The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

Dec 2021, now two years later it still isn't online and if several coal plants are forced to shut down prematurely, more than one Kurri Kurri will need to be built is my guess.

To put it into perspective, expected closure dates of other dispatchable plant in NSW within the next 15 years:

Eraring (coal) - 2880MW* closing 19 August 2025

Vales Point B (coal) - 1320MW closing 2029

Eraring gas turbine (diesel) - 41 MW closing 2032

Bayswater (coal) - 2715MW closing 2033

Wallgrove Grid Battery - 50MW closing 2036

Note that's dispatchable plant only, there's also a bit of wind and solar closing in the 2036 - 38 period, and I've only looked forward 15 years. Beyond that there's plenty more.

*Note that Eraring has now been slightly de-rated, usable capacity now being about 2820MW due to derating of one unit to 700MW and another to 680MW.

So all up that's 7006MW closing over the next 15 years in a state where supply is already extremely tight.

As for Kurri Kurri's capacity, AEMO presently has it listed as being 660MW (2 x 330MW) and it's also subject to significant limitations on operation as per my previous posts.

Then there's the 10,916MW planned to be closed between Qld, Vic and SA during that period.

Then there's the likely increase in electricity demand.

Then there's the risk of earlier or unplanned closures due to major failures or simply economics.

 

[SirRumpole]

To put it into perspective, expected closure dates of other dispatchable plant in NSW within the next 15 years:

Eraring (coal) - 2880MW* closing 19 August 2025

Vales Point B (coal) - 1320MW closing 2029

Eraring gas turbine (diesel) - 41 MW closing 2032

Bayswater (coal) - 2715MW closing 2033

Wallgrove Grid Battery - 50MW closing 2036

Note that's dispatchable plant only, there's also a bit of wind and solar closing in the 2036 - 38 period, and I've only looked forward 15 years. Beyond that there's plenty more.

*Note that Eraring has now been slightly de-rated, usable capacity now being about 2820MW due to derating of one unit to 700MW and another to 680MW.

So all up that's 7006MW closing over the next 15 years in a state where supply is already extremely tight.

As for Kurri Kurri's capacity, AEMO presently has it listed as being 660MW (2 x 330MW) and it's also subject to significant limitations on operation as per my previous posts.

Then there's the 10,916MW planned to be closed between Qld, Vic and SA during that period.

Then there's the likely increase in electricity demand.

Then there's the risk of earlier or unplanned closures due to major failures or simply economics.

It sounds like you are saying NSW is stuffed ?

 

[Smurf1976]

It sounds like you are saying NSW is stuffed ?

Bottom line is this stuff doesn't last forever so it's stuffed if it's not replaced before it falls in a heap.

Eraring's been running since 1982.

Vales Point B since 1979.

Bayswater since 1986.

Wallgrove battery is new, 2022, but batteries are inherently rather short lived. The lifespan is an estimate only at this stage but as an order of magnitude it's likely to be correct.

With the reality that plant exposed to high temperature and pressure, that is coal plant, especially when subject to repeated cycling, has a finite life. Slowly but surely that life is used up and a lot of it's now at the point where time's running out.

So it's simply an age and wear issue basically. It's either replace it or it's put serious $ into refurbishment.

I'm not a doom and gloom person but there's a very real mismatch here between the rhetoric and reality.

Total net supply to NSW from all sources during 2022-23 = 74,038 GWh.

Liddell (now closed) = 4980 GWh

Eraring = 13,295 GWh
Vales Point B = 6990 GWh
Eraring gas turbine (diesel) = 1.3 GWh
Bayswater = 14,108 GWh

So a very large portion comes from plant with a limited remaining life. What all the fuss is about simply comes down to the rate of replacement. It's certainly possible to replace it with renewables + storage but it's not being built quickly enough.

Rooftop solar = 6775 GWh
Utility solar = 5418 GWh
Wind = 6024 GWh
Total = 18,217 GWh

Wind & all solar combined:
2021-22 = 15,578 GWh
2020-21 = 11,982 GWh
2019-20 = 9648 GWh
2018-19 = 7472 GWh
2017-18 = 4789 GWh
2016-17 = 3860 GWh
2015-16 = 3467 GWh
2014-15 = 2397 GWh
2013-14 = 1678 GWh
2012-13 = 1397 GWh
2011-12 = 1151 GWh
2010-11 = 578 GWh
2009-10 = 38 GWh
2008-09 = 8 GWh
2007-08 = 2 GWh

So it's happening but not really quickly enough and, crucial point, we're now seeing a slowdown in new project commitments due to the issues with transmission, storage and so on. Indeed 2022-23 growth was significantly down on the previous year both in % terms and absolutes.

All figures above are NSW only.

 

[sptrawler]

A lot of articles in today's AFR, saying as we have been saying, that this transition and target are looking more and more scary and messy.

I wonder when the back hoe will be reversed out of the shed, to start and backfill the hole that has been dug, it had better happen soon IMO.

 

[sptrawler]

An interesting policy being introduced in W.A @Smurf1976 , I wonder if they are trying to come up with a plan to try and reduce the cycling of units?

Extra power credit announced for WA homes in 'hardship', with more than 9,000 households eligible

Excess power from Perth's rooftop solar systems will be used to help struggling families, with the WA government highlighting potential electricity bill savings of up to $500 a year for a household.

www.abc.net.au

Premier Roger Cook has announced additional assistance for some households, with free power being provided between 9am and 3pm to families facing hardship.

 

[mullokintyre]

Have we been conned again?

At least now it is going in the right direction.
Mick

 

[IFocus]

Have we been conned again?

View attachment 159463

At least now it is going in the right direction.
Mick

Mick out of interest was there mention how many units were to be sold at each price point?

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting play by Vales Point, obviously prepared to be available, if the price is right.
The Greenies are getting agitated.

Vales Point coal plant could stay open for longer

The owner of one of the largest coal-fired power stations in NSW may delay its closure amid concerns about the slow rollout of clean energy across the grid.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
Vales Point, which was sold last year by billionaires Trevor St Baker and Brian Flannery to Czech group Sev.en, is among the biggest power stations in NSW, accounting for 10 per cent of the state’s electricity needs.

The company said it was taking the “responsible step” of advising AEMO of its capacity to keep Vales Point running due to concerns across the eastern seaboard about the lagging pace of the rollout of new generation, storage and transmission projects required to keep power reliable and affordable during the shift from coal to cleaner sources of energy.
Loading
“Delta notes the delays being experienced by new generation and transmission projects, along with earlier closure dates being announced by owners of other coal-fired generators,” it said.
However, it stressed the notice did not amount to a commercial commitment to keep operating the plant until 2033.
“Broader engagement with major stakeholders regarding system and market requirements will be required before firm commercial commitments can be made,” Morris said.

Environmental campaigners on Friday said keeping Vales Point open beyond 2029 would make it “almost impossible” for NSW to reach its emissions-reduction targets.

Jacqui Mumford, chief executive of the Nature Conservation Council of NSW, said the coal-fired power station’s average yearly carbon dioxide emissions of 6.7 million tonnes was equivalent to more than half of the emissions of the state’s entire fleet of passenger vehicles.

“I call on the NSW government to rule out any support to keep Vales Point operating longer than 2029,” she said.

“In an era of increasing climate catastrophe, we cannot allow such reckless disregard for our future.”

 

[Smurf1976]

Interesting play by Vales Point, obviously prepared to be available, if the price is right.

For the record, in service plant is 2 x 660MW in operation since 1979.

Historically there were also 3 x 200MW and 1 x 275MW but those are now gone.

The Greenies are getting agitated.

My personal view is they're mostly well intentioned but collectively fail to grasp the concept that moving forward always comes at a price.

If we want renewables and we want it to work then bottom line is that comes with an impact. A different sort of impact yes but an impact nonetheless and we need to understand and accept that then get on and do it.

The scale of the task is such that we just don't have the time to do a 12 month community consultation over every single project before commencing construction. Do that and coal's going to be here for a long time yet.

Trouble is, any attempt to tell them that just results in a lot of yelling usually.

 

[sptrawler]

For the record, in service plant is 2 x 660MW in operation since 1979.

Historically there were also 3 x 200MW and 1 x 275MW but those are now gone.

Good size units, but they wouldn't be fun to cycling and getting they are getting a bit old for it, I bet the new owners will want some serious money to keep them available. ?
It sounds as though Vales Point is trying to gazump Eraring, in getting a supply contract, it will be hard now for the 'Green' team that bought Eraring to justify keeping it open to their shareholders.
The plot thickens.

My personal view is they're mostly well intentioned but collectively fail to grasp the concept that moving forward always comes at a price.

If we want renewables and we want it to work then bottom line is that comes with an impact. A different sort of impact yes but an impact nonetheless and we need to understand and accept that then get on and do it.

The scale of the task is such that we just don't have the time to do a 12 month community consultation over every single project before commencing construction. Do that and coal's going to be here for a long time yet.

Trouble is, any attempt to tell them that just results in a lot of yelling usually.

They are like everyone that rants and chants about being self righteous, they usually are also the first and loudest to complain, when the remedial action affects them.
The elites complain about the poor homeless, ask them to have public infill housing in their leafy suburbs and they faint.?

 

[SirRumpole]

No doubt our experts would like to comment on this.

The physics of coal power made Australia's grid strong. What happens when it's gone?

Coal plants have long provided intrinsic strength to Australia's grid. How to replace those properties is one of the big challenges in the energy transition.

www.abc.net.au

 

[IFocus]

No doubt our experts would like to comment on this.

The physics of coal power made Australia's grid strong. What happens when it's gone?

Coal plants have long provided intrinsic strength to Australia's grid. How to replace those properties is one of the big challenges in the energy transition.

www.abc.net.au

Afraid its very basic stuff controlling the system as demand varies and through fault conditions is well known engineering what is the problem is who pays for the hardware/ operates/ responsible for ?

 

[Smurf1976]

No doubt our experts would like to comment on this.

The physics of coal power made Australia's grid strong. What happens when it's gone?

Coal plants have long provided intrinsic strength to Australia's grid. How to replace those properties is one of the big challenges in the energy transition.

www.abc.net.au

All true - go back in this thread and pretty sure I've commented in system strength issues particularly in SA.

At present the limit is generally a minimum of two conventional synchronous alternators, that is conventional generating units driven by steam turbines, gas turbines etc, in operation at any given time to ensure adequate system strength. That in itself being rather extreme and only possible because of the 4 synchronous condensers added to the network.

A fairly common arrangement recently when the only reason to run conventional plant is for system strength, that is its output isn't required as such, has been to run the Mintaro gas turbine (90MW) at 30MW output and to run one of the Torrens Island B steam units (200MW each) at 40MW, those being the minimum outputs in both cases.

Any rotating alternator will do it though. Doesn't need to be a steam turbine and definitely doesn't need to be burning coal - could be steam turbine, gas turbine, internal combustion engines or a hydro turbine driving it. In SA we don't have any significant hydro but we do have steam, gas and ICE and various combinations of plant running are acceptable from a minimum system strength perspective. That being a strictly technical calculation as to what the acceptable combinations are - which to then actually run is down to economics, availability (eg maintenance or breakdowns) etc.

In terms of running machines for dual purpose, that is both for generation and separately as synchronous condensers, not all but a lot of the hydro machines in Tasmania are set up that way and it's straightforward to change the operating mode. Just requires tail water depression and all good now it's a synchronous condenser.

Going back the other way with hydro machines is likewise easy. Following chart shows the output of a machine at Reece power station (Tas) during a transition from synchronous condenser operation to generation. Note the time base at the bottom is in seconds:

So it's a pretty quick transition from syn con operation to generation. Maximum capacity of those machines being 119MW each.

Not all but some of the Snowy and AGL hydro units in NSW and Vic also have that capability to operate in either mode.

A complication in SA and indeed most states is that of ownership. ElectraNet owns the SA transmission network, SA Power Networks owns the distribution network, neither owns or operates generation with an assortment of companies involved there - AGL, Origin, Energy Australia, Engie / Synergen, Snowy Hydro*, Nexif, Infigen and on a very minor scale Lofty Ranges Power in the context of conventional plant then there's the various batteries, wind and solar facilities. So that split of ownership does complicate matters for any dual purpose use of facilities compared to places where one or at most a very small number of entities runs the whole show.

*Noting that in the SA context Snowy Hydro owns the Lonsdale and Port Stanvac diesel power stations and not hydro generation.

 

[Smurf1976]

Good size units, but they wouldn't be fun to cycling and getting they are getting a bit old for it, I bet the new owners will want some serious money to keep them available. ?

I don't know the commercial details of what they have in mind but technically they were the first of ultimately 12 almost identical Toshiba 660MW units installed in NSW.

First two at Vales Point B in 1979.

Next four at Eraring commissioned 1982 - 84.

Next four at Bayswater commissioned 1985 - 86.

Last two at Mt Piper commissioned 1993. The original plan was for four units, and the site layout has space for that, but only two have ever been built.

There were also plans drawn up for two at Tallawarra C but no attempt was ever made to build it beyond some reports being written and so on.

 

[sptrawler]

No doubt our experts would like to comment on this.

The physics of coal power made Australia's grid strong. What happens when it's gone?

Coal plants have long provided intrinsic strength to Australia's grid. How to replace those properties is one of the big challenges in the energy transition.

www.abc.net.au

As smurf said years ago, inertia is what carries the system through a fault.
I was talking to a guy today about exactly the same issue and I tried to explain that what the general public doesn't understand is that the system works as one, all the generators work together.
So the problem with renewables is, they are a massive bunch of little tiny electronic bits, that are connected together.
The difference is with a 100tons of rotor spinning at 3,000RPM(that's like twice as fast as your electric drill), if something causes a short on the system, it aint going to stop that 100ton thing spinning, now think about 30 of them spinning at exactly the same speed locked together, that is massive strength that's 3,000 ton spinning at 3,000RPM
.
So with that system made up of all these rotors locked together onto the system, spinning at 3,000RPM, if a massive hit happens you don't want the small unit taking all the hit, or it would just trip on overload and then the next one has o pick up that load as well and trips in sympathy and so on.

So if you have 100MW machines, 200MW machines, 500MW machines, 750MW machines, they all have to be set up so that they can take a percentage of the hit, commensurate with the size of the unit.

This is called governor droop and is set up so each unit takes an equal share of the load, but is comensurate with the size of the unit, so if you set the droop at 5%, the 100MW unit slows to pick up 5MW and the 500MW unit slows at exactly the same time to pick up 25MW.
Then we have quadrature droop which is where the units have to pick up the volt amp reactive current VARS, commensurate with their alternator capabilities, so that is another facet that the new minature micro electronic system has to cope with

Now when you have solar panels and really tiny wind generators, supplying small inverters, if the system takes a hit, those closest to the fault fry and then you get a fkn melt down as they take the highest fault current.

It hasn't been until recently that they have actually worked out ways electronically, to be able to share the load, actualy I think Australia is at the forefront of developing this, due to the situation of high renewable penetration in South Australia.
This is where the loony tunes have no idea of the technical difficulty, of keeping the lights on while trying to change over to an electronic based power system.
It is probably the reason Chris Bowen isn't looking so well, now that he is getting up to speed, with the six year brain fart idea. ?
This is going to take some serious money, or some really serious backfilling and some reality added to the equation, my guess is a huge dollup of all of the afore mentioned.
Just another great idea, let down by pizz poor planning, pizz poor implementation and great intentions.
If it sounds like a brain fart and it smells like a brain fart, there is every chance it is a brain fart.?
Anyone want a quiet punt on the side, that we don't reach the 82% renewables base load generation by 2030?
There must be some true believers out there. ?

 

[SirRumpole]

As smurf said years ago, inertia is what carries the system through a fault.
I was talking to a guy today about exactly the same issue and I tried to explain that what the general public doesn't understand is that the system works as one, all the generators work together.
So the problem with renewables is, they are a massive bunch of little tiny electronic bits, that are connected together.
The difference is with a 100tons of rotor spinning at 3,000RPM(that's like twice as fast as your electric drill), if something causes a short on the system, it aint going to stop that 100ton thing spinning, now think about 30 of them spinning at exactly the same speed locked together, that is massive strength that's 3,000 ton spinning at 3,000RPM
.
So with that system made up of all these rotors locked together onto the system, spinning at 3,000RPM, if a massive hit happens you don't want the small unit taking all the hit, or it would just trip on overload and then the next one has o pick up that load as well and trips in sympathy and so on.

So if you have 100MW machines, 200MW machines, 500MW machines, 750MW machines, they all have to be set up so that they can take a percentage of the hit, commensurate with the size of the unit.

This is called governor droop and is set up so each unit takes an equal share of the load, but is comensurate with the size of the unit, so if you set the droop at 5%, the 100MW unit slows to pick up 5MW and the 500MW unit slows at exactly the same time to pick up 25MW.
Then we have quadrature droop which is where the units have to pick up the volt amp reactive current VARS, commensurate with their alternator capabilities, so that is another facet that the new minature micro electronic system has to cope with

Now when you have solar panels and really tiny wind generators, supplying small inverters, if the system takes a hit, those closest to the fault fry and then you get a fkn melt down as they take the highest fault current.

It hasn't been until recently that they have actually worked out ways electronically, to be able to share the load, actualy I think Australia is at the forefront of developing this, due to the situation of high renewable penetration in South Australia.
This is where the loony tunes have no idea of the technical difficulty, of keeping the lights on while trying to change over to an electronic based power system.
It is probably the reason Chris Bowen isn't looking so well, now that he is getting up to speed, with the six year brain fart idea. ?
This is going to take some serious money, or some really serious backfilling and some reality added to the equation, my guess is a huge dollup of all of the afore mentioned.
Just another great idea, let down by pizz poor planning, pizz poor implementation and great intentions.
If it sounds like a brain fart and it smells like a brain fart, there is every chance it is a brain fart.?
Anyone want a quiet punt on the side, that we don't reach the 82% renewables base load generation by 2030?
There must be some true believers out there. ?

Good to see we appear to have an ABC reporter that has got things right.

---

 

[SirRumpole]

The future of interconnectors in Australia and elsewhere.

 

[sptrawler]

The future of interconnectors in Australia and elsewhere.

Great clip Rumpy and is definitely the way of the future, ATM in Australia cost is the issue from what I've read, no doubt that will change as the population increases and the financial base improves.
We already use it in the Bass link, @Smurf1976 will give us the voltage/ current details, no doubt.

On another non related issue, school holidays over tomorrow, so my spelling and continuity should improve.

 

[SirRumpole]

Great clip Rumpy.

Glad you liked it

She's a smart chick

 

[sptrawler]

Glad you liked it

She's a smart chick

Probably why politicians don't listen to her, they probably think she fails on two fronts, she's smart and she's female. ?