The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

Newcastle ?

Key requirements:

Connected to a power system large enough that failure or intermittent operation of this facility is inconsequential.

Location has available support from engineering, construction, fabrication etc industries.

Cheaper to locate at an existing substation (or an existing power station) to save costs.

Should be accessible for visits by engineers and other professionals, politicians, media and public for both education and promotion purposes once it’s all sorted out.

Given the cost is mostly upfront not ongoing, once it’s done it logically remains as a permanent facility, albeit one that was an experiment when first commenced. So the location should be one where it has ongoing value.

Putting all that together I’m thinking anywhere within reasonable distance of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne or Adelaide.

Only reason to not pick Perth is distance from anywhere else.

Reason to not pick Tasmania is lack of ongoing value in a state with an existing major hydro system. Plus a much more limited support base of industries etc.

NT not an option as the power system is too small to comfortably withstand having an experimental power station as part of it. If it goes wrong then it could end up blacking out Darwin so not a good idea. NT would however be a good place for it once the tech is fully sorted out and reliable given that gas turbines are presently the majority of installed generating capacity.

So Newcastle is pretty close, it doesn’t have any major flaws given proximity to Sydney plus it’s own existing industries and support base.

 

[macca]

Key requirements:

Connected to a power system large enough that failure or intermittent operation of this facility is inconsequential.

Location has available support from engineering, construction, fabrication etc industries.

Cheaper to locate at an existing substation (or an existing power station) to save costs.

Should be accessible for visits by engineers and other professionals, politicians, media and public for both education and promotion purposes once it’s all sorted out.

Given the cost is mostly upfront not ongoing, once it’s done it logically remains as a permanent facility, albeit one that was an experiment when first commenced. So the location should be one where it has ongoing value.

Putting all that together I’m thinking anywhere within reasonable distance of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne or Adelaide.

Only reason to not pick Perth is distance from anywhere else.

Reason to not pick Tasmania is lack of ongoing value in a state with an existing major hydro system. Plus a much more limited support base of industries etc.

NT not an option as the power system is too small to comfortably withstand having an experimental power station as part of it. If it goes wrong then it could end up blacking out Darwin so not a good idea. NT would however be a good place for it once the tech is fully sorted out and reliable given that gas turbines are presently the majority of installed generating capacity.

So Newcastle is pretty close, it doesn’t have any major flaws given proximity to Sydney plus it’s own existing industries and support base.

Kurri is 20mins from Newcastle by dual lane highway but Kurri would actually be closer to Sydney than Ncle is to Sydney.

Because of the previous industrial base in the Hunter area, there are high voltage power lines all over the place, it would be very simple to plug into the grid.

Maybe they could put a small one at the Tomago smelter, just put the power straight into there and test it out fully.

Should the smelter decide to close then they simply feed it into the grid in reverse and it flows along the existing lines.

 

[Smurf1976]

Kurri is 20mins from Newcastle by dual lane highway but Kurri would actually be closer to Sydney than Ncle is to Sydney.

For my suggested developmental plant, at 30MW scale, two locations come immediately to mind.

One is here: https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-32.8121524,151.7300895,1317m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en

The facility shown there is the Newcastle gas storage owned by AGL. On site is an existing natural gas connection of decent capacity, plus of course the stored gas (as LNG) in that tank, plus it's less than 1km from the existing Tomago Aluminium smelter which has a very high capacity connection to the electricity grid.

The other is this general area: https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-34.7860483,138.507121,5150m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en

This is the outskirts of metropolitan Adelaide and present in the area covered by that image are the existing Pelican Point, Snapper Point, Osborne, Quarantine, Barker Inlet and Torrens Island B power stations along with the now closed Torrens Island A station. Also present are both major SA gas pipelines, that being the Moomba - Adelaide and Port Campbell - Adelaide pipelines, and it's a strong point for the existing SA transmission system. There are various parcels of unused land, including right next to the existing generation facilities.

Either of those tick the boxes. They're near a city, existing electricity and gas is there, there's unused land available, there's a supporting industrial base and so on. They're not the only such places but they're two that tick the boxes as a possible site for a hydrogen project to develop and test the technology at a modest but "real" scale, sort out the issues and so on before applying at scale elsewhere.

 

[orr]

​

A Solar Firm Plans to Build Off-Grid Neighborhoods in California.​

A Solar Firm Plans to Build Off-Grid Neighborhoods in California (Published 2022)

Sunnova Energy is seeking permission from state regulators to develop microgrids for new housing developments that would not be reliant on established electric utilities.

www.nytimes.com

The future is already here; it just not evenly distributed.

(my current subscription to NYT costs $2/month)

 

[noirua]

Just for a bit of fun you can fill in this information about your monthly gas and electricity bill and find out what you would be paying in the UK from October 1.
It doesn't work quite the same in the UK, but anyway, a clever person can adapt:

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-are-the-price-cap-unit-rates-/?utm_source=MSE_Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=30-Aug-22-d139e26fb06417bab7a-630e686e7be982cbc9a788c00e79b024&source=CRM-MSETIP-d139e26fb06417bab7a&utm_campaign=nt-hiya&utm_content=6&fbclid=IwAR0cN60OydFAU17rkw0Pdf9y4igYLLU-HyVI3Ytu-juKcNgm_lhm9eG6ov8#tool

The UK and Europe are in terrible trouble with some care and nursing homes seeing estimates rising up to 11 times. I am in the UK but have a 3 year fixed plan so will not pay one penny more until August 2024. Also I have solar panels. It all seems an unfair system as some lost their fixed plans as so many companies went bust. The government is giving money to the gas and electricity suppliers to knock off bills from October. So my early workings are that they will be paying me to use gas and electricity. It is chaos and madness with no real Prime Minister for 7 weeks.

Social care faces collapse as soaring energy prices push up costs almost tenfold, experts warn

Care England chief said energy crisis poses "a very severe risk" to the sector unless Government steps in with "immediate and targeted" support.

inews.co.uk

 

[SirRumpole]

Just for a bit of fun you can fill in this information about your monthly gas and electricity bill and find out what you would be paying in the UK from October 1.
It doesn't work quite the same in the UK, but anyway, a clever person can adapt:

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/what-are-the-price-cap-unit-rates-/?utm_source=MSE_Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=30-Aug-22-d139e26fb06417bab7a-630e686e7be982cbc9a788c00e79b024&source=CRM-MSETIP-d139e26fb06417bab7a&utm_campaign=nt-hiya&utm_content=6&fbclid=IwAR0cN60OydFAU17rkw0Pdf9y4igYLLU-HyVI3Ytu-juKcNgm_lhm9eG6ov8#tool

The UK and Europe are in terrible trouble with some care and nursing homes seeing estimates rising up to 11 times. I am in the UK but have a 3 year fixed plan so will not pay one penny more until August 2024. Also I have solar panels. It all seems an unfair system as some lost their fixed plans as so many companies went bust. The government is giving money to the gas and electricity suppliers to knock off bills from October. So my early workings are that they will be paying me to use gas and electricity. It is chaos and madness with no real Prime Minister for 7 weeks.

Social care faces collapse as soaring energy prices push up costs almost tenfold, experts warn

Care England chief said energy crisis poses "a very severe risk" to the sector unless Government steps in with "immediate and targeted" support.

inews.co.uk

I was under the impression that the UK was fairly well placed with North Sea oil and gas supplies, but this article explains the situation.

Why new North Sea oil and gas production won’t help UK energy security

Despite the insistence of industry and government, there are numerous practical reasons why expanding UK oil and gas exploration and production will NOT provide the UK with a secure supply of affordable energy. More than this, continued North Sea expansion is acting as a brake on the UK’s future...

www.stopcambo.org.uk

 

[Belli]

I was under the impression that the UK was fairly well placed with North Sea oil and gas supplies, but this article explains the situation.

Why new North Sea oil and gas production won’t help UK energy security

Despite the insistence of industry and government, there are numerous practical reasons why expanding UK oil and gas exploration and production will NOT provide the UK with a secure supply of affordable energy. More than this, continued North Sea expansion is acting as a brake on the UK’s future...

www.stopcambo.org.uk

I understand North Sea Gas production has effectively been in decline since at least 2003 although there was a slight increase between 2015 to 2017 and then resumed the downward trend. Dumbos also closed a gas storage facility in 2017. They are now "trying" to boost production.

Slam goes the stable door.

 

[sptrawler]

I was under the impression that the UK was fairly well placed with North Sea oil and gas supplies, but this article explains the situation.

Why new North Sea oil and gas production won’t help UK energy security

Despite the insistence of industry and government, there are numerous practical reasons why expanding UK oil and gas exploration and production will NOT provide the UK with a secure supply of affordable energy. More than this, continued North Sea expansion is acting as a brake on the UK’s future...

www.stopcambo.org.uk

From your article, it sounds as though the U.K has the issue the east Coast of Aus has.

There are over 200 oil and gas fields operating in theNorth Sea, which currently supply approximately half of the UK’s gas needs. No one is proposing these supplies are turned off. But, just because the gas is inUK waters, it doesn’t guarantee it will reach UK homes. Exports will continue with any new production that is brought online.

It isn’t our gas: Once licensed, North Sea oil and gas belongs to the license-holder. These are multinational, private equity- and state-backed oil and gas firms, including companies fully or partly-owned by the Russian, Iranian, Chinese, Norwegian and other governments.

Sold to the highest bidder: Because it’s not the UK’s gas, it can be sold abroad even in a crisis. Currently 80% of North Sea oil is exported because there is little demand from the country’s refineries for UK crude oil. But even gas – where there is domestic demand – is sold overseas. Towards the end of last year, just as we entered the gas crisis, theUK exported unusually large amounts of gas for the time of year because the companies that own it could get a better price elsewhere. Exports in October 2021 were the highest for that month for a decade.

 

[SirRumpole]

From your article, it sounds as though the U.K has the issue the east Coast of Aus has.

There are over 200 oil and gas fields operating in theNorth Sea, which currently supply approximately half of the UK’s gas needs. No one is proposing these supplies are turned off. But, just because the gas is inUK waters, it doesn’t guarantee it will reach UK homes. Exports will continue with any new production that is brought online.

It isn’t our gas: Once licensed, North Sea oil and gas belongs to the license-holder. These are multinational, private equity- and state-backed oil and gas firms, including companies fully or partly-owned by the Russian, Iranian, Chinese, Norwegian and other governments.

Sold to the highest bidder: Because it’s not the UK’s gas, it can be sold abroad even in a crisis. Currently 80% of North Sea oil is exported because there is little demand from the country’s refineries for UK crude oil. But even gas – where there is domestic demand – is sold overseas. Towards the end of last year, just as we entered the gas crisis, theUK exported unusually large amounts of gas for the time of year because the companies that own it could get a better price elsewhere. Exports in October 2021 were the highest for that month for a decade.

Yes, they need Mark Mcgowan over there to sort things out

 

[SirRumpole]

From your article, it sounds as though the U.K has the issue the east Coast of Aus has.

There are over 200 oil and gas fields operating in theNorth Sea, which currently supply approximately half of the UK’s gas needs. No one is proposing these supplies are turned off. But, just because the gas is inUK waters, it doesn’t guarantee it will reach UK homes. Exports will continue with any new production that is brought online.

It isn’t our gas: Once licensed, North Sea oil and gas belongs to the license-holder. These are multinational, private equity- and state-backed oil and gas firms, including companies fully or partly-owned by the Russian, Iranian, Chinese, Norwegian and other governments.

Sold to the highest bidder: Because it’s not the UK’s gas, it can be sold abroad even in a crisis. Currently 80% of North Sea oil is exported because there is little demand from the country’s refineries for UK crude oil. But even gas – where there is domestic demand – is sold overseas. Towards the end of last year, just as we entered the gas crisis, theUK exported unusually large amounts of gas for the time of year because the companies that own it could get a better price elsewhere. Exports in October 2021 were the highest for that month for a decade.

Hence their resources super profits tax , which we should consider as well.

 

[sptrawler]

Hence their resources super profits tax , which we should consider as well.

I still think the resource companies should be taxed as per the royalties, by volume, not by how much the make profit. As has been seen recently with BHP, profits can be hard to pin down, whereas if it is a benchmark arrived at volumetric tax they can decide if it is worth mining it or not. That is how the W.A gas reserve allocation was won, telling the gas field developers (Chevron from memory), if the don't like it leave it in the ground.

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-to-pay-529m-in-ato-settlement-20181119-h182zf
BHP's decision to strike a $529 million settlement with the Australian Tax Office over its Singapore marketing hub sets a precedent for other mining and energy companies fighting the ATO over transfer pricing of Australian commodities, the tax office says.

BHP confirmed the settlement on Monday and vowed to change the ownership structure of the controversial Singapore hub, which buys Australian commodities from BHP's other subsidiaries and onsells them to customers at higher prices.

 

[SirRumpole]

I still think the resource companies should be taxed as per the royalties, by volume, not by how much the make profit. As has been seen recently with BHP, profits can be hard to pin down, whereas if it is a benchmark arrived at volumetric tax they can decide if it is worth mining it or not. That is how the W.A gas reserve allocation was won, telling the gas field developers (Chevron from memory), if the don't like it leave it in the ground.

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/bhp-to-pay-529m-in-ato-settlement-20181119-h182zf
BHP's decision to strike a $529 million settlement with the Australian Tax Office over its Singapore marketing hub sets a precedent for other mining and energy companies fighting the ATO over transfer pricing of Australian commodities, the tax office says.

BHP confirmed the settlement on Monday and vowed to change the ownership structure of the controversial Singapore hub, which buys Australian commodities from BHP's other subsidiaries and onsells them to customers at higher prices.

I agree. I would tax according to the volume exported valued at the world spot price at the time of export. That would stop them transfer pricing by selling at a low rate toa subsidiary in a low tax zone that then ramps up the price to the final buyer.

 

[macca]

For my suggested developmental plant, at 30MW scale, two locations come immediately to mind.

One is here: https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-32.8121524,151.7300895,1317m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en

The facility shown there is the Newcastle gas storage owned by AGL. On site is an existing natural gas connection of decent capacity, plus of course the stored gas (as LNG) in that tank, plus it's less than 1km from the existing Tomago Aluminium smelter which has a very high capacity connection to the electricity grid.

The other is this general area: https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-34.7860483,138.507121,5150m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en

This is the outskirts of metropolitan Adelaide and present in the area covered by that image are the existing Pelican Point, Snapper Point, Osborne, Quarantine, Barker Inlet and Torrens Island B power stations along with the now closed Torrens Island A station. Also present are both major SA gas pipelines, that being the Moomba - Adelaide and Port Campbell - Adelaide pipelines, and it's a strong point for the existing SA transmission system. There are various parcels of unused land, including right next to the existing generation facilities.

Either of those tick the boxes. They're near a city, existing electricity and gas is there, there's unused land available, there's a supporting industrial base and so on. They're not the only such places but they're two that tick the boxes as a possible site for a hydrogen project to develop and test the technology at a modest but "real" scale, sort out the issues and so on before applying at scale elsewhere.

The area you show near Tomago smelter would be one place where there would be minimum opposition to it.

A lot of heavy industry in that area which is why they built the gas storage there

 

[Smurf1976]

I was under the impression that the UK was fairly well placed with North Sea oil and gas supplies, but this article explains the situation.

I'd be a bit cautious about the article given it's from a lobby group.

It's the equivalent of big business writing an article which, no surprises, says unions aren't that great. It's a foregone conclusion they're going to say that.

Ultimately though the bottom line is North Sea gas and oil production peaked years ago due to resource depletion. It's not over, and it won't be over for a long time yet, but the peak is in the past.

Just as there's still a bit of oil coming out of Bass Strait today despite production having peaked in 1985 and being downhill ever since. It's not yet zero although that day is approaching.

The basic problem anywhere, once production peaks, is that import reliance and exposure to world market pricing becomes inevitable. The UK, and Europe in general, has no realistic prospect of getting gas production back up to a level sufficient to avoid that.

Where it gets more complex is with the economics of domestic production post-peak. Using simple round figures to illustrate, suppose that imports cost $10 per x quantity.

Regardless of the actual cost of production, a domestic producer is going to argue that they also ought be paid $10 for the same volume or at least reasonably close to it. That's especially so when it comes to the more marginal fields, those which are only viable at higher prices. That gas stays in the ground if the price is held down and then imports rise even further.

Ultimately though all that's really just detail. Once the resource starts to give out the rest is really just about detail.

It's much like coal in the UK. It wasn't Margaret Thatcher who killed the industry indeed production peaked before she was even born and was well and truly in decline by the time she became PM. All she really did was akin to turning the pumps off - the ship was going to sink anyway, she just made it sink a bit faster by ceasing all efforts to bail it out but it was sinking regardless.

UK coal production peaked in 1913 at 292.03 million tonnes according to official statistics.

1929 was the last year in which production exceeded 250 million tonnes.

1963 was the last year in which production exceeded 200 million tonnes.

1970 the UK commenced importing coal, domestic production having fallen to a level that could no longer meet demand.

1971 was the last year in which production exceeded 150 million tonnes.

1979 Margaret Thatcher became PM. At that time coal production was running at 122 million tonnes per annum so 58% below the peak.

1988 was the last year in which production exceeded 100 million tonnes.

1996 was the last year in which production exceeded 50 million tonnes.

2014 was the last year in which production exceeded 10 million tonnes.

2019 production was 2.17 million tonnes, less than 1% of the peak value just over a century earlier.

So political factors may have hastened the end slightly but the industry was well and truly stuffed anyway. Thatcher didn't stop the party, she just kicked the remaining drunks out of the pub at 5am.

Whilst that's about coal, the same applies to any mineral resource. Once the high grade, easily accessible deposits are used up that's it, it's all downhill from there with increasing costs and diminishing production.

As a case in point, back to the UK well coal production in 1972 was 127 million tonnes and it remained around that level through to 1983 at 119 million tonnes. So despite throwing massive resources at it in terms of subsidies and so on during that period, all they managed to do was keep production flat. That's what happens when you're faced with having to turn to progressively harder to extract deposits as the easy ones are used up.

 

[sptrawler]

It's a shame people are so emotionally driven, rather than being logical @Smurf1976
Meanwhile we are living the dream, for how long, is the only question.

 

[Smurf1976]

I've nothing to do with them, I'm not personally the customer referred to, but this email says it all:

Dear Customer,

Please be advised that on 30 August 2022, Adrian Hunter and Robyn Erskine of Brooke Bird were appointed Joint and Several Administrators of Elysian Energy Pty Ltd and its wholly owned subsidiary Elysian Wholesale Pty Ltd.

There goes another one.

Customers will in practice be allocated to a Retailer Of Last Resort (ROLR) if they haven't switched to some other supplier of their choice. Who that ROLR is will vary with location but in short one of the big ones so AGL, Origin etc.

It's another symptom of a very troubled industry and market but if anyone reading is personally affected then my suggestion is definitely sign up with a new retailer. Even if you choose the same company you're allocated to under the ROLR process, almost certainly they'll give you a better deal if you sign up with them directly.

That is, the price AGL, Origin etc will charge under the ROLR arrangement is the default regulated price as per the process. Sign up as such and they most likely will offer a better deal, as would others.

 

[sptrawler]

There goes another one.

It is getting to the point where fairy tales need to be put on the shelf and the politicians need to start and orate from the non fiction collection.
This avoiding the reality is causing people and producers a lot of pain and uncertainty, an actual commitment to something needs to be forthcoming and a plan of how to get there is required also.
Plucking figures and dreams out of the butt needs to stop and stop soon IMO, or you people on the East Coast are going to have a third world electrical grid.

 

[SirRumpole]

It is getting to the point where fairy tales need to be put on the shelf and the politicians need to start and orate from the non fiction collection.
This avoiding the reality is causing people and producers a lot of pain and uncertainty, an actual commitment to something needs to be forthcoming and a plan of how to get there is required also.
Plucking figures and dreams out of the butt needs to stop and stop soon IMO, or you people on the East Coast are going to have a third world electrical grid.

I think the politicians need to appoint an expert panel consisting of people who don't have vested interests in any particular technology (if that is possible) and then stand back and trust the committee to do its job. Something like Infrastructure Australia in its original form before Abbott politicised it.

 

[sptrawler]

I think the politicians need to appoint an expert panel consisting of people who don't have vested interests in any particular technology (if that is possible) and then stand back and trust the committee to do its job. Something like Infrastructure Australia in its original form before Abbott politicised it.

I think you are spot on, an energy summit would have been better than the economic summit IMO, having a panel of experts who can clear up the misconceptions that some politicians seem to have, would be very beneficial.
One it would cut through the BS and secondly everyone would be on the same page, so that when one of the vested parties starts talking crap, they could be questioned rather than the ill informed blank looks that are forthcoming at the moment.
It really is time to hold some of these people to account, to back up the statements they flippantly make.

 

[wayneL]

This kinda comes up from time to time... Is this accurate? ?