The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

Snowy 2.0 in the news, it sounds as though the engineering firm were walking a financial tightrope, as a late mate of mine once told me "engineering companies are only one bad quote away from oblivion". It's sad really United construction group a W.A based company went under a few years ago, over a solar farm cost overrun, it must be terrible for the workers and their families.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...after-white-knight-walks-20221206-p5c40t.html
From the article:
Snowy Hydro 2.0 builder Clough’s rescue has fallen over after its white knight buyer, Italy’s Webuild, pulled the pin on buying the company.

The South African parent of the Australian-based group appointed on Monday evening administrators from Deloitte to Clough, with the collapse of the builder expected to have ramifications for a range of major infrastructure and mining projects already facing delays and cost overruns.

Clough is one of the country’s biggest builders, employing about 1250 people in Australia and a further 1250 overseas. Those employees now face a nervous wait to see if the group can be salvaged from the administration.

Like many builders, Clough has struggled over the past 12 months as ongoing supply chain constraints and the increasing cost of labour eroded its profits and in some cases led to cost overruns on its projects.

Perth-headquartered Clough is the builder or preferred builder for a range of projects in Western Australia and overseas including the Waitsia gas project in Western Australia, Transgrid’s Energy Connect project and Energy Australia’s Tallawarra project, both in NSW, and the Stephenson Avenue extension in Perth.

Its offshore projects include the Lihir gold mine shutdown work for Newcrest Mining and building the Lombrum Naval Base in Papua New Guinea for the Australian Department of Defence.

Joint venture partners in the Waitsia gas project – Kerry Stokes-controlled Beach Energy and Mitsui’s local energy investments arm – said in separate statements on Tuesday that they had been planning for various outcomes including the scenario where Clough entered administration.

Clough called in administrators after Webuild decided it was unable to continue with the deal.

 

[sptrawler]

Like I said a while back, none of the coal generators will want to be left holding the parcel , when the music stops.
Best to get out early and jump into the low hanging renewable space.

Power giant’s $10bn bet may hasten coal exit​

EnergyAustralia plans to spend $10bn on renewables and storage over the next decade, a move which could accelerate the closure of its Mt Piper coal plant.


The early stuff is easy, it is when the surplus capacity is required, the going gets tough.?

It wont be long before the coal generators are forced to stay available, how they do that will be interesting.
Time will tell and they will be very interesting times.

 

[sptrawler]

And on the subject of low hanging fruit in the renewable sector, Twiggy swoops in and takes a bite. Hang on wont FFI and AGL require renewable energy to get the joint hydrogen plant off the ground? Maybe the output from these windfarms will be earmarked, still that leaves room for someone else to build one, to pick up the possible loss of generation if Twiggy uses his for his own ends.
Interesting times.

Forrest snaps up CWP to become dominant player in Australian renewables

Andrew Forrest’s Squadron Energy swoops in to buy CWP Renewables and become dominant player in Australian renewables industry.

reneweconomy.com.au

From the article:

Forrest snaps up CWP to become dominant player in Australian renewables​

Iron ore billionaire Andrew Forrest has swept in to snap up leading renewable energy developer CWP Renewables, beating out a series of big competitors and entrenching him as the dominant player in the Australian renewable energy market.
Forrest’s Squadron Energy, owned via his private investment vehicle Tattarang, has paid a reported $4 billion plus for CWP Renewables, beating offers from early favourites such as Spanish energy giant Iberdrola, Tilt Renewables, and Origin Energy.
The purchase of CWP follows Squadron’s previous purchase of renewable energy developer Windlab, the start of construction of the $3 billion Clarke Creek wind, solar and battery farm in Queensland, and the unveiling of a new 10GW renewable “super” hub in north Queensland.
Squadron says the deal takes its renewable energy operating portfolio to 2.4 gigawatts (GW) with an Australian development pipeline to 20GW.
The move by Forrest further entrenches the influence of Australia’s three richest men – Forrest and software billionaires Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar over the future of Australia’s grid.
All three are committed to a rapid switch to wind, solar and storage, with Cannon-Brookes taking an influential stake in coal giant AGL, and co-funding with Forrest the world’s biggest solar and battery project, Sun Cable, in the Northern Territory.

Farquhar has also joined the rush to green energy, leading a bid for one of the last listed renewable and storage plays on the ASX, Genex Power, although there are questions over whether that bid will proceed after problems at the company’s flagship Kidston pumped hydro project.
CWP is one of the biggest players in the Australian renewables market, with more than 1.1GW of operating assets, including the Sapphire, Murra Warra, Crudine Ridge and Bango wind farms, with a host of other wind, solar and battery storage projects in the pipeline.

Forrest has already talked – on multiple occasions – of becoming one of the world’s leading producers of green hydrogen, with an improbable target of producing 15 million tonnes a year by 2030.
But it seems that he now has growing interest in becoming the biggest player in Australia’s main grids, with a focus still on reaching 100 per cent renewables, and producing green hydrogen at scale, but likely for the domestic rather than the export market that is challenged by transport costs.

 

[sptrawler]

Like I said a while back, none of the coal generators will want to be left holding the parcel , when the music stops.
Best to get out early and jump into the low hanging renewable space.

Power giant’s $10bn bet may hasten coal exit​

EnergyAustralia plans to spend $10bn on renewables and storage over the next decade, a move which could accelerate the closure of its Mt Piper coal plant.


The early stuff is easy, it is when the surplus capacity is required, the going gets tough.?

It wont be long before the coal generators are forced to stay available, how they do that will be interesting.
Time will tell and they will be very interesting times.

A new nail in the coffin, this is getting weird.

Albanese asks states to cut coal price in half to tackle energy crisis

The federal government is scrambling to close a deal after asking the states to cap the price of coal at $125 per tonne – less than half the market rate.

www.smh.com.au

The federal government is scrambling to close a deal on the energy crisis after asking the states to cap the price of coal at $125 per tonne – less than half the market rate – in a move that has escalated claims for billions of dollars in compensation across the energy sector.

The proposal seeks to ease pressure on household bills next year but has galvanised concerns in NSW and Queensland about the financial impact on power companies, coal producers and state budgets that are due to collect more than $10 billion in coal royalties this year.

States push back on imposing coal price cap

States are pushing back against a federal government request for them to impose a coal price cap in a bid to drive down power bills.

thenewdaily.com.au

 

[Smurf1976]

A new nail in the coffin, this is getting weird.

Basic problem is that, since generation is a market, government can't intervene in the gas market without also intervening in the coal market.

That is, if they were to cut the gas price but not the coal price then that'll simply result in gas-fired generation offering lower prices to the market than coal-fired generation can. That then results in gas, including open cycle plant, running flat out with a consequence physical shortfall of gas supply across multiple states.

So short of intervening in the electricity market to prevent that, which would be complex indeed, a relatively simpler workaround is to drop the coal price thus maintaining a price advantage for coal over gas and avoiding mass fuel switching.

Where it gets more difficult is with diesel. There's not much government can do to lower the price of that short of outright subsidies. Now if the gas price is capped to a level below the diesel price then that disables the price signal for fuel switching at dual fuel plant and to run diesel-only plant in preference to gas. That's another route to a physical gas shortage - one that has no relevance over summer but will do beginning 5 - 6 months from now depending on the weather.

 

[IFocus]

I am confused how the states are demanding subsidies for lost of royalties for driving down the costs for their own states energy supplies for which they had a hand in causing the issue.

 

[SirRumpole]

Shortage of copper may hinder transition to renewable energy.

Some of the hurdles to a renewable energy future are obvious. This one isn't, but it could have a big impact

Analysts are concerned about the supply of copper, along with the actions being taken around the world to increase stocks.

www.abc.net.au

 

[wayneL]

Shortage of copper may hinder transition to renewable energy.

Some of the hurdles to a renewable energy future are obvious. This one isn't, but it could have a big impact

Analysts are concerned about the supply of copper, along with the actions being taken around the world to increase stocks.

www.abc.net.au

D'oh!

And it won't be just copper.

 

[SirRumpole]

The Grand Plan emerges...

Renewables providers to be paid to ensure stable electricity supply

Renewable energy providers will be paid to ensure stable, reliable power supply in a scheme signed on to by the states ahead of worsening forecasts of price spikes and blackouts in the year ahead.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

The Grand Plan emerges...

Renewables providers to be paid to ensure stable electricity supply

Renewable energy providers will be paid to ensure stable, reliable power supply in a scheme signed on to by the states ahead of worsening forecasts of price spikes and blackouts in the year ahead.

www.abc.net.au

Should that read you will get paid to for your nameplate output, whether it is needed or not? If so this is going to get expensive IMO.
It will be interesting, I wish we could make our own batteries. ?

 

[wayneL]

I wish we could make our own batteries. ?

Talking to an ex client of mine in Queensland who is in the solar industry. The markup on the hardware is absolutely astonishing. She is making 8-10 a week as a rep for residential installations ?

Considering the skills and knowledge I need for my job I now feel drastically underpaid, but the overarching point is that we are getting touched up for solar systems and batteries.

 

[IFocus]

Talking to an ex client of mine in Queensland who is in the solar industry. The markup on the hardware is absolutely astonishing. She is making 8-10 a week as a rep for residential installations ?

Considering the skills and knowledge I need for my job I now feel drastically underpaid, but the overarching point is that we are getting touched up for solar systems and batteries.

Yep long been the case depending on quality of panel and inverters having said that over 200 company's have gone broke or folded in WA so be careful of those cheap quotes against long term installers.

 

[wayneL]

Yep long been the case depending on quality of panel and inverters having said that over 200 company's have gone broke or folded in WA so be careful of those cheap quotes against long term installers.

She did say that "WA is where solar companies goes to die".

 

[Sean K]

 

[sptrawler]

An article on the state of play and confirms @Smurf1976 analysis on price interactions.

Options for fixing Australia's energy mess

The Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood has continued his mea culpa on energy market intervention. In 2015, Wood said “governments should resist self-interested calls from some industries to cap prices or reserve gas for the domestic market”. He also said “Western Australia should go further, and end...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

W.A is in as much manure as the East Coast. The down side of getting ahead of the curve, make coal unviable, before you have a viable option installed, magic, just pure magic.?
I think Mark is going to have to tap Kerry on the shoulder, for a bit of hand, digging up some coal.

'The situation is not pretty': Fears WA power users are in for white-knuckle ride this summer

On a warmish evening across Perth and southern WA recently, something happened to make Andy Wearmouth feel very uncomfortable, while just about everybody else in the state remained blissfully ignorant.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

OMG, reality kicks in, FFS I'm popular, we have a VISION, "Chris WTF are you? Jim, Jim, where's the cheque book. ?

East coast gas supply pact at risk as price controls loom

An emergency plan to cap gas prices is threatening to shatter a deal between gas exporters and the Albanese government to avert domestic shortfalls.

www.smh.com.au

Global energy supermajor Shell has suspended its role in a landmark gas supply deal designed to prevent shortfalls on the east coast next year as it assesses the impact of the Albanese government’s plan to cap fossil fuel prices.
Queensland’s three LNG exporters – Shell’s QCLNG joint venture, Origin Energy-backed APLNG and Santos’ GLNG – are set to hold talks this week to determine whether their September agreement to supply 157 petajoules of gas – about 25 per cent of annual east coast demand – can go ahead after the government announced a series of interventions in the energy market.
The government last week announced a series of initiatives designed to reduce soaring power bills. They include temporary price limits of $12 a gigajoule on uncontracted wholesale gas and $125 a tonne on coal, and powers to influence the price of gas contracts beyond next year. The proposals have sparked a furious response from gas producers, and analysts have described the initiatives as a “declaration of war” on the industry.
In September, a “heads of agreement” between the three LNG exporters and the federal government was struck in response to the national consumer watchdog’s forecast of 56-petajoule east-coast shortfall next year. But that deal had been agreed on the premise the gas would be made available at market prices, not regulated prices.

“The circumstances have changed, and we are all trying to work out what happens now,” said an industry source, not authorised to speak publicly about the matter.

 

[SirRumpole]

Another small step for nuclear fusion.

US scientists make major scientific breakthrough in nuclear fusion

For the first time, researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California produce more energy in a fusion reaction than was used to ignite it, a development officials say will "go down in the history books".

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

Well the situation just went from bad to worse, apparently no one told the gas companies, the domestic gas that they were going to forward sell now will have a political price cap on it. ?
Chris and the crew got the napkin out and worked out what it is worth, I bet the shovel is out, to back fill the hole.

Gas market grinds to halt as Woodside, Shell suspend sales talks

Woodside and Shell abort gas sales processes for east coast supply after proposed intervention labelled by some as ‘vandalism’.

www.afr.com

From the article:
Woodside Energy has joined Shell and other east coast gas suppliers in calling off talks with customers for new supply contracts in the wake of the government’s plan to permanently control prices, increasing uncertainty over the level of gas available for manufacturing and power generation in the years ahead.

The stalling of the gas market came as Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill urged the federal government to rethink its proposed gas market intervention, warning the shock plan risks energy rationing and power shortages, and would cost investment and jobs.

It came as Woodside, which supplies 20 per cent of the east coast domestic market from its Bass Strait fields, confirmed it has suspended a process to sell 50 petajoules of gas over 2024 and 2025, which had attracted more than 20 buyers.

 

[SirRumpole]

The stalling of the gas market came as Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill urged the federal government to rethink its proposed gas market intervention, warning the shock plan risks energy rationing and power shortages, and would cost investment and jobs.

Yes, they always say that.

Next.