The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Origin Energy doing the right thing and giving the buyers more time to get their money together, to buy the white elephant, I mean assets.

Origin gives Brookfield, EIG more time to finalise $18.4b takeover

Power and gas supplier Origin Energy has agreed to extend the deadline for its two North American suitors to finalise the deal.

www.smh.com.au

Power and gas supplier Origin Energy has agreed to extend the deadline for its two North American suitors to finalise their joint $18.4 billion offer to buy the company and divide up its assets between them.
Origin Energy, one of the largest Australian electricity and gas companies, last year opened its books to a consortium of Canadian asset manager Brookfield and US-based private equity firm EIG, which lobbed a $9-a-share takeover offer.

 

[Smurf1976]

Santos to close gas plant in WA amidst supply concerns

WA will have one less gas supplier from May when the Devil Creek plant in the Pilbara closes.

www.smh.com.au

Santos will soon close its Devil Creek gas plant, which last year supplied 11 per cent of the WA market, as concerns grow about the volume and reliability of the state’s gas supply.

And the overall gas situation in WA seems to be having some impacts:

Alcoa cuts WA alumina production as gas crisis bites

Alcoa has taken one unit offline at its Kwinana alumina refinery and Wesfarmers is relying on emergency gas in storage as Western Australia’s energy crisis worsens.

www.afr.com

Alcoa has been forced to reduce production at its Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia and Wesfarmers has resorted to emergency gas in storage

That's a really old photo though.

 

[SirRumpole]

A process is being developed that could easily turn sugar cane into aviation fuel , and presumably could also fuel gas turbines to generate electricity.

Sweet scientific breakthrough to fuel your jets using sugar cane

Queensland researchers say making sustainable fuels, cosmetics, solvents, and paints in Australia is a step closer after developing a way to quickly convert sugar cane into a renewable chemical.

www.abc.net.au

Also, using sugar cane waste for power.

Sugarcane pulp powers 30 per cent of this city's houses, could the rest of Australia follow?

The sugar industry has a proven ability to produce renewable energy, so why aren't more homes being powered by sugar?

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Santos to close gas plant in WA amidst supply concerns

WA will have one less gas supplier from May when the Devil Creek plant in the Pilbara closes.

www.smh.com.au

And the overall gas situation in WA seems to be having some impacts:

Alcoa cuts WA alumina production as gas crisis bites

Alcoa has taken one unit offline at its Kwinana alumina refinery and Wesfarmers is relying on emergency gas in storage as Western Australia’s energy crisis worsens.

www.afr.com

That's a really old photo though.

The Alcoa Kwinana plant has been holding on by its fingernails for years, it wouldnt take much of an excuse to close it, I would guess.
As will be the case for many process facilities.

 

[mullokintyre]

It seems that Solar farms are not getting the efficiency it was first hoped for.
From Renew Economy

Australian solar farms are having half of their output curtailed by grid congestion in some instances, with renewables bearing the brunt of over-capacity – even though their output is cheaper and cleaner than coal and gas generation.

A study by a team of researchers at the Australian National University involved in its Battery Storage and Grid Integration Program shows that solar and wind are bearing the brunt of congestion management in Australia’s main grid, with some facilities hit particularly hard.

Nearly one dozen wind and solar farms are being impacted on more than 100 days a year, while two solar farms – Molong and Manildra in western NSW – suffered losses of output of 53 per cent and 48 per cent respectively in calendar 2022.

Both solar farms are located on a part of the network known in the industry as the “line of losses”, which is emerging as an even more challenging part of the grid than the so-called “rhombus of regret” in Victoria that is the second biggest source of frustration and revenue losses. (See map below).

The ANU findings are contained in a submission to the Energy Security Board’s controversial Transmission Access Reform, which has led several peak bodies to warn that proposed reforms could bring new developments to a halt. The Smart Energy Council has branded the proposals as a “solar stopper”.


The ANU report highlights problems in the way the grid is managed, including in the way that AEMO applies so called “negative mic-pricing adjustments” to relieve congestion.

The report also cites the failure to give enough incentives for battery storage to help solve the problem. In some instances, when batteries discharge, the situation is actually made worse.

The article suggest that the problem is due to the AEMO and its costing allocation models.

Watt Clarity has issued an article using the above as a basis, suggesting that this is a simplistic approach, and other factors may be at play.

It’s worth, for a start, reminding readers of how Marcelle wrote ‘Not as simple as it appears – estimating curtailment of renewable generation’ back in June 2020. Something well worth remembering:

1) when doing this sort of analysis yourself; and/or

2) when reading of analysis by others.

As Marcelle noted in that article, there’s a couple different reasons why a Wind Farm or a Solar Farm might be curtailed, with three big reasons being…

Curtailment Cause #1 = Network constraints​

Marcelle wrote that these might include:

‘such as a transmission line out of service, thermal or stability constraints on the network, or system strength limitations applying to specific units or types of generators’

This is the one that (my reading of Giles’s article suggests) is the focus of the ANU analysis.

However it’s important to keep in mind that there are other causes of curtailment as well, such as …

Curtailment Cause #2 = Economic curtailment​

Marcelle wrote that these might be…

‘including the spot price being negative due to oversupply, or the cost of generation too high (e.g. In Feb 2020, due to extreme FCAS contingency costs that are paid by generators pro-rata on generation)’

Marcelle mentioned February 2020, but relevant to curtailment in 2022 could have been (for generators in South Australia) the high Contingency Raise FCAS costs in

Curtailment Cause #3 = Commissioning​

Marcelle wrote:

‘new generators must progress through “hold points”, limiting their output until AEMO is satisfied they’re ready to generate more.’

As we work through the following, best to keep all three of these potential factors in mind.

Other causes of curtailment​

In doing simple analysis for units operating in the ENERGY market, it may be that there are other reasons why they don’t achieve targets that their bid stack might simplistically suggest (e.g. lower targets in ENERGY might be due to ramp rates, or FCAS trapeziums, and so on).

Some heavy technical stuff, but worth getting yoyr head around it to see that simplistic energy generation statements should be treated with at a level of caution
Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

There's a lot of issues when it comes to curtailment of wind and solar.

Some are technical in the "actually difficult" category.

Some are technical in the "shouldn't have happened" category and can be blamed either on those involved or on competition regulations which prevented the various parties actually discussing it all before building. That being a key problem - economic ideology getting in the way of, and stuffing up, the technical aspects is quite an issue.

Some are simply driven by the market and again that's down to economic and political ideology versus physics and engineering. Nothing that can't be solved - but we need to want to actually solve it.

At this point those on the technical side of all this have tacitly conceded defeat. A disaster cannot be avoided indeed right now, literally today and over the next couple of weeks, householders will be receiving notice from gas suppliers about new pricing. Details will vary but we're talking about 50% - 100% price jumps here and that's going to outright smash a lot of lower income people.

It really didn't have to be this way.....

 

[basilio]

Renewables are marching on.

Record levels of renewable energy push demand for electricity from the grid to all-time low for December quarter​

Increased output from renewables, with a near-zero fuel cost, also nudged more coal and gas out of the generation market

• Follow our Australia news live blog for the latest updates
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Even with relatively calm days producing the lowest recent quarterly utilisation rate, total windfarm output exceeded any previous December quarter. Photograph: Russell Freeman/AAP

Peter Hannam
Wed 25 Jan 2023 01.00 AEDTLast modified on Wed 25 Jan 2023 07.23 AEDT

Milder temperatures and record levels of renewable energy drove electricity demand to its lowest levels for any December quarter, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Wholesale power prices also retreated during the period, particularly after the Albanese government imposed price caps on black coal and gas that are used to generate power, AEMO said in its quarterly report released on Wednesday.

“Electricity futures prices saw steep falls in the mainland states through to the end of the quarter” after the price limits were imposed on 9 December, said Violette Mouchaileh, an AEMO executive.
The average price of $93/megawatt-hour across the national electricity market (NEM) that serves eastern Australia was less than half the $216/MWh cost in the September quarter. Still, it was almost 80% higher than for the final three months of 2021.

Record levels of renewable energy push demand for electricity from the grid to all-time low for December quarter

Increased output from renewables, with a near-zero fuel cost, also nudged more coal and gas out of the generation market

www.theguardian.com

 

[SirRumpole]

Renewables are marching on.

Record levels of renewable energy push demand for electricity from the grid to all-time low for December quarter​

Increased output from renewables, with a near-zero fuel cost, also nudged more coal and gas out of the generation market

• Follow our Australia news live blog for the latest updates
• Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast

View attachment 152114
Even with relatively calm days producing the lowest recent quarterly utilisation rate, total windfarm output exceeded any previous December quarter. Photograph: Russell Freeman/AAP

Peter Hannam
Wed 25 Jan 2023 01.00 AEDTLast modified on Wed 25 Jan 2023 07.23 AEDT

Milder temperatures and record levels of renewable energy drove electricity demand to its lowest levels for any December quarter, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Wholesale power prices also retreated during the period, particularly after the Albanese government imposed price caps on black coal and gas that are used to generate power, AEMO said in its quarterly report released on Wednesday.

“Electricity futures prices saw steep falls in the mainland states through to the end of the quarter” after the price limits were imposed on 9 December, said Violette Mouchaileh, an AEMO executive.
The average price of $93/megawatt-hour across the national electricity market (NEM) that serves eastern Australia was less than half the $216/MWh cost in the September quarter. Still, it was almost 80% higher than for the final three months of 2021.

Record levels of renewable energy push demand for electricity from the grid to all-time low for December quarter

Increased output from renewables, with a near-zero fuel cost, also nudged more coal and gas out of the generation market

www.theguardian.com

Which begs the question, why are our power bills going up instead of down ?

 

[sptrawler]

Renewables are marching on.

Record levels of renewable energy push demand for electricity from the grid to all-time low for December quarter​

Increased output from renewables, with a near-zero fuel cost, also nudged more coal and gas out of the generation market

• Follow our Australia news live blog for the latest updates
• Get our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcast

View attachment 152114
Even with relatively calm days producing the lowest recent quarterly utilisation rate, total windfarm output exceeded any previous December quarter. Photograph: Russell Freeman/AAP

Peter Hannam
Wed 25 Jan 2023 01.00 AEDTLast modified on Wed 25 Jan 2023 07.23 AEDT

Milder temperatures and record levels of renewable energy drove electricity demand to its lowest levels for any December quarter, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Wholesale power prices also retreated during the period, particularly after the Albanese government imposed price caps on black coal and gas that are used to generate power, AEMO said in its quarterly report released on Wednesday.

“Electricity futures prices saw steep falls in the mainland states through to the end of the quarter” after the price limits were imposed on 9 December, said Violette Mouchaileh, an AEMO executive.
The average price of $93/megawatt-hour across the national electricity market (NEM) that serves eastern Australia was less than half the $216/MWh cost in the September quarter. Still, it was almost 80% higher than for the final three months of 2021.

Record levels of renewable energy push demand for electricity from the grid to all-time low for December quarter

Increased output from renewables, with a near-zero fuel cost, also nudged more coal and gas out of the generation market

www.theguardian.com

Amazing look how much more renrwables we have put in since June, what a difference 6 months can make, going from we arent doing anything to record levels. LMAO.

 

[SirRumpole]

Amazing look how much more renrwables we have put in since June, what a difference 6 months can make, going from we arent doing anything to record levels. LMAO.

Cynic.

 

[sptrawler]

Cynic.

I've lived long enough and seen enough, to qualify.

 

[Smurf1976]

Amazing look how much more renrwables we have put in since June, what a difference 6 months can make, going from we arent doing anything to record levels. LMAO.

For the record, annual second half (July - December) generation by source for calendar years as follows.

Data is for the NEM + SWIS combined but does not include the NWIS, Mt Isa, Darwin - Katherine or any remote area system.

Units are GWh

Solar (all sizes including rooftop)
2014 = 2172
2015 = 2908
2016 = 3617
2017 = 4021
2018 = 6756
2019 = 10,322
2020 = 12,519
2021 = 15,657
2022 = 18,311

Wind:
2014 = 5400
2015 = 6023
2016 = 6913
2017 = 7622
2018 = 8892
2019 = 10,482
2020 = 12,337
2021 = 14,355
2022 = 15,441

So I see nothing to suggest a boom, just ongoing growth indeed in the case of wind the growth has slowed noticeably.

 

[sptrawler]

The juggling continues in W.A, this situation will get worse IMO, someone had better come up with a long term solution until renewables can take over.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national...-bottlenecked-at-wa-port-20230126-p5cfro.html
Premier Coal and Southern Ports have been forced to stockpile thousands of tonnes of imported coal from New South Wales at Bunbury Port because of a lack of available trucks to take the electricity-generating fuel to Collie.
Two ships carrying 50,000 tonnes of coal each arrived off the Bunbury coast in December, but port congestion meant the first ship, the Pan Poseidon, wasn’t able to begin discharging until December 31.
The port expected the ship would depart in less than a fortnight with trucks taking the product 60 kilometres from the port up the hill to Collie, but the process ended up taking 21 days.

A Southern Ports spokeswoman blamed the delay on a lack of trucks and said the port decided to stockpile coal near the berth to speed up the process.
“The availability of road transport has been the limiting factor.
“This is being alleviated now through the approved use of temporary stockpiles at the port, which will greatly speed up the ship unloading process and reduce waiting time in the queue to access the berth.”
Bunbury Port is not set up for the importation of large quantities of coal, which also limits the discharge rate.

The spokeswoman said with two cranes operating at berth five a discharge rate of 500 tonnes per hour is achievable, but this was not always met for the Pan Poseidon.

Curtin University supply chain and logistics associate professor Elizabeth Jackson said she was not surprised to hear about coal import issues, saying WA importing bulk commodities was like “trying to drink through your ear”.

“Western Australia does not generally import anything other than containers, particularly bulk goods of anything really,” she said.
“In this case, we just don’t have the infrastructure to do this as efficiently as we export bulk commodities.”

 

[SirRumpole]

Does airborne wind energy have a future ?

 

[sptrawler]

It looks like the coal shutdown, is moving closer and quicker than expected.

BHP management warns Muswellbrook staff of uncertain future

The company behind New South Wales' largest coal mine fears it may have to close earlier than anticipated, leaving thousands of workers questioning their future.

www.abc.net.au

The company behind New South Wales' largest coal mine fears it could have to close earlier than anticipated, leaving thousands of workers questioning their future.
In a letter obtained by the ABC, BHP management told its 2,000 staff at Muswellbrook's Mount Arthur Coal that it might need to bring forward its impending closure.

"While I would like to avoid this scenario, the findings of this review may lead to a reassessment of our Pathway to 2030 plan," BHP's vice-president of NSW Energy Coal Adam Lancey said.
Mining giant BHP last year announced it was bringing forward the closure from 2045 to 2030 after being unable to find a buyer for the Mt Arthur site.

Mr Lancey told staff, due to the NSW government's "unexpected" announcement of its coal reservation scheme, coupled with the coal price cap, it had led management to reassess the 2030 plan.

 

[basilio]

This is an interesting play from an Australian company .

Aussie start-up bids for failed UK battery maker - and its $6.7b plan

Geelong-based Recharge Industries wants to take over collapsed UK company Britishvolt – and if it succeeds, it could be the biggest battery play in Britain.

www.afr.com

 

[basilio]

Recharge is building a battery Mega factory in Geelong. The US parent company has patents on new generation LiOn batteries. The intention is to process local materials.

Recharge Industries™ uses a unique patented chemistry known as bio-mineralized lithium mixed-metal phosphate (BM-LMP) to create battery cells. This chemistry results in fewer metals and less-toxic materials than comparable lithium cell batteries, making them safer and more environmentally-friendly.

BM-LMP

BM-LMP stands for Bio-Mineralized Lithium Mixed-Metal Phosphate. While Recharge Industries™ cannot disclose the exact metals in the battery chemistry, it primarily uses manganese and iron. The technology is a phosphate-based composite cathode that utilizes low-cost materials, molecular doping of lithium-rich bio-mineral in the super-cell crystal structure. The battery technology contains no cobalt or nickel.

Safety

• Batteries awarded high safety from the New York City Fire Department.
• Minimal risk of thermal runaway for cells.
• Low toxic profile, no toxic fumes or leaks.

Performance

• High energy density >200Wh/kg
• Superior cycle count compared to competing technologies >8000
• Demonstrated 85% charge of Li-ion battery in 10 minutes
• 100+ patents in 30+ countries
• Highest voltage on the market

Reliability

• Demonstration cells are made with commercial process, fully transferable to giga-facilities
• Rigorously tested and qualified supply chain
• Strict traceability of raw materials up to mine

Cost

• 20% lower cost compared to NMC and NCA technologies
• “No-Cobalt” lowers the bill of materials and operating costs of Gen 1 battery
• Battery manufacturing leverages cutting-edge digital technologies

Environment

• Primary energy consumption associated with the cathode active materials is a strong driver of the Li-ion battery’s environmental impact.
• Recharge Industries™ cells use fewer metals and less-toxic materials than comparable lithium cell batteries.
• Recharge Industries™ cells then lead to lower global warming, acidification, smog, and energy consumption when compared to other Li-ion battery production processes – New York Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) independent commissioned report

Technology | Recharge Industries

Recharge Industries | Using world leading artificial intelligence (AI) and multinational research partnerships we are finding ways to make batteries better, safer, and longer lasting. We are powering the transmission to a low emissions future by creating advanced battery manufacturing...

www.rechargeindustries.com

 

[basilio]

This is the story on the factory to build these new generation LiOn batteries.

Global partner engaged to build Australia’s first EV battery giga-factory​

• January 16, 2023
• No comments
• 2 minute read
• Daniel Bleakley

Recharge Industries Geelong Battery Factory

Recharge Industries has engaged global consultancy firm Accenture as its engineering provider to build what is likely to be Australia’s first large-scale lithium-ion battery cell production facility focusing on the electric vehicle market.

The facility, to be located in Geelong, Victoria, in the heartland of what was once a thriving auto manufacturing industry, is set to begin construction in the second half of 2023.

The company estimates that the factory will have a 2 gigawatt hour (GWh) annualised production rate by the end of 2024, rising to 6GWh in 2026 then scaling to an annual production capacity of 30GWh.

The company says it has already secured the equipment for the first 2GWh production line and that it will produce batteries for both electric vehicle and the stationary storage market.

Global partner engaged to build Australia's first EV battery giga-factory

The facility, to be located in Geelong, Victoria, in the heartland of what was once a thriving auto manufacturing industry, will begin construction in the second half of 2023.

thedriven.io

 

[sptrawler]

It will be great if the giga factory eventuates, once the financials are proven viable, it should lead to a surge in battery manufacturing here.

Now we just have to see if the factory is a business plan or a welfare plan.

 

[Smurf1976]

Queensland electricity supply looks extremely stretched tomorrow.

Forecast maximum demand = 10,726 MW at 17:30

Total available supply from all sources (including from NSW) at time of maximum demand = 11,128 MW

That's cutting it awfully close. It wouldn't need much to go wrong to end up with load shedding.