The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

How does gas from here to Japan or Korea ?

Shipped as LNG.

The issue being that to bring it to the south-eastern states by that method requires ships, receiving terminals and the big one, storage to cope with the highly intermittent nature of usage required versus relatively less flexible LNG production and shipping.

That can of course be built but it has to actually be built.

NSW has a (privately owned) receiving terminal mostly built and the approvals are in place for one in SA. Rest still needs doing however.

Then there’s the issue of availability in the first place. Assuming we’re not going to rip the contracts up, Australia doesn’t actually have much gas. We’re just holding it until Japan, South Korea and China take delivery.

Related to all that is a question of how much is spent versus how long it’s going to be used. Financially it’s going to be hugely problematic to get any non-government entity to invest if they think it’s about to become redundant.

Eg for AGL etc to build a new gas-fired generating plant they’re going to want two things sorted out up front. One is the physical availability of gas to run it with. The other is that they’ll be allowed to do so.

That then leads straight to an uncomfortable truth. Any new facility committed to today is going to operate well past 2050 if it’s to be a worthwhile investment financially.

 

[SirRumpole]

Shipped as LNG.

The issue being that to bring it to the south-eastern states by that method requires ships, receiving terminals and the big one, storage to cope with the highly intermittent nature of usage required versus relatively less flexible LNG production and shipping.

That can of course be built but it has to actually be built.

NSW has a (privately owned) receiving terminal mostly built and the approvals are in place for one in SA. Rest still needs doing however.

Then there’s the issue of availability in the first place. Assuming we’re not going to rip the contracts up, Australia doesn’t actually have much gas. We’re just holding it until Japan, South Korea and China take delivery.

Related to all that is a question of how much is spent versus how long it’s going to be used. Financially it’s going to be hugely problematic to get any non-government entity to invest if they think it’s about to become redundant.

Eg for AGL etc to build a new gas-fired generating plant they’re going to want two things sorted out up front. One is the physical availability of gas to run it with. The other is that they’ll be allowed to do so.

That then leads straight to an uncomfortable truth. Any new facility committed to today is going to operate well past 2050 if it’s to be a worthwhile investment financially.

Sounds like we are stuffed.

Best way out that I can see is put an export tax on gas and use it to build the infrastructure and buy gas from OS and build more hydro.

 

[investor13]

Australia is a major exporter of liquefied natural gas, but massive volumes of production in Queensland are locked into overseas export deals, and west coast supplies cannot be sent east because there are no pipelines or gas-import terminals.

“So how do you get the gas to those plants that are only going to run 5 per cent of the time?” asks Wood. “Where is it coming from?”

you know if the Qld or WA got there way in the usual annual debate of becoming there own identity and succedded from the rest of the country and became there own sovigron country. they could then start exporting the LNG to Australia & possibly offer special discounts on its Gas supply in exchange for say "greens" & other people of similar charactoristics.

 

[sptrawler]

you know if the Qld or WA got there way in the usual annual debate of becoming there own identity and succedded from the rest of the country and became there own sovigron country. they could then start exporting the LNG to Australia & possibly offer special discounts on its Gas supply in exchange for say "greens" & other people of similar charactoristics.

There is no way that W.A or any other State could secede, will never happen, wouldn't make sense.

 

[sptrawler]

Shipped as LNG.

The issue being that to bring it to the south-eastern states by that method requires ships, receiving terminals and the big one, storage to cope with the highly intermittent nature of usage required versus relatively less flexible LNG production and shipping.

That can of course be built but it has to actually be built.

NSW has a (privately owned) receiving terminal mostly built and the approvals are in place for one in SA. Rest still needs doing however.

Then there’s the issue of availability in the first place. Assuming we’re not going to rip the contracts up, Australia doesn’t actually have much gas. We’re just holding it until Japan, South Korea and China take delivery.

Related to all that is a question of how much is spent versus how long it’s going to be used. Financially it’s going to be hugely problematic to get any non-government entity to invest if they think it’s about to become redundant.

Eg for AGL etc to build a new gas-fired generating plant they’re going to want two things sorted out up front. One is the physical availability of gas to run it with. The other is that they’ll be allowed to do so.

That then leads straight to an uncomfortable truth. Any new facility committed to today is going to operate well past 2050 if it’s to be a worthwhile investment financially.

Then you have the looney W.A Liberal Premier back in 2008, who was shouted down, because he was a right wing looney.

FW's led by FW's IMO.

Barnett, who was just another climate denier back in 2008, oh how we love to re write history, to fit the narrative.

Nothing done in the last 10 years say the loonies, weell what Barnett suggested was when Rudd first got into office.

Politics, you have to love it? Not
Lies compounded with lies to apportion blame, for poor decisions.
The next poor decision, regarding energy, will be the last one IMO, time will tell.

2008

Pipeline could supply east with gas: Barnett

A transcontinental pipeline could be built from the North-West Cape to link the eastern states with Australia's largest natural gas field, West Australian Premier Colin Barnett says.

www.watoday.com.au

 

[investor13]

There is no way that W.A or any other State could secede, will never happen, wouldn't make sense.

in theory would be a good idea!, to see those the clown world cities of Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne succeed with out the mining royalties

 

[sptrawler]

in theory would be a good idea!, to see those the clown world cities of Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne succeed with out the mining royalties

There was a very strong movement toward it in the 1970's, but in reality W.A is too big an area to defend and when the minerals run out, we will be dependent on the East Coast as we were before the mineral boom of the 1960's.

 

[investor13]

There was a very strong movement toward it in the 1970's, but in reality W.A is too big an area to defend and when the minerals run out, we will be dependent on the East Coast as we were before the mineral boom of the 1960's.

minerals wont run out as they havent even stratched the surface for many of them, iron ore, gold, gas, cobalt etc.....either way apparently climate change will come and flood WA again.

either way it would be poretty cool of WA or QLD comes detached from the mainland like Tassie did all those years ago, but over night and sailed away

 

[Smurf1976]

Sounds like we are stuffed.

Best way out that I can see is put an export tax on gas and use it to build the infrastructure and buy gas from OS and build more hydro.

We're certainly in some difficulty and it all comes down to failing to plan ahead.

Australia's acted like the lottery winner who lives the high life then ends up broke within a few years. Instead of thinking OK, we've found some gas so let's ensure our own needs and only sell any surplus, we've instead used it for quick cash and failed to consider our own needs.

I wouldn't say we're stuffed to the point of no solutions, but we've certainly passed up the best ones. Importing gas (or diesel) is certainly possible in a physical sense, but it's a far more costly means of doing it than we needed to have. .

It comes back to a fundamental difference in approach. Long term strategic planning versus quick cash. Boring engineers and public servants tend to do the former, politics and unrestrained business tends to do the latter.

Another way to put that is seeing the objective of utilities as supplying water, gas and electricity to consumers, considering the objective of housing as being for people to live in, etc, versus using these things to make a quick profit and to hell with the consequences. That broad way of thinking isn't unique to gas, and nor are the resultant problems - the energy and housing problems both originate from a very similar thought process.

 

[SirRumpole]

We're certainly in some difficulty and it all comes down to failing to plan ahead.

Australia's acted like the lottery winner who lives the high life then ends up broke within a few years. Instead of thinking OK, we've found some gas so let's ensure our own needs and only sell any surplus, we've instead used it for quick cash and failed to consider our own needs.

I wouldn't say we're stuffed to the point of no solutions, but we've certainly passed up the best ones. Importing gas (or diesel) is certainly possible in a physical sense, but it's a far more costly means of doing it than we needed to have. .

It comes back to a fundamental difference in approach. Long term strategic planning versus quick cash. Boring engineers and public servants tend to do the former, politics and unrestrained business tends to do the latter.

Another way to put that is seeing the objective of utilities as supplying water, gas and electricity to consumers, considering the objective of housing as being for people to live in, etc, versus using these things to make a quick profit and to hell with the consequences. That broad way of thinking isn't unique to gas, and nor are the resultant problems - the energy and housing problems both originate from a very similar thought process.

I can't add to that Smurf, you have absolutely nailed it.

(Proceeds to add ).

I think such things are a precursor of a swing to the Left in politics where people wake up to the fact that the masses are being dudded by the rich and powerful and its time to put essential services back in public hands

Not that I'm a great fan of the Left. If corporations had a public service focus rather than a maximum profit focus and provided services at reasonable prices to the public, I would say that's fine, but the free market is failing in a number of areas and it needs to be cut down to size.

 

[sptrawler]

I can't add to that Smurf, you have absolutely nailed it.

(Proceeds to add ).

I think such things are a precursor of a swing to the Left in politics where people wake up to the fact that the masses are being dudded by the rich and powerful and its time to put essential services back in public hands

Not that I'm a great fan of the Left. If corporations had a public service focus rather than a maximum profit focus and provided services at reasonable prices to the public, I would say that's fine, but the free market is failing in a number of areas and it needs to be cut down to size.

I haven't seen any indications the left want to resurrect the public sector model, any more than the right, they all seem to be just trying to deflect responsibility to anyone but themselves IMO.

 

[SirRumpole]

I haven't seen any indications the left want to resurrect the public sector model, any more than the right, they all seem to be just trying to deflect responsibility to anyone but themselves IMO.

Victoria wants to do it and Qld never sold their network in the first place.

 

[sptrawler]

Victoria wants to do it and Qld never sold their network in the first place.

Neither did W.A under Barnett, hopefully the Victoria State Energy Commission wasn't just a vote grabber, the last article I read I think said they are underfunded to do anything.
One thing for sure, Victoria is a basket case, how they are going to fund anything of a major nature, is beyond me.

The days of the left being for public ownership and the right being for private ownership are long gone, both sides are all for the politicians having minimal direct responsibility for anything, other than deciding how much tax to levy and who to give it to.

 

[mullokintyre]

Victoria wants to do it and Qld never sold their network in the first place.

Its all political talk and rhetoric.
Victoria will not get it done.
The state is broke already, the CFMEU will crucify any construction required to rebuild the SEC, and it should have been done twenty years ago.
I hate to admit it, but we live in a state that can only be described as a basket case.
Mick

 

[orr]

Australia's acted like the lottery winner who lives the high life then ends up broke within a few years. Instead of thinking OK, we've found some gas so let's ensure our own needs and only sell any surplus, we've instead used it for quick cash and failed to consider our own needs.

Lobbyist Winners Lobbyist winners.
2000 registered Lobbyists haunt the halls of parlinment house.

*The Minning Super Profit Tax .... quashed with few lousy million in propaganda. Cost to the Australian people Billion$?

*PRRT. An equitable Petrolium Resource Rent Tax (how many here who can honestly say they understand 'Ricardian Rent'? without having to google) .... Straight out Theft from the Australian people of how many Billion$?

*The Inerts so curiously left off the Timor Sea contract negotiations. Alexander Downer. 10 to 20 billion there by Clinton Fernandes estimate.

Lobbyist Winners .... Lobbyist and the lobbys they represent.
Christopher Pine, Peter Rieth, Ian McFarland, Bob Carr stepped into who's office post Premier NSW? Obied was an honest crook by comparison .... I'd go on but I'm begining to feel sick.

A near term Brown-Out here a Black-Out there a strangling of the Domestic Gas market. All wonderful distractions to these cancers on our democracy; things of little consequnce to be played to advantage.
So many renewables to 'white-ant'.
Renewables; The 'Elephant' in the mine scared, 'ornamented' I hear them cry, Landscape.

General Allenby(jack hawkins) character in Lawrence of Arabia had those great lines on Engineers whilst in Damascus.

'nailed it' rumpole... well yeah ... if you mean crucified .

 

[SirRumpole]

The days of the left being for public ownership and the right being for private ownership are long gone, both sides are all for the politicians having minimal direct responsibility for anything, other than deciding how much tax to levy and who to give it to.

That's why I'm talking about the future rise of the further Left which is for public ownership. The current "Left" are as you described, and are phonies.

 

[IFocus]

Lobbyist Winners Lobbyist winners.
2000 registered Lobbyists haunt the halls of parlinment house.

Sorry Orr you are wrong, I have it on good account the Voice was going to take over government and destroy it, all those lobbyists are just nice people bringing good ideas to government like selling off the power networks so the market could reduce prices due their so called higher efficiencies.

 

[orr]

Sorry Orr you are wrong, I have it on good account the Voice was going to take over government and destroy it, all those lobbyists are just nice people bringing good ideas to government like selling off the power networks so the market could reduce prices due their so called higher efficiencies.

Glad to be set on the correct path...
Who knows where things may have ended if I'd continued.
I'll get in contact with Price Waterhouse to sort my thinking out. That should do the trick.

They've just got back to me.
For only the cost of a 'huge fee' they are suggesting a Lobbottomist-ectomy.

mmmm ... now there's something to think about.

 

[Smurf1976]

That's why I'm talking about the future rise of the further Left which is for public ownership. The current "Left" are as you described, and are phonies.

If one takes a more philosophical view then the traditional utilities are everything the working class aspires to.

Traditional utilities are filled with practical doers and were absolutely aligned with the concept of mass employment, building up local industry and the economy, one size fits all, you all get a house in the suburbs and your own car, and so on. Everything the elites seem to despise basically.

There's a broader political ideology to all this, it's not just the technical side.

 

[mullokintyre]

From AFR

The $2.3 billion EnergyConnect project, a critical high voltage line connecting renewable projects in South Australia to the national power grid, has been hit by cost blowouts, delays and payment defaults.

The problems plaguing the cornerstone project have contributed to €70 million ($113 million) of losses for Spanish contractor Elecnor Group, and adds to major delays at other projects key to Australia’s energy transition including the $12 billion Snowy 2.0.

Why am I not surprised?
Mick