The future of energy generation and storage

[SirRumpole]

The experts will know all this, but this article exposes the bewildering array or regulators, consultants, advisory bodies and general busy bodies that have fingers in the pie of the energy market (electricity and gas).

About Australian energy markets | AER - Regulatory Sandbox

energyinnovationtoolkit.gov.au

No wonder nothing ever seems to get done.

 

[qldfrog]

The experts will know all this, but this article exposes the bewildering array or regulators, consultants, advisory bodies and general busy bodies that have fingers in the pie of the energy market (electricity and gas).

About Australian energy markets | AER - Regulatory Sandbox

energyinnovationtoolkit.gov.au

No wonder nothing ever seems to get done.

Look even our former Qld premier lady absolutely technically incompetent is now on the bandwagon and flying to China ..to tell them how they should move green power
All on your cash.
Rotten corrupt and dictatorial

 

[sptrawler]

Another problem is, the general public are under the perception that the problem remains static, so the Govt saying we need this amount of renewable energy solves the problem.
It doesn't our population has grown nearly 2milion recently and our power demand grows proportionaly, so the power we will need in 2030 is greater than today and we are already having trouble meeting demand.
Like I say, interesting times ahead.

 

[investor13]

They haven't retired yet, unlike Costello who somehow got himself a lifetime job on the Future Fund.

least he had a job in the real world of the private sector at some point! the three stoges are giving Biden administration for best clown show act

 

[investor13]

Look even our former Qld premier lady absolutely technically incompetent is now on the bandwagon and flying to China ..to tell them how they should move green power
All on your cash.
Rotten corrupt and dictatorial

maybe she is off to calk with Xi about climate and human rights policies

CO2 Emissions by Country - Worldometer

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions by Country in the world with Global share of CO2 greenhouse emissions by country

www.worldometers.info

 

[SirRumpole]

Here we go again...

Warnings grow of blackout risks in summers ahead as NSW looks at extending Eraring coal plant​

• In short: Energy market operator AEMO has warned delays in transmission projects and looming retirements of coal generators risk blackouts in future.
• Specifically, it noted delays to a transmission line between NSW and SA, and dumped plans to return gas and diesel generators in SA to service, had raised risks.
• What's next? The NSW government is in talks with Origin about extending the life of the Eraring coal power station, due to close in mid-2025.

The national energy market operator has issued new warnings of possible summer blackouts in coming years, due to delays in key transmission projects and looming retirements of coal generators.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has issued a renewed call for urgent investment in new generation and transmission infrastructure, warning reliability outlooks have recently worsened in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

The operator has put out an update to its 10-year outlook released last year, noting decisions to delay a new transmission line between NSW and SA, and dumped plans to return two gas and diesel generators in SA to service.

The NSW-SA transmission line is Project EnergyConnect, which is now expected to deliver full power from mid-2027 instead of 2026.

National energy grid facing summer pressures​

Much of the national power grid is facing substantial reliability problems over the next decade without rapid investment in both electricity generation and transmission.

Read more
It says those decisions have materially changed the outlook, prompting the new warnings for the years ahead.

In particular, reliability risks have increased in NSW and Victoria from this summer, while SA is also facing increased challenges in 2026-27.

AEMO plans to bid for "reliability reserves" to shore up the market in NSW and Victoria over summer, such as paying for additional generation or for large energy users to reduce demand.

AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said while there were plenty of generation or transmission projects in the pipeline across the grid, it was critical they were actually delivered on time.

"While new generation and storage capacity continues to increase, project development and commissioning delays are impacting reliability throughout the horizon," he said.

AEMO notes its forecasts deliberately do not consider a large number of publicly announced projects, even if they have been granted state or federal contracts, because they are not yet advanced enough.

But it says if those projects do substantially advance, they would significantly lower risks to the national grid.

Looming coal closure could be delayed​

One of the most significant looming pressures on the grid is the closure of Origin's Eraring Power Station near Newcastle, scheduled for mid-2025.

The coal-fired power station is the largest in the country, supplying a quarter of NSW's power needs.

The NSW government is already in talks with Origin about extending the life of the project but has ruled out a state takeover of the plant.

The cost of keeping Eraring open​

The NSW government is currently in talks with Origin about using taxpayer subsidies to extend the life of the plant in the state's Hunter region. It follows a review that found the state should discuss delaying the plant's closure to help prevent blackouts due to the slow building of renewables.

Read more
NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe said these warnings would factor into those conversations.

"There's a discussion about whether its life will be extended, that decision hasn't been made yet, but we'll be letting people know once those discussions are finalised," she said.

"Those discussions are underway and will be completed soon."

Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen said AEMO's primary forecasts did not factor in additional generation expected to land in the grid in coming years.

"The scenario in today's report where some key government policies are included shows a dramatically improved outlook on reliability — and this boosted outlook isn't even including the wider 32GW boost with our Capacity Investment Scheme," he said.

"There are projects scheduled to commence operating and meet energy demand this summer. With AEMO procuring interim reserves, we can be confident of ongoing reliability across higher demand periods, even if anticipated projects are delayed."

 

[qldfrog]

Here we go again...

Warnings grow of blackout risks in summers ahead as NSW looks at extending Eraring coal plant​

• In short: Energy market operator AEMO has warned delays in transmission projects and looming retirements of coal generators risk blackouts in future.
• Specifically, it noted delays to a transmission line between NSW and SA, and dumped plans to return gas and diesel generators in SA to service, had raised risks.
• What's next? The NSW government is in talks with Origin about extending the life of the Eraring coal power station, due to close in mid-2025.

The national energy market operator has issued new warnings of possible summer blackouts in coming years, due to delays in key transmission projects and looming retirements of coal generators.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has issued a renewed call for urgent investment in new generation and transmission infrastructure, warning reliability outlooks have recently worsened in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

The operator has put out an update to its 10-year outlook released last year, noting decisions to delay a new transmission line between NSW and SA, and dumped plans to return two gas and diesel generators in SA to service.

The NSW-SA transmission line is Project EnergyConnect, which is now expected to deliver full power from mid-2027 instead of 2026.

National energy grid facing summer pressures​

Much of the national power grid is facing substantial reliability problems over the next decade without rapid investment in both electricity generation and transmission.
View attachment 177315
Read more
It says those decisions have materially changed the outlook, prompting the new warnings for the years ahead.

In particular, reliability risks have increased in NSW and Victoria from this summer, while SA is also facing increased challenges in 2026-27.

AEMO plans to bid for "reliability reserves" to shore up the market in NSW and Victoria over summer, such as paying for additional generation or for large energy users to reduce demand.

AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said while there were plenty of generation or transmission projects in the pipeline across the grid, it was critical they were actually delivered on time.

"While new generation and storage capacity continues to increase, project development and commissioning delays are impacting reliability throughout the horizon," he said.

AEMO notes its forecasts deliberately do not consider a large number of publicly announced projects, even if they have been granted state or federal contracts, because they are not yet advanced enough.

But it says if those projects do substantially advance, they would significantly lower risks to the national grid.

Looming coal closure could be delayed​

One of the most significant looming pressures on the grid is the closure of Origin's Eraring Power Station near Newcastle, scheduled for mid-2025.

The coal-fired power station is the largest in the country, supplying a quarter of NSW's power needs.

The NSW government is already in talks with Origin about extending the life of the project but has ruled out a state takeover of the plant.

The cost of keeping Eraring open​

The NSW government is currently in talks with Origin about using taxpayer subsidies to extend the life of the plant in the state's Hunter region. It follows a review that found the state should discuss delaying the plant's closure to help prevent blackouts due to the slow building of renewables.
View attachment 177316
Read more
NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe said these warnings would factor into those conversations.

"There's a discussion about whether its life will be extended, that decision hasn't been made yet, but we'll be letting people know once those discussions are finalised," she said.

"Those discussions are underway and will be completed soon."

Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen said AEMO's primary forecasts did not factor in additional generation expected to land in the grid in coming years.

"The scenario in today's report where some key government policies are included shows a dramatically improved outlook on reliability — and this boosted outlook isn't even including the wider 32GW boost with our Capacity Investment Scheme," he said.

"There are projects scheduled to commence operating and meet energy demand this summer. With AEMO procuring interim reserves, we can be confident of ongoing reliability across higher demand periods, even if anticipated projects are delayed."

What a debacle..so imagine my horror as someone in firm knowledge that our CO2 emissions do not contribute to any global warming.
Even Greta should be horrified by the mess up

 

[sptrawler]

Here we go again...

Warnings grow of blackout risks in summers ahead as NSW looks at extending Eraring coal plant​

• In short: Energy market operator AEMO has warned delays in transmission projects and looming retirements of coal generators risk blackouts in future.
• Specifically, it noted delays to a transmission line between NSW and SA, and dumped plans to return gas and diesel generators in SA to service, had raised risks.
• What's next? The NSW government is in talks with Origin about extending the life of the Eraring coal power station, due to close in mid-2025.

The national energy market operator has issued new warnings of possible summer blackouts in coming years, due to delays in key transmission projects and looming retirements of coal generators.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has issued a renewed call for urgent investment in new generation and transmission infrastructure, warning reliability outlooks have recently worsened in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

The operator has put out an update to its 10-year outlook released last year, noting decisions to delay a new transmission line between NSW and SA, and dumped plans to return two gas and diesel generators in SA to service.

The NSW-SA transmission line is Project EnergyConnect, which is now expected to deliver full power from mid-2027 instead of 2026.

National energy grid facing summer pressures​

Much of the national power grid is facing substantial reliability problems over the next decade without rapid investment in both electricity generation and transmission.
View attachment 177315
Read more
It says those decisions have materially changed the outlook, prompting the new warnings for the years ahead.

In particular, reliability risks have increased in NSW and Victoria from this summer, while SA is also facing increased challenges in 2026-27.

AEMO plans to bid for "reliability reserves" to shore up the market in NSW and Victoria over summer, such as paying for additional generation or for large energy users to reduce demand.

AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said while there were plenty of generation or transmission projects in the pipeline across the grid, it was critical they were actually delivered on time.

"While new generation and storage capacity continues to increase, project development and commissioning delays are impacting reliability throughout the horizon," he said.

AEMO notes its forecasts deliberately do not consider a large number of publicly announced projects, even if they have been granted state or federal contracts, because they are not yet advanced enough.

But it says if those projects do substantially advance, they would significantly lower risks to the national grid.

Looming coal closure could be delayed​

One of the most significant looming pressures on the grid is the closure of Origin's Eraring Power Station near Newcastle, scheduled for mid-2025.

The coal-fired power station is the largest in the country, supplying a quarter of NSW's power needs.

The NSW government is already in talks with Origin about extending the life of the project but has ruled out a state takeover of the plant.

The cost of keeping Eraring open​

The NSW government is currently in talks with Origin about using taxpayer subsidies to extend the life of the plant in the state's Hunter region. It follows a review that found the state should discuss delaying the plant's closure to help prevent blackouts due to the slow building of renewables.
View attachment 177316
Read more
NSW Energy Minister Penny Sharpe said these warnings would factor into those conversations.

"There's a discussion about whether its life will be extended, that decision hasn't been made yet, but we'll be letting people know once those discussions are finalised," she said.

"Those discussions are underway and will be completed soon."

Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen said AEMO's primary forecasts did not factor in additional generation expected to land in the grid in coming years.

"The scenario in today's report where some key government policies are included shows a dramatically improved outlook on reliability — and this boosted outlook isn't even including the wider 32GW boost with our Capacity Investment Scheme," he said.

"There are projects scheduled to commence operating and meet energy demand this summer. With AEMO procuring interim reserves, we can be confident of ongoing reliability across higher demand periods, even if anticipated projects are delayed."

Still no plan B, and plan A is looking more and more like the muppet show.

 

[SirRumpole]

Florence the tunnel boring machine is stuck again, potentially stretching the project's completion date to 2028.

Snowy 2.0 faces fresh problems, with tunnel boring machine Florence stuck yet again

It is unclear when the machine will be able to get moving again and if it will impact plans for Snowy 2.0 to begin operations in late 2027.

www.abc.net.au

 

[qldfrog]

Florence the tunnel boring machine is stuck again, potentially stretching the project's completion date to 2028.

Snowy 2.0 faces fresh problems, with tunnel boring machine Florence stuck yet again

It is unclear when the machine will be able to get moving again and if it will impact plans for Snowy 2.0 to begin operations in late 2027.

www.abc.net.au

Lol
Or should I cry...

 

[SirRumpole]

The operating lifetime of Eraring has been extended by 2 years until 2027. (ABC Radio).

 

[SirRumpole]

Locals 'bitterly disappointed' as coal-fired energy station to stay open for an extra two years

The Eraring Power Station in Lake Macquarie will remain open for an additional two years beyond its original 2025 closure date in a deal between Origin and the NSW state government which could cost taxpayers up to $450 million.

www.abc.net.au

 

[investor13]

Lol
Or should I cry...

well it’s some 12 billion already over budget and several years behind!
The old DEI in full swing here

 

[Smurf1976]

Florence the tunnel boring machine is stuck again, potentially stretching the project's completion date to 2028.

Snowy 2.0 faces fresh problems, with tunnel boring machine Florence stuck yet again

It is unclear when the machine will be able to get moving again and if it will impact plans for Snowy 2.0 to begin operations in late 2027.

www.abc.net.au

Meanwhile in Tasmania:

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

If you look closely you'll see that's the access point for a tunnel. Only a short 1km at this stage which will come out here:

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

The canal and pipeline visible is the existing Tarraleah No.2 Canal which remains in service although that portion of it will ultimately be made redundant.

That's only the first step however. Ultimately the idea is to move the water about 16km east with a ~365m drop to the power station. Noting that by land, two thirds of that vertical drop occurs in the last 500m.

Overall it's a replacement of the existing Tarraleah scheme, in service since 1938.

Existing has a peak power rating of nominally 90MW and a constant power rating of 72MW. The difference being due to the capacity of the canals being limited, peak power being achieved by drawing additional water from a storage not far from the station.

No.1 canal here: https://www.google.com/maps/@-42.27...i16384!8i8192?authuser=0&coh=205409&entry=ttu

A more than adequate project by the standards of the 1930's, and at the time pushing the limits of what could be built with available resources during the Great Depression, but not really ideal by today's standards. Among other issues are the inflexibility of operation due to the canal length, and simply that it's all coming due for significant maintenance works.

So the idea is to replace the power station and No.1 canal with a new tunnel and 190MW power station next to the existing one. The existing No.2 canal and associated infrastructure being retained not as a bulk water transport system but simply for the various additional minor water sources it picks up along the way, it being used as a convenient point for the Derwent pumps to discharge into as well as picking up the flow from various creeks and so on. This water will be added to the pressure tunnel before the major vertical descent.

At present there's officially no commitment to proceed but as you can see, work's being done. Due to politics and the media being what it is though, being able to point to a section of tunnel just built and having every fine detail worked out before saying it's a goer provides an abundance of ammunition with which to shoot down the inevitable critics.

One of those details is, of course, how to best go about constructing the tunnel. Whilst a tunnel boring machine was used for one project in the late 1950's - early 60's in Tas, generally the approach has been just good old manual labour, drills and explosives and that always worked.

 

[sptrawler]

Meanwhile in Tasmania:

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

If you look closely you'll see that's the access point for a tunnel. Only a short 1km at this stage which will come out here:

Google Maps

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.

www.google.com

The canal and pipeline visible is the existing Tarraleah No.2 Canal which remains in service although that portion of it will ultimately be made redundant.

That's only the first step however. Ultimately the idea is to move the water about 16km east with a ~365m drop to the power station. Noting that by land, two thirds of that vertical drop occurs in the last 500m.

Overall it's a replacement of the existing Tarraleah scheme, in service since 1938.

Existing has a peak power rating of nominally 90MW and a constant power rating of 72MW. The difference being due to the capacity of the canals being limited, peak power being achieved by drawing additional water from a storage not far from the station.

No.1 canal here: https://www.google.com/maps/@-42.27...i16384!8i8192?authuser=0&coh=205409&entry=ttu

A more than adequate project by the standards of the 1930's, and at the time pushing the limits of what could be built with available resources during the Great Depression, but not really ideal by today's standards. Among other issues are the inflexibility of operation due to the canal length, and simply that it's all coming due for significant maintenance works.

So the idea is to replace the power station and No.1 canal with a new tunnel and 190MW power station next to the existing one. The existing No.2 canal and associated infrastructure being retained not as a bulk water transport system but simply for the various additional minor water sources it picks up along the way, it being used as a convenient point for the Derwent pumps to discharge into as well as picking up the flow from various creeks and so on. This water will be added to the pressure tunnel before the major vertical descent.

At present there's officially no commitment to proceed but as you can see, work's being done. Due to politics and the media being what it is though, being able to point to a section of tunnel just built and having every fine detail worked out before saying it's a goer provides an abundance of ammunition with which to shoot down the inevitable critics.

One of those details is, of course, how to best go about constructing the tunnel. Whilst a tunnel boring machine was used for one project in the late 1950's - early 60's in Tas, generally the approach has been just good old manual labour, drills and explosives and that always worked.

As usual an excellent idea by Tasmania, as opposed to the plan to reduce the capacity of the Marinus link, one would think it would be better to just keep increasing the hydo generation and develop the pumped storage options in Tasmania, to optimise the original Marinus link capacity plan.

As I said, from my humbler opinion, the whole transition is looking more and more like a back of the napkin plan, which is par for course actually.

Eventually when it becomes a unmitigated disaster, then the mess has to cleaned up, same $hit different day.

I have enough problems of my own, trying to help a 9 year old grandson, who is stressed out because the school is now trying to teach long division and they haven't taught the kids the times tables.
Brain farts abound in this new World, where we have dumbed the kids down and now we expect them to compete with countries like China, Thailand etc who are still using a tried and tested education systems.
How we turn this social engineering mess around is not going to be easy, 30 years of poor educational policy, will take some unwinding IMO.
Especially when the smug Canberra bred political hacks, don't even reconise their own limitations, as is being shown in the power sytem debacle going on throughout the whole country.

When you have the general public telling the Government, they are not showing enough measured reasoning and common sense, you know you have a real problem on the go.
Meanwhile the Govt's sit in an echo chamber listening to the vocal minority, a huge political backlash is well and truly brewing, situation normal, "great ideas, let down by poor implementation", happening all over again.

Australian voters back plans to keep gas on tap

The poll found that 75 per cent of voters supported a domestic gas reservation policy to ensure a steady supply of gas to households and businesses.

www.smh.com.au

 

[SirRumpole]

As usual an excellent idea by Tasmania, as opposed to the plan to reduce the capacity of the Marinus link, one would think it would be better to just keep increasing the hydo generation and develop the pumped storage options in Tasmania, to optimise the original Marinus link capacity plan.

As I said, from my humbler opinion, the whole transition is looking more and more like a back of the napkin plan, which is par for course actually.

Eventually when it becomes a unmitigated disaster, then the mess has to cleaned up, same $hit different day.

I have enough problems of my own, trying to help a 9 year old grandson, who is stressed out because the school is now trying to teach long division and they haven't taught the kids the times tables.
Brain farts abound in this new World, where we have dumbed the kids down and now we expect them to compete with countries like China, Thailand etc who are still using a tried and tested education systems.
How we turn this social engineering mess around is not going to be easy, 30 years of poor educational policy, will take some unwinding IMO.
Especially when the smug Canberra bred political hacks, don't even reconise their own limitations, as is being shown in the power sytem debacle going on throughout the whole country.

When you have the general public telling the Government, they are not showing enough measured reasoning and common sense, you know you have a real problem on the go.
Meanwhile the Govt's sit in an echo chamber listening to the vocal minority, a huge political backlash is well and truly brewing, situation normal, "great ideas, let down by poor implementation" happening all over again.

Australian voters back plans to keep gas on tap

The poll found that 75 per cent of voters supported a domestic gas reservation policy to ensure a steady supply of gas to households and businesses.

www.smh.com.au

I think a lot of the problem with the energy transition is the far Left ideology of the Greens who think we can just put in renewables and batteries today and everything will be fine.

They are destroyers of our standard of living as far as energy goes if they continue down this track, they badly need a reality injection stat.

 

[sptrawler]

I think a lot of the problem with the energy transition is the far Left ideology of the Greens who think we can just put in renewables and batteries today and everything will be fine.

They are destroyers of our standard of living as far as energy goes if they continue down this track, they badly need a reality injection stat.

Absolutely, the intention is great, but if done badly the ramifications are astronomic, both socilaly and economically.
This is where the fanatical ideology falls apart, our society as we know it is based on a secure afforadable and reliable energy system.
Let's be honest, even blind Freddy can see there is a problem, when athe green champion Twiggy Forrest is balking at building a hydrogon facility due to doubts about power supply.
The general public can see this, but the left are treating them like mugs, the result wont be good IMO. Snowy2.0 stalling again will have far reaching implications IMO.
To keep the "dream" up and alive the, politicians will have to invest more in supporting coal and using add hock batties, as the go to plan, which will all end in a mess IMO.
Meanwhile the load increases and the security of the grid looks more and more shaky.
Time will tell, but I can see this being another huge mess, who knows where it will end and what the end product will be.

 

[sptrawler]

I think a lot of the problem with the energy transition is the far Left ideology of the Greens who think we can just put in renewables and batteries today and everything will be fine.

They are destroyers of our standard of living as far as energy goes if they continue down this track, they badly need a reality injection stat.

Well even the media are starting to cotton on, at last.

What hope does Australia have at reaching net zero without WA dramatically upping its game?

If the country’s biggest mining and resources state can't commit to meeting an emissions reduction target, what hope does the Albanese government have?

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Sounds like the penny has finally dropped, well it isn't as though this wasn't predictable.
We have W.A paying Indian coal companies to supply coal to private generators and NSW paying coal generators to stay on line, activists trying to stop gas projects, Snowy 2 bogged down, Kurri Kurri way behind schedule, meanwhile Chris and Albo are smiling like fools on T.V.
What a fiasco, moving train wreck since the target was legislated, just dumb politics.

Warnings Australia's energy transition 'out of control' as NSW market quietly melts down

It passed largely unnoticed, but a NSW energy market meltdown has sparked warnings the energy transition is veering off the road.

www.abc.net.au

 

[farmerge]

The gravy train just gets better and better, once the snout is firmly in place.