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The future of energy generation and storage

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Why has this occurred ? Rain clouds reducing solar production ?
 
SirRumpole said:
Why has this occurred ? Rain clouds reducing solar production ?
Click to expand...
Simple answer is hot weather pushing up demand and the available generating capacity is barely adequate to cope.

Most days Qld maximum demand is circa 8000 MW so the reduced capacity with the drama at Callide power station hasn't really mattered. Now demand's up, due to a heatwave, and it does.

Callide C station remains completely out of service following the catastrophic failure of one unit in 2021 and separate structural collapse of a cooling tower in 2022. Return to service dates are presently April for unit C4 (the 2021 major failure) and the end of June for unit C3 (the tower collapse).

Callide B station has 1 (of 2) units online at about 80% of capacity at present, so 40% for B station as a whole.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Most days Qld maximum demand is circa 8000 MW so the reduced capacity with the drama at Callide power station hasn't really mattered.
Click to expand...
Adding to that for those unfamiliar, it doesn't mean that normally we have too much electricity.

Rather, it just means that other (generally older / less efficient) plant that would normally only be run when demand is high has been used routinely in order to keep the lights on. There's an economic cost there but technically it works, it gets the job done.

So under moderate demand conditions the consequence of Callide's lack of production is economic. Other plant runs - costs more but that's it really. There's no impact on supply, just some changes as to where it comes from and the costs incurred in production given that Callide C is more efficient than what's being run instead.

Push demand up to maximum then it becomes a technical problem, actually running out of capacity.

At this stage it's marginal - if the forecast is spot on and nothing breaks then it works. But it would only take one breakdown, or for demand to exceed the forecast by just a few %, and there's a problem. It's uncomfortably close, there's practically nothing to spare.
 
And this period in our transition has only just started, the next five years should be very interesting IMO.
The miners have been put on notice, the power stations have been put on notice and the Government doesn't have much of its own generation, exciting times.
 
Well the reporters are starting to present the facts at last, finally the rhetoric is accurate and the masses are being brought up to speed.

They say electricity will be cheaper, but where the Govt gets the money from will be interesting and all the States have the same problem, except Tassie and S.A probably.

Power play: Can the Andrews government make the all-new SEC work?

If you believe the government, the publicly owned renewable energy generator will drive down prices and create tens of thousands of jobs. But how?
www.theage.com.au
By about 2035, and possibly sooner, the state’s power needs will be met almost entirely by a complex network of wind and solar generators dotted across the east coast grid, often in areas not previously connected to the state’s high-voltage transmission lines. Backup will come from vast arrays of batteries, hydroelectricity and perhaps some gas.
Among the new renewable generators competing to sell power will be the Andrews government’s State Electricity Commission, the result of a promise hatched in the lead-up to last year’s state poll as voters grappled with soaring energy bills.

If you believe the government’s rhetoric, the 4.5-gigawatt publicly owned renewable energy generator will not only drive down energy prices, it will help create tens of thousands of well-paid public-sector jobs and put power sector profits back in the hands of the people.
Transitioning from coal-fired to renewable energy will involve coordinating different sources of power across the grid to keep Victoria’s energy flowing in a predictable way. It will pose enormous technological, regulatory, financial and political challenges.

The pace of transition has been so rapid that the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) recently predicted that in three years there will be enough renewable energy available, at certain times, to meet 100 per cent of demand.

But with the system already under stress, questions are being asked about how the grid, built predominantly to syphon power produced in the Latrobe Valley to Melbourne and regional cities, will handle the rapid increase in intermittent energy produced by wind and solar. While coal turbines produce steady, predictable pulses of electrons, renewable energy is dependent on ever-changing climatic conditions.
Even under the flurry of existing and committed energy projects in the pipeline, AEMO’s modelling suggests Victoria will face power reliability gaps as early as 2024, with more serious breaches possible from 2028 onwards.

Woe betide the government that lets the lights go out.

For the Andrews government, the finality of the situation was hammered home by AGL’s announcement it would shut its hulking Latrobe Valley Loy Yang A power plant, which supplies about one-third of the state’s electricity, a decade early in 2035.

The State Electricity Commission mark II was as much born out of a political recognition – or perhaps fear – that the market alone might fail to provide enough renewable energy to offset the looming demise of brown coal.
Initially, there will be a taxpayer-funded investment of $1 billion, with the remaining cash to come from “like-minded” entities such as industry superannuation funds which, according to Andrews, will be focused on a fair deal for Victorians, not just profits.

Profits earned by the government will be invested back into the network as part of a 10-year plan to drive down power prices and reach the state’s ambitious emissions reduction targets.
Great politics it might be, but the announcement left a string of unanswered questions: will the new SEC, unlike the old one, be run at arm’s length from the government, with an independent board? Will it compete with other electricity sellers in the retail space to drive down prices? Or will it compete with wholesale providers of renewable electricity and make it less attractive for them to invest (the so-called “crowding out” question)?


How much will it ultimately cost? How much further might the idea be taken? What might those “like-minded” superannuation funds, which have a legal obligation to invest in their members’ financial interests, be offered as an incentive to chip in?
Above all, is the SEC really being revived? Or is this just a huge branding exercise?

The real problem​

There is a view among energy experts that Victoria’s problems have more to do with an urgent need to upgrade the electricity grid to allow the system to cope with a dramatic increase in intermittent wind and solar energy. The problem, as many experts see it, is not a lack of potential investment by new power generators, it is instead a reluctance to invest if the grid is unable to handle the new dispatchable energy.
The market operator recently told The Age that renewables with backup “firming” generation from batteries and pumped hydro would be required to replace retiring coal, meet emissions targets and keep essential electricity secure, reliable and affordable.

But such investments, including the SEC, will only be enabled by new transmission lines across the east coast grid. Both the state and federal government are moving ahead with upgrades to the grid. But will they happen soon enough?
AEMO has, for example, called for the construction of about 10,000 kilometres of transmission lines to better dispatch solar and wind energy to where it is needed.
It also says the equivalent of 40 large synchronous condensers, which act in a similar way to the turbines of coal-fired power stations, will be needed to stabilise the flow of energy from intermittent renewable sources.
It also wants a major upgrade of outdated computer systems that monitor and control the flow of power and an extraordinary 30-fold increase in battery and hydro storage over the next 25 years.
Will the SEC deliver all this? The government’s ambitions are high, but its explanations so far are sparse.
 
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Excellent article. In The Age of course, which I get delivered (old school).
No other media has the resources or the interest to let two reporters delve into it properly, particularly as its not in NSW. It's a worry that this is the case.
 
Knobby22 said:
Excellent article. In The Age of course, which I get delivered (old school).
No other media has the resources or the interest to let two reporters delve into it properly, particularly as its not in NSW. It's a worry that this is the case.
Click to expand...
Yes it is a good article, the only disappointing part IMO, is the fact that until now they have constantly said we have been doing nothing.
When in actual fact, we already are at the forefront of renewable penetration as a percentage of grid capacity and are actually having to design technology to integrate it, but are constantly being told we are laggards.
Self deprecation isn't good for for national pride, but IMO the Australian media lead the world in that field as well.
 
Well this was expected, the power station is already written down to zero on the books and the coal supply has dried up.
I'll be surprised if it runs until 2029, interesting times ahead in W.A. taxpayer funded transition, seems to be the answer.
Oh what a mess. ?

Australia's newest coal-fired power plant 'to be retired' before the end of the decade

WA's only privately owned coal-fired power station to close "before 2030" under plans that would bring the curtain down on the fuel's use in the state's economy.
www.abc.net.au
Western Australia's only privately owned coal-fired power station will close before the end of the decade, according to plans that would bring the curtain down on the fuel's use in the state's economy.
Bluewaters power station is Australia's newest coal-fired generator but the Australia Energy Market Operator has suggested the 440MW plant near Collie, 180km south of Perth, will retire by 2029.

The shock suggestion follows last year's announcement by the WA government that it will close the two remaining state-owned coal plants at the same time.
The market operator noted that under the Government's plans, state-owned power utility Synergy would shutter the 340MW Collie A coal plant in 2027 followed by the bigger Muja plant in 2029.
Problems at Griffin and its neighbouring rival, Premier Coal, forced state-owned power provider Synergy and South32 to take the extraordinary decision of importing coal from abroad to prop up local supplies.

They also prompted the Government in December to throw Griffin a multimillion-dollar lifeline in a bid to keep the mine operating and safeguard power supplies over summer.
WA Premier Mark McGowan and the State's Energy Minister, Bill Johnston, have refused to say how much money was handed over by the government, citing commercial confidentiality.

But, announcing the bailout, Mr McGowan acknowledged that little – if any – would ever be recovered.

"I suspect that these payments are payments we just need to make," Mr McGowan said at the time.

"Griffin Coal is not in a good financial position but we need to ensure that our electricity system continues to operate.

"And so, we will do that."

In answer to a query this week, a government spokesman suggested receivers Deloitte would not be allowed to use any of the funding to repay the huge debts owed to Griffin's creditors
"The grant funding is designed to help stabilise Griffin's Collie operations and provide certainty to the local workforce," the spokesman said.

"There are agreed parameters to the funding, which do not include debt repayments.
"The state government is working proactively with all parties to ensure a stable and sustainable Griffin that produces coal during the transition to 2030."


Suggestions that WA could close all its remaining coal-fired generation by 2029 have led to questions about whether the state can build enough clean energy capacity in time to replace it.

Bluewaters power station is notionally owned by Japanese trading houses Sumitomo and Kansai Electric, which paid $1.2 billion for the asset in 2010 when Mr Stowe's business empire collapsed.

However, in 2020 Sumitomo and Kansai wrote down the value of their investment in Bluewaters to zero as Griffin's woes and rising competition from renewable energy took a toll.

Since then, the power plant has effectively been controlled by a group of US hedge funds including giants Oaktree Capital and Elliott Management.
 
Looks like the first cab off the rank, with the new domestic gas policy, East Timor has less soveriegn risk than Australia, a bit of cause and effect happening.

East Timor makes fresh play for Sunrise LNG plant

The big difficulties for offshore gas project approvals in Australia should count in Timor-Leste’s favour when it comes to Sunrise, the head of the national oil company said.
www.afr.com
The ease of securing approvals for gas projects in East Timor compared with the escalating difficulties in Australia should help persuade Woodside Energy’s Sunrise venture to build a multibillion-dollar gas-processing plant there, the head of the nation’s petroleum company says.

The comments from Timor Gap president Antonio de Sousa came as Woodside and its partners in the Sunrise field in the Timor Sea committed to carrying out a fresh study into the viability of taking the gas to East Timor for processing, dropping their previous insistence that it must be processed in Darwin.
Mr de Sousa told The Australian Financial Review that East Timor offered an attractive project planning and environmental approval process, highlighting the comparison with Australia which over the past decade had struggled to approve new gas projects such as Santos’ $5.5 billion Barossa venture.

“This is something that is very important to consider,” Mr de Sousa said. He also emphasised the study would examine the “socio-economic” benefits to East Timor’s people from piping the gas there, as well as the geopolitical “stability” it could offer the region.

“This can only happen if the development of the Timor-Leste economy is secured,” Mr de Sousa said.
 
There's a place for these batteries but suffice to say they do carry an inherent danger. Water isn't exactly uncommon after all.


On the positive side, well should you need to unblock a drain flushing some of this down would be one way to do it. Maybe.....
 
This is a weird one, when I worked for Country Undertakings power generation, the Esperance power station was diesel, then later when the gas pipeline arrived through Karratha/ Kalgoorlie/ Esperance, it was replaced by gas fired station.
Now it would appear yet another new station is being built and they are going to truck gas from Perth, I wouldn't have thought that could compete with a pipeline.
I wonder if the pipeline will be completely abandoned between Kal and Esperance, or if it will be nitrogen sealed?

February 2022

Esperance residents given one year to secure household energy before gas cut off

About 400 Esperance households and businesses are given one year to secure an alternative energy source before their current gas supply is terminated. But with tradespeople and material shortages, will they have time?
www.abc.net.au
In 2020, the state government quietly approved an application for a new Esperance power station.

It then awarded a long-term gas supply agreement to EVOL LNG, which planned to truck gas to Esperance from Perth.

The move surprised many locals, as the old power station received gas through a pipeline, which also feeds a reticulated network that directly supplies 338 local homes and 41 businesses with gas.

The operator of this pipeline is the Esperance Gas Distribution Company (EGDC) and it also bid to supply the new power station.

Energy Minister Bill Johnston said the government preferred EVOL LNG's bid for a simple reason — it was significantly cheaper.

February 2023
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02...mmisioning-esperance-shire-deadline/101937852
The Shire of Esperance wants confirmation from the Western Australian government that a local gas network will be kept open until all residents have secured alternative energy sources.
State Energy Minister Bill Johnston last February announced the government had brokered a deal to keep a gas pipeline open until March 31 after its operators decided it would close.

The minister said this would give 400 household and commercial customers time to transition to bottled gas or electricity, with the government committing to pay the majority of those costs and replace appliances with new ones of equal value.

But recent figures from Horizon Power reveal that 35 per cent of those households and 85 per cent of businesses were yet to transition.

EGDC has confirmed it was still expecting to surrender its gas trading license and decommission the network on April 1.

EGDC announced it would close the pipeline after it lost the contract to supply the town's new power station.

The contract instead went to EVOL LNG, which will truck in gas from nearby Perth.

It expected five or six trucks would be needed each week, but in December Horizon Power said it was using about eight trucks a week.
 
This one's caused some amazement and amusement outside WA.

Not in the manner of having a go at the state but more as a truly ridiculous example of just how broken our overall national approach to energy really is, and that WA isn't immune from it.

(Note for those not familiar Kwinana is a heavy industrial zone about 30km south of the Perth CBD).

There's an existing gas pipeline already built supplying gas to Esperance and in serviceable condition. So we're going to stop using that and instead turn natural gas into LNG at Kwinana, with the cost and energy losses (and thus added CO2 emissions) of doing so, then truck that to Esperance. Now that's a 1400km return trip for each and every load for those unaware, it's not just going down the road it's about the same distance as Adelaide to Melbourne.

And just to rub salt into the wounds, the reticulated gas system in Esperance will be completely shut down (permanently) as part of the change.

Present: Gas-fired power station and a gas reticulation system fed via pipeline.

New: A new gas-fired power station using gas trucked in as LNG from 700km away and no gas reticulation. Consumers need to replace their gas appliances with something else (eg electric) or convert them to bottled LPG which will be separately trucked in also from Kwinana.

It does however save money and that's why it's being done. That said, well the money saving comes about due to cost shifting and accounting rather than a real, actual benefit of trucking LNG from 700km away versus a pipeline roughly half that length.

All comes about, as the ultimate reason, because it's done on the basis of 20 year contract. So a company builds facilities and runs them for 20 years to service that contract. Never mind that, with proper maintenance, the technical life of those facilities would be far longer than that. So it's cheaper in terms of the contract, but the nature of the contracts itself brings about some silly things and that costs money.

The now "old" Esperance power station is less than half the age of some of what's still being run in SA which is somewhat at the other extreme.
 

Transition worries grow as S&P assumes Snowy project delays

Standard & Poor’s says the government-owned generator may face a cash flow squeeze due to a likely drop in profits and cost increases at construction projects.
www.afr.com

Doubts voiced by Standard & Poor’s about potential delays to Snowy Hydro’s Snowy 2.0 and Kurri Kurri power projects have added weight to fears that the pace of Australia’s transition towards low-carbon energy this decade may be knocked off track.
Standard & Poor’s also suggested that “extraordinary government support” would be required through this period of high inflation and peak construction of Snowy 2.0.
The advice comes as Snowy Hydro is already battling to keep construction at the $5.9 billion pumped hydro storage project on course after the collapse of engineering firm Clough, the junior partner in the main construction contractor for Snowy 2.0. Earlier delays due to the complexity of the underground work, COVID-19 lockdowns and supply chain difficulties have also plagued progress.
The disruption in construction is set to be minimised through a takeover of Clough’s share of the work contracts by Italian senior construction venture partner Webuild.
Construction of the controversial Kurri Kurri gas power plant in the Hunter Valley has been hindered by flooding and an ongoing struggle to meet the federal government’s requirements for the use of green hydrogen at the generator, an issue that led to the departure of former Snowy Hydro chief executive Paul Broad in August.
The warnings from S&P contrast with the assumptions of the Australian Energy Market Operator that both Snowy 2.0 and Kurri Kurri will start up on schedule in the absence of advice to the contrary by Snowy Hydro. Any delays may exacerbate potential shortages of new firmed renewable supply in the National Electricity Market amid the accelerating exit of coal power units from the system, analysts say.

Separately, Moody’s said the federal government’s price caps on coal and gas were “credit positive” for some utilities but negative for producers of the commodities. The gas caps were passed by both houses of federal parliament last Thursday, while state governments are set to consider the coal price caps before the end of the year.

It said integrated electricity suppliers such as Origin Energy that partly rely on supplies of coal and gas from other companies should benefit, but that Origin’s partly owned Australia Pacific LNG venture in Queensland and Santos would be effected negatively because their revenues in the domestic market would be constrained.

Suppliers such as AGL would feel “no significant effect” on their credit quality where electricity generation is matched by customer demand or where coal is sourced on a “cost plus margin” basis.
 
sptrawler said:
delays to Snowy Hydro’s Snowy 2.0 and Kurri Kurri power projects
Click to expand...
I expect we'll see another power station's life extended past the presently announced closure date so as to keep the lights on. It'll just need someone (that is, government) to agree to (1) bail out any financial loss and (2) take the political heat over emissions and "shield" the company from any criticism by directing criticism straight back to the government. Got to walk the tightrope of activist investors and the media you see, something that gets a lot easier if you're doing it under the orders of government.

Second bit is, of course, negotiable if the first bit delivers a big enough profit to the owner. Therein sits the basis for negotiation - politics versus money.

But that said, well there's no denying that the overall trend with all this isn't in the right direction. There's a lot of running around in ever decreasing circles juggling things here and the options are fast running out.

For anyone who'd like to know a bit about the history of tunnel boring machines in Australia, the following explains it well enough. I've no association with the individual who wrote it from their own personal perspective but worth a read for those interested in some background (this long pre-dates the SH2 project):


In case anyone's lost as to the reason for mentioning tunnel boring machines, well no doubt that will become apparent.....
 
And of course there is always the vested interests lingering in the background. ?

Opportunity for Australia to become global clean energy superpower 'under threat'

Renewable energy developers and operators warn Australia's decarbonisation efforts could be derailed because of massive green spending plans by the US.
www.abc.net.au
The Clean Energy Council, which represents the renewable energy industry in Australia, said the vast scale of the IRA had completely changed the nature of the global shift towards decarbonisation.

In a deal that broke through years of deadlock in Washington over climate and energy policy, the US Congress last year passed landmark legislation introducing massive clean energy subsidies and buy-America provisions.

Known as the Inflation Reduction Act, the law includes $US369 billion ($529 billion) of taxpayer-funded incentives to turbocharge investment in renewable energy, electrification and development of clean industries such as green hydrogen.

CEC chief executive Kane Thornton said America's intervention had brought a sharper edge to the transition, intensifying the contest for the labour, materials and money needed to overhaul economies.
 
AS usual innovation in battery technology is moving right along. This seems a giant jump in making flow batteries cost effective. The improvement in cost efficiency is dramatic.

Engineers Reveal Flow Battery Cell Breakthrough​

By Brian Westenhaus - Feb 10, 2023, 2:00 PM CST

  • Georgia Tech engineers have unveiled a breakthrough flow battery cell configuration that could have huge implications.
  • The new development will reduce the size and cost of entire flow batteries.
  • This tech is sure to get lots better, and with this research showing a huge improvement, likely another wave of effort could come quickly.

Engineers Reveal Flow Battery Cell Breakthrough | OilPrice.com

Engineers at the Georgia Institute of Technology have created a compact flow battery cell that could revolutionize how homes and buildings are powered
oilprice.com



​

 
It will be interesting to see how the Collie coal situation ends up, the coal needs to keep running until 2029 apparently.

WA government offers $19.5 million bail out of Collie coal mine

The WA government says it has offered a struggling overseas-owned coal miner almost $20 million dollars to continue operations in a bid to protect the state's electricity supply.
www.abc.net.au
"Griffin has a role to play in supporting a stable energy system while we continue to transition away from coal-fired power generation," Mr Cook said.

"It is the McGowan Government's firm belief that Griffin Coal and its receivers should come to a commercial arrangement with their customers to pay a fair price for coal that will ensure longer term stable operations.

"Commercial parties have not yet done so, requiring the state government to take a proactive approach and seek a solution that guarantees stability of operations, worker entitlements, environmental obligations and a stable energy system.

"While ideally the government would not have to intervene in this way, we will not put the stability of our energy system at risk."
 
As I said a long time ago, the obvious answer for the World to go to clean generation and do it in a sustainable way, would be to supplement renewables with SMR which run flat out 24/7 and either supply the load or generate H2 when the renewables are sufficient.

Well it looks like Europe might be heading that way, the EU is set to grant nuclear energy an exemption under its rules for producing renewable hydrogen.

EU decision to label nuclear ‘green’ is key to energy transition and autonomy - Euractiv

With the recent European Parliament vote to include nuclear in a list of green investments, it is essential for investors to act quickly and support EU nuclear projects to ensure energy security, writes Timur Tillyaev.
www.euractiv.com
Earlier this month, the European Parliament made the historic decision to label investments in nuclear energy as green, marking a major breakthrough for energy transition and security in the EU.

Hungary calls to accept nuclear energy as a source of clean hydrogen - CEENERGYNEWS

While the importance of green hydrogen in sectoral decarbonisation is unquestionable, Hungary calls to acknowledge the potential in hydrogen produced from nuclear energy.
ceenergynews.com

A day after the European Commission adopted its long-awaited hydrogen strategy, Poland also announced to take some important steps regarding its own hydrogen agenda, by signing a letter of intent with the major energy and transport companies on the Polish market. Now Hungary also voiced its opinion on the holy grail of the energy industry.

“Hungary believes that hydrogen is indispensable to achieve climate neutrality by 2050,” stressed Péter Kaderják, Hungarian Minister of State for Energy and Climate Policy during the meeting of EU ministers responsible for research and innovation.

While the importance of green hydrogen in sectoral decarbonisation is unquestionable, Hungary calls to acknowledge the potential in hydrogen produced from nuclear energy.
 
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