribution I'm aware of however apart from government having created it in the first place.

That said, I'll argue that private ownership can certainly work with a different model to the one we have now. Most of AGL's history was as a regulated monopoly gas supplier in Sydney and it did that economically and reasonably effectively.

The issue today isn't so much who owns it but the focus having shifted away from technical matters or serving the public to that of what is effectively a financial trading operation. I say that being well aware that the volume of electricity traded financially vastly exceeds the physical volume generated - in other words the physical operations have become a sideline to the financial operations of the industry.

Now I'm not against financial trading obviously, this is a stock market forum after all and yes I do actively trade shares, but I'm not at all convinced that's a good way to run an essential service upon which the whole of society depends and where the externalities (environment etc) are of massive consequence. It seems more like the sort of thing that ought be run by a bunch of stereotypically boring and methodical engineers, scientists and so on calling the shots. Because doing it well mostly is number crunching, logical decision making, making sure everything fits together and so on. It's not supposed to be exciting - something's gone badly wrong if it is.

 

[mullokintyre]

The issue today isn't so much who owns it but the focus having shifted away from technical matters or serving the public to that of what is effectively a financial trading operation. I say that being well aware that the volume of electricity traded financially vastly exceeds the physical volume generated - in other words the physical operations have become a sideline to the financial operations of the industry.

The above scenario mirrors what happens in the "Water Industry".
The volume of water traded financially far exceeds the volume water available in storage.
There are a number businesses that have been set up purely as a trading mechanism to take a bit of the cash that moves around the market, market.
Far more money is made out of trading water than what can be made out of using it to grow stuff.
Mick

 

[basilio]

The Brady-Heywood Report into the major incident at Callide C power station in Queensland has been released and can be downloaded from here:

https://www.csenergy.com.au/ArticleDocuments/192/Brady%20Heywood%20-%20Technical%20and%20Organisational%20Investigation%20of%20Callide%20Unit%20C4%20Incident_Redacted%20-%2017%20July%202024.pdf

In brief (quoting from the report). Emphasis in bold is mine.








As for how much it has cost consumers, that's a hard one to put numbers on but bottom line is market prices, and electricity bills, have been higher without it than they'd have been had the incident not occurred. Because the replacement generation is higher cost plus the market impacts of less competition.

The latest plan is a return to service on 31 August 2024.

Absolutely xxxxing horrifying.. The parts you bolded about the inoperable automatic changeover switch are as negligent as anything I have seen in such a situation.

It seems these sort of maverick, dangerous actions were common well before blast off.

Safety concerns raised with power station operator years before catastrophic explosion, report reveals

Safety concerns were raised with the state-owned operator of a Central Queensland power station years before a catastrophic explosion led to major blackouts across the state, a damning report has revealed.

www.abc.net.au

 

[mullokintyre]

Good luck with this.

Students at UNSW are designing and building their own fusion reactor.

So if Kensington suddenly disappears in a fireball we will know who's to THANK.

Australian uni students pursue the holy grail of energy generation — a fusion reactor

A group of intrepid UNSW students are hard at work on a project that could solve the world's energy problems, but, as a joke among scientists goes, the technology always seems to be 30 years away.

www.abc.net.au

There, fixed it for you.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

The IEA is just not on the team playlist.
From Evil Murdoch Empire

The global use of coal is expected to rise this year, while nuclear power is expected to hit record levels in 2025, the International Energy Agency reports – a forecast that will likely be seized on by the Coalition as evidence of worldwide support for its policy to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
The IEA said global coal use for producing electricity is expected to increase by just shy of 1 per cent, following growth of 1.9 per cent in the previous year. The IEA said it had expected coal power generation to contract this year but while there had been declines in Europe – growth in Asia would see global usage increase.

While much of the increases in Asia were driven by strong electricity demand growth in China and India, the IEA also noted US coal-fired generation is also expected to remain robust in 2024 amid rising electricity demand and reduced coal-to-gas switching.

The findings underscore the global challenge of reaching net zero emissions by 2050, a pledge supported by nearly all countries, which the Opposition has said underscores its plan for using nuclear power.

Why are these countries not replacing their coal plants with renewables?
Cab they not see the enormous advantages of renewables?
Surely its not just because they have an idealogical poistion against renewables?
/sarc
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

The IEA is just not on the team playlist.
From Evil Murdoch Empire

Why are these countries not replacing their coal plants with renewables?
Cab they not see the enormous advantages of renewables?
Surely its not just because they have an idealogical poistion against renewables?
/sarc
Mick

Maybe we will end up the cleanest third world country, in the world. Lol

Then we will have to get the experts, to create a dome over us, so we don't have to breath the same air as those smug pricks burning coal. Lol

Hopefully the whole world plays to the same song sheet.

 

[mullokintyre]

Like a number of other countries, Australia has invested some significant dollars into renewables such as wind and solar pumped storage etc.
despite the claims that renewavbles are cheaper than fossil fuel or nuclear supplied power, the cost of energy just keeps rising.
From Evil Murdoch press

Households face the fresh threat of higher electricity bills after the cost of power jumped over 20 per cent in the last quarter amid a renewable drought and coal outages, with the price surge threatening to punch a hole in Labor’s promise to slash $275 from bills by 2025.
The cost of producing electricity across the national market averaged $133/MWh in the three months to June 30, 23 per cent higher than the same period one year earlier, Australian Energy Market Operator data shows.

Several states endured massive price spikes during the quarter, a separate study by the Australian Energy Regulator shows. Tasmania’s wholesale price soared 110 per cent or $71MWh compared to the same period a year earlier while Victoria jumped 45 per cent or $96MWh and NSW lifted 28 per cent or $41MWh. Queensland bucked the trend, falling 22 per cent while South Australia edged up 9 per cent.

East coast gas prices rose 19 per cent to $13.76 a gigajoule, the AER said, consistent with winter spikes where demand surges through the network.

The hike in prices was driven by record demand for electricity during the June quarter, which occurred at the very time renewable energy generation tumbled and Australia endured a spate of unplanned coal power outages.
AEMO chief executive officer Daniel Westerman said the increased demand stemmed from bitterly cold weather, but the toll was exacerbated by low supplies of renewable energy.

“On the east coast we have seen low temperatures and persistent cold snaps, especially in Victoria, which have driven higher morning peak demands through the tail end of autumn and the first month of winter,” said Mr Westerman.

“Extended periods of low wind have led to reduced wind generation output, which was down 20 per cent from last winter to a quarterly average of 2657 megawatts, with wind availability down to their lowest levels since Q2 2017.”

The increase in wholesale prices will not be immediately felt by households and businesses, but the jump will form a major component on the next default market offer — the benchmark price for annual bills.

The price spike also heaps pressure on Labor’s promise to slash $275 from household electricity bills by 2025, a key election pledge and central plank of the federal government’s Powering Australia plan.

Only a small minority of households and businesses are on the default market offer, as retailers typically offer discounts to entice customers, but higher wholesale prices will put upward pressure on bills when the default market offer is reset on July 1, 2025.

An increase in the default market offer would be a hammer blow to Labor, which has seen its standing with voters fall amid the cost-of-living squeeze.

Labor in May sought to sway disillusioned voters by offering all households a $300 handout to assist with their annual bills, a move widely seen as an effort to lower inflation and allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates.

Mick

 

[SirRumpole]

Like a number of other countries, Australia has invested some significant dollars into renewables such as wind and solar pumped storage etc.
despite the claims that renewavbles are cheaper than fossil fuel or nuclear supplied power, the cost of energy just keeps rising.
From Evil Murdoch press


Mick

These things take time. There is not a lot of new renewable installations happening as long as the approval process is so tortuous. It needs to be streamlined.

The thing that worries me is that the coal stations are being allowed to fall apart in the meantime and that we still rely on them almost totally in times of low VRE output.

I think maybe governments will have to take over some of these things and make sure they are maintained, because private owners are just going to let them rot and if the renewable rollout stalls we are going to need them.